Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting doorman79:


Spin,

Is it possible that maybe the energy that is in the crib right now may just find its way out little by little? Thats why the models have been going nuts for the last week?


I believe the first is a new system and the second is the remenents of Matthew.....the BAM models show this as well. Some on here laugh at the BAM models but, they are actually very good if you understand how to use them.

Here is the current BAM models.
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Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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1055. Ron5244
Quoting sammywammybamy:



TampaSpin, Hey Old Buddy!!!!

The NAM,CMC,GFS,EMWCF all Predict Hurricane Nicole will Impact South Florida in 72-84 Hours, Then Ride the East Coast.

Then Some of the Previosuly Mentioned Models Spawn Up Otto and the P Storm and also Send them into S.FLA


What are you talking about? All of those models (excluding the CMC) predict nothing more than a weak TS or a strong TD.
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1053. will40
Quoting txjac:
Thanks Will ...another question if you can please ...where is the Maritime Continent? Thanks again


Southeast Asia
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Temp

82.4(west palm beach,fl)
heat index: 89
....anyone wanna trade???

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sunlinePR.....that forecast was made yesterday. You can find it in FlDewey's blog. Post 136
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1049. txjac
Thanks Will ...another question if you can please ...where is the Maritime Continent? Thanks again
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I have never seen anything like the current Model runs. The GFS and the NGP MOdels both show dual storm forming coming out the Caribbean right behind each other just seperated by a couple of days.......WOW!


Spin,

Is it possible that maybe the energy that is in the crib right now may just find its way out little by little? Thats why the models have been going nuts for the last week?
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I have never seen anything like the current Model runs. The GFS and the NGP MOdels both show dual storm forming coming out the Caribbean right behind each other just seperated by a couple of days.......WOW!


Down to only 2 now? I think it was as high as 4 earlier.
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:)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting sammywammybamy:


IMO In October South Florida Will Get Threatened By at Least 2 Storms.

Thats Just the Setup. I Dont See it Changing Anytime Soon.

Fronts Will Stall Before they Make it to Central Florida, Creating a Channel for Tropical Systems that form in the carribean.

And the MJO.

I Belive We will see 6 more storms this year


I can agree w/ that.

I believe we'll see (1) named storm in September.

(4) named storms in October.

Up to (2) named storms between November-December.

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Quoting anyotherliestotell:


season is winding down. you know it's slow when people are hyping a "system of low pressure" that MIGHT become a weak TS.


Don't count the season off, we are still in the peak month. We've also have had a couple of surprises pop up in October.
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1041. will40



MJO
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Somewhere, there is a homertar that depicts what I want to convey.


Ahhhhhhhhhhh lol
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I have never seen anything like the current Model runs. The GFS and the NGP MOdels both show dual storm forming coming out the Caribbean right behind each other just seperated by a couple of days.......WOW!
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Quoting xcool:
Temp

69.9°F


I'm jealous!
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Quoting doorman79:


Im too old to get under the bed!


Somewhere, there is a homertar that depicts what I want to convey.
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1034. xcool
Temp

69.9°F
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1033. flsky
Quoting HarryMc:
Perfectly clear night here; just outside trying the Sky Ap on the Droid... just aim it at the sky and it identifies the stars, even told me what I thought was a red star was actually Mars. Amazing.

That's a great app! Didn't know there was such a thing.
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Hey, chick....

I think regardless of development some pple are going to get somewhat wet over the next 5 days.... lol

Anyway that's pretty much me for 2nite... unfortunately have to get up and out tomorrow when I'd rather lie in bed and watch the grass grow... again.... lol

Have a good one!

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1030. breald
Quoting tropicfreak:


Where do you live?


Southeastern Mass.
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Quoting breald:



We are going to get rain on and off starting tonight thru Thursday night.


Where do you live?
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1027. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol.

Its 67 °F (19 °C) here in Fort Worth right now.

We're expected to get down to 49-52 °F.

( For the ° , press Alt + 0176)


Now that's some nice weather
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1025. breald
Quoting tropicfreak:
We are finally getting some much needed rain! I'm expecting at least 3 if not 4" of rain for richmond metro area by Tuesday.






We are going to get rain on and off starting tonight thru Thursday night.
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1024. flsky
Quoting Chicklit:

I see this has a 90% chance of not developing in the next 48 hours.

Clever!
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I can relate. There is a place though. Sorry I may have blown your cover.


Im too old to get under the bed!
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Quoting txjac:
81 F right now in Houston ...supposed to get to 62 F tonight ...loving it


lol.

Its 67 °F (19 °C) here in Fort Worth right now.

We're expected to get down to 49-52 °F.

( For the ° , press Alt + 0176)
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Quoting doorman79:


Lol Thanks, now I have to hide from the blog police!


I can relate. There is a place though. Sorry I may have blown your cover.
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1020. txjac
81 F right now in Houston ...supposed to get to 62 F tonight ...loving it
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Off topic! Ring the bells, put out the lanterns. The end is coming! J/K, who am I to talk. LOL


Lol Thanks, now I have to hide from the blog police!
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We are finally getting some much needed rain! I'm expecting at least 3 if not 4" of rain for richmond metro area by Tuesday.



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Quoting doorman79:


I know this is off topic but I have some good friends in Ptown. We buy our product from Wayne Dalton.


Off topic! Ring the bells, put out the lanterns. The end is coming! J/K, who am I to talk. LOL
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


In 84 Hours it Takes a Hurricane into S.FLA.

And the NAM,CMC,and ECMWF do too.


Which means five days...3 days for a watch or warning....and two days for formation.
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All that energy and convection is spreading East already reaching 65W....
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Quoting PcolaDan:




We're pretty close to that here, just not quite as wet.

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1012. beell
Quoting doorman79:


LOL

Is that glass half full or half empty. :)


The glass is too big...
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Quoting PcolaDan:




I know this is off topic but I have some good friends in Ptown. We buy our product from Wayne Dalton.
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1009. aquak9
Quoting doorman79:


LOL

Is that glass half full or half empty. :)


am I gonna hafta wash that glass?
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1008. aquak9
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
aquak9 how do a foot of rain sound for ya


Keeper- give me that foot of rain over a three day period, I won't complain at all.

and uh-oh, looks like Skye agrees with ya. Now I will pay attention.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.