Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1008. aquak9
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
aquak9 how do a foot of rain sound for ya


Keeper- give me that foot of rain over a three day period, I won't complain at all.

and uh-oh, looks like Skye agrees with ya. Now I will pay attention.
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Pretty quiet out there...no active systems.
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1006. txjac
Question please ...what quadrants is the MJO in at this time? Thanks in advance
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1005. bird72
Quoting JLPR2:


The CATL low is firing more convection today, but the EURO says it will take it some time to actually get going.


PGI48L
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Quoting Chicklit:

I see this has a 90% chance of not developing in the next 48 hours.


LOL

Is that glass half full or half empty. :)
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Quoting doorman79:


I don't know about Florida, but here in southeast La September is always a dry month. We look forward to it so we can get some work done before winter.


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Breald, no hard feelings. I trust Cosmic. Let's have fun.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here is the 120hr GFS model run any further out is useless

Reminds me a little of David- a run up the FL peninsula and into GA/SC- Except this time approaching SFL from the SW instead of SE.
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I see this has a 90% chance of not developing in the next 48 hours.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I think it was Levi earlier this year who said u use the long range to ID trends, not individual storms. So 2 weeks ago, the long-range GFS started to hint at development in the W Car. But u can't use that to say it's going to hit MX or Cuba or FL.... only that we're more likely to see storms develop in the W Car than before...

I wouldnt even look at them for that...one day they hint at something the next day they dont. Everyone just gets excited the 25% of the time it actually hints correctly. You can get such a better gauge at looking at a full sat picture and doing a hand analysis to determine the overall synoptic pattern.
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Perfectly clear night here; just outside trying the Sky Ap on the Droid... just aim it at the sky and it identifies the stars, even told me what I thought was a red star was actually Mars. Amazing.
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Quoting aquak9:
If the nutty GFS scenario verifies, you, and everyone from Key West to Virginia Beach, will get plenty of rain in the next 2 weeks.

hi savanah storm!! Now i have been waiting on the GFS for two weeks. And two weeks before that, and before that, too. The only model that has verified is the NFI model.


I don't know about Florida, but here in southeast La September is always a dry month. We look forward to it so we can get some work done before winter.
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hey, what's up in the tropics?
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may be i sould stay here all night and be lock up and play with all the new laptop would t that be fun
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
here is the 120hr GFS model run any further out is useless

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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
havent you learned after all the storms this year esspecially Matthew that long range models really tell you a whole lot of nothing? Nothing outside of 96hrs is worth looking at. Everyone in tampa was freaking over matthew before it even formed and it turned out to not even bring a drop of rain to FL.
I think it was Levi earlier this year who said u use the long range to ID trends, not individual storms. So 2 weeks ago, the long-range GFS started to hint at development in the W Car. But u can't use that to say it's going to hit MX or Cuba or FL.... only that we're more likely to see storms develop in the W Car than before...
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someone said they wouldnt be run without an invest i was just saying they would
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Show me where i stated that they would be correct. All i said is that they will be run
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aquak9 how do a foot of rain sound for ya
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havent you learned after all the storms this year esspecially Matthew that long range models really tell you a whole lot of nothing? Nothing outside of 96hrs is worth looking at. Everyone in tampa was freaking over matthew before it even formed and it turned out to not even bring a drop of rain to FL.
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Which predict 20 of every 10 storms that actually happen.


they still gonna be run tho
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Quoting aquak9:


hiyas! yeah the lightning was amazing, we barely got a few dribbles up here. We need more than a few dribbles, we need a few DAYS.

Please, ya'll...just send a nice little well-behaved TS up the florida east coast. PLEASE.
+1
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983. JLPR2


The CATL low is firing more convection today, but the EURO says it will take it some time to actually get going.
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If the nutty GFS scenario verifies, you, and everyone from Key West to Virginia Beach, will get plenty of rain in the next 2 weeks.

hi savanah storm!! Now i have been waiting on the GFS for two weeks. And two weeks before that, and before that, too. The only model that has verified is the NFI model.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I think it was just a misunderstanding. I know you both and you're both good people. Let me be the mediator, or tell me to get lost! lol
.
I saw a cloud heading west.


Thanks, CE. I will defer, per your wisdom.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting aquak9:
sigh...oh well, thanks doorman. I can face reality, I can accept reality. No storms for me.


I'm sure you will get some rain, and probably a good bit. Just no doom and gloom.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Mid-Atlantic ridge quake- not uncommon, but may signal more activity on Iceland.
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BTW, on the impending FL / Bahamas / Cuban system, local mets here are suggesting just some unsettled / rainy weather here on Wed / Thur.... they have "nice" on the forecast for Friday, which to me implies no rain and relatively cool.... guess they have more expectations from the cold front than the GFS does.... lol
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Quoting StAugustineWatcher:

Aquak
Here in Palm Valley, see the lightning, hear the thunder but no rain. Need a few drops to get caught up


hiyas! yeah the lightning was amazing, we barely got a few dribbles up here. We need more than a few dribbles, we need a few DAYS.

Please, ya'll...just send a nice little well-behaved TS up the florida east coast. PLEASE.
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Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:


You will be waiting a while, an invest has not been declared.


long range models will still be run
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Quoting aquak9:



ooo- I like THIS post. Hi LiesToTell. :)

I'm in Jacksonville....will I get ANY rain from ANYTHING tropical between now and Christmas??


Getting some rain right now here up in Savannah.

If the nutty GFS scenario verifies, you, and everyone from Key West to Virginia Beach, will get plenty of rain in the next 2 weeks.
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Did you say something? LOL

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I think it was just a misunderstanding. I know you both and you're both good people. Let me be the mediator, or tell me to get lost! lol
.
I saw a cloud heading west.


Just one cloud?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I don't.

You do know that's a major troll right?
I do apologize. I usually do not dignify any of the trolls with a legitimate response. But post#892 is the best post I have witnessed from a troll. I will refrain from any further comments.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22707
We need voice chat then we wouldn't need commas lol
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Quoting aquak9:



ooo- I like THIS post. Hi LiesToTell. :)

I'm in Jacksonville....will I get ANY rain from ANYTHING tropical between now and Christmas??

Aquak
Here in Palm Valley, see the lightning, hear the thunder but no rain. Need a few drops to get caught up
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sigh...oh well, thanks doorman. I can face reality, I can accept reality. No storms for me.
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Quoting mac3821:
CTeddy
Great explanation. I appreciate you taking the time to explain. I guess these types of systems aren't exactly typical. I have been lurking here for years but don't post much. Its nice when we can get some good info.


No problem! Always here to answer questions.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I think it was just a misunderstanding. I know you both and you're both good people. Let me be the mediator, or tell me to get lost! lol
.
I saw a cloud heading west.


That cloud has been moving west for like a week now lol.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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