Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Dakster:
I gotta long day tomorrow - so good night all.

Hopefully the Dolphins win. ;)
hopefully NOT !
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Good evening all...
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Quoting RTLSNK:
..



I told you... build ponds... not above ground planters... did you listen.....No..
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


How are you Hunkerdown? Looks like at least a Wet Week ahead.
good and you ? enjoying the "less humid and cooler weather" as forecast by the NWS for PBC. Whew, 88-90 is definitely a cool down from 89-91. ok, humidity was only about 80% instead of 90-100%, somebody forgot to tell my body that...currently 82 with a heat index of 90 here :(
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Mental issues. Emotional turmoil. Loneliness. Severely depressed sense of self-worth. Total lack of social skills. Chemical imbalance. Absence of professional therapy and counseling. Self hatred. You name it...


I remember those days! Think its called puberty :)
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1098. Ron5244
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Can You Stop Attacking Me?


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
243 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-270930-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
243 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES...
...WIDESPREAD/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE MID-WEEK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY, WITH
THE THREAT FOR STORMS BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. CLOUD TO SURFACE
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS, BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL, IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS, LEADING TO A HIGH THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS, AS WELL AS VERY ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS ON THE LOCAL WATERS.



Sammy - I am not trying to attack you, whatsoever. Though I am trying to bring you to your senses. Let's face it, no more than a few days ago, you were calling for Matthew to be the next Wilma. That weather outlook may indicate gusty/rainy conditions ahead, and I am not denying that. However, a hurricane just doesn't appear likely at this point.
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1097. RTLSNK
Quoting Orcasystems:


We have gotten really lucky, all of the really bad stuff is about 100 miles north of us.


Do you need some rain? Macon has more than enough to share. :)

Statement as of 9:17 PM EDT on September 26, 2010


... Flood Watch in effect through Monday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has expanded the

* Flood Watch to include portions of central Georgia... east
central Georgia... southeast Georgia and west central Georgia.

* Through Monday afternoon

* a deepening area of low pressure aloft will rotate through
northern Mississippi and northern Alabama tonight... then into
the southern Appalachians Monday evening. A stationary front was
located across central Georgia... roughly from Fort Benning... to
Macon... to Augusta. As the upper system rotates through the
lower Mississippi Valley tonight and Monday... deep Gulf moisture
and strong dynamics will combine to produce widespread
rain... with embedded heavy rain showers and thunderstorms.

* Two to three inches of rain with isolated 3 to 4 inch totals...
have already fallen across much of central Georgia
today... especially from Americus... to Macon... to Warrenton.
Additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches can be expected overnight
and Monday across these same areas. Total rainfall amounts by
Monday afternoon could exceed 5 inches in some areas of central
Georgia. Street and Road flooding... as well as overflowing
retention ponds... have already been reported from the Warner
Robins and Perry areas this evening. Although isolated flash
flooding is possible... the main concern is general flooding of
low-lying and flood prone areas from a prolonged period of
moderate to heavy rain. Minor flooding of creeks and streams
across the Flood Watch area can also be expected. Some streets...
roads... and highways may become flooded and impassable or closed.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Remember... a Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding
based on current rainfall forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

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Blog is much better now that I've updated my troll list.... up to about 48 of them, but I'm sure JFV and Jasonisn'tcoolmanxxx probably take up about half of them.

The season is far from over, we still have a lot of unspent energy in the waters

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1093. Ron5244
Quoting TampaSpin:




GFS STorm #1


GFS Storm #2 4 days later


Thank you for clarifying my point, TampaSpin. Just as I stated - GFS is NOT showing a hurricane.
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1092. will40
there is a lot of heat in the Caribbean. Mother nature will take it somewhere. We will wait to see where she wants it
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


That Picture is OLD. Notice the Date.

That is from 95L/Pre-Matthew


Trying to pull our lariats lol
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Quoting Ron5244:


Why must you attempt to make a smart remark? Figure it out - What is a jumbo shrimp? ; )
you posted it...please, the difference between a strong and weak TD is ???
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am sure BeachFoxx will appreciate that..


Mothers see every opportunity to have their kids home again. Sigh, but I can't wish it if it means trouble for others.
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1087. Dakster
Quoting Orcasystems:


We have gotten really lucky, all of the really bad stuff is about 100 miles north of us.


that is good!
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Quoting Ron5244:


What are you talking about? All of those models (excluding the CMC) predict nothing more than a weak TS or a strong TD.




GFS STorm #1


GFS Storm #2 4 days later
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what if it develops a liitle bit west of where its forecate to then it moves north what chance of tampa being affected by heavy rain and wind
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
_If_ a storm were to hit Destin and then head east, my son who is stationed there would be able to come home for a few days. But I don't want to wish a storm on anyone...


I am sure BeachFoxx will appreciate that..
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Good evening.
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_If_ a storm were to hit Destin and then head east, my son who is stationed there would be able to come home for a few days. But I don't want to wish a storm on anyone...
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Look at this EDIT i just saw the date old sat pic.

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Quoting Ron5244:


What are you talking about? All of those models (excluding the CMC) predict nothing more than a weak TS or a strong TD.
a "strong TD", please enlighten us
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1074. Ookla
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Which means five days...3 days for a watch or warning....and two days for formation.

84 hours = 3 1/2 days
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Quoting Dakster:
Orca - what is your weather like?


We have gotten really lucky, all of the really bad stuff is about 100 miles north of us.
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1072. FLDART1
Beautiful Light show just north in Jax...
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1071. Ron5244
Quoting sammywammybamy:


The NAM Predicts a Hurricane.

Remember these Models are not good at intensity.. So a TS on the Models could bea CAT 1 Hurricane in Real Life


Well, the Western Caribbean needs to work some serious overtime in order for that forecast to hold. Its already Sunday night with not a single sign of organization, yet we're supposed to have a hurricane by Wednesday?
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS TUESDAY IN TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH MOST RAFL
PROBABLY IN WESTERN ZONES. THEN...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK...AS A SYSTEM OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL ORIGIN OR AT LEAST
WITH A TROPICAL CONNECTION MOVES NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE...POSSIBLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OR JUST OFF THE COAST. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THU THROUGH FRI. HAVE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...FOR A CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND.
for that person fl saying no talk of it here is se maas they mention it out ot the taunton nws
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1068. will40
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have been tracking those two coming from CV


yes very interesting
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I believe the first is a new system and the second is the remenents of Matthew.....the BAM models show this as well. Some on here laugh at the BAM models but, they are actually very good if you understand how to use them.

Here is the current BAM models.


When I say little by little, I mean disturbances, not hurricanes. I know its alot of rain and maybe some gusts, but better than the alternative. Thats what I"m thinking, but I'm sure Im wrong!
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Quoting will40:
Link


thats a powerful TS lol


I have been tracking those two coming from CV
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1062. Dakster
Orca - what is your weather like?
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1061. will40
Link


thats a powerful TS lol
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


The NAM Predicts a Hurricane.

Remember these Models are not good at intensity.. So a TS on the Models could bea CAT 1 Hurricane in Real Life


Using that logic.. it could be a spring shower also?
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1059. Dakster
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Temp

82.4(west palm beach,fl)
heat index: 89
....anyone wanna trade???



Me. It is hotter here... About 100 miles south f you.
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Quoting doorman79:


Spin,

Is it possible that maybe the energy that is in the crib right now may just find its way out little by little? Thats why the models have been going nuts for the last week?


I believe the first is a new system and the second is the remenents of Matthew.....the BAM models show this as well. Some on here laugh at the BAM models but, they are actually very good if you understand how to use them.

Here is the current BAM models.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.