Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1157. BDADUDE
Quoting weatherman12345:

every single model is forecasting a florida hit.. although the intensity may be a bit spread.
I see what the models are saying but it dosent look right. Remember that Matthew was supposed to hit Florida.
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Quoting weatherman12345:

every single model is forecasting a florida hit.. although the intensity may be a bit spread.


All we can basically be sure of is this... Florida will get wet...

RTLSNK will get flooded...again.

Zoo will go crazy thinking logically on here..

TS is going to get fat of he keeps eating Mickey D's

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The tropics will be here when i get back. My son and i are heading to MC'D's for a greasy burger. I guess that might be bad advertising. I hope i don't get banned...LOL
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Satellite trends this evening across the NW/SW caribbean sea aren't to encouraging even though surface pressures in the vicinity remain low. Recon tasked for tommorow could be cancelled.
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1147. RTLSNK
Quoting Orcasystems:


that river over the banks yet?
It sure floods easy


Not yet. It starts just east of Atlanta, runs south to Macon, then goes east to Savannah. Will know more tomorrow when it starts to rise.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


the first of the deep fall storms


NS, you should see what happened to Port Hardy and Port Alice.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Zoo, your using logic again.. you know that does not work around here.


I know, I know, its just so hard...like trying to tell my kids to quit fighting.
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1141. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


the first of the deep fall storms
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1140. BDADUDE
Quoting zoomiami:
Isn't it rather silly to be arguing over how strong a storm is expected on a model that projects something that hasn't even formed?

And if either one of you were to read all the information about the models you will see that intensity pre-formation is off 80% of the time.

So, something is forecasted to form, obviously Florida is in its way, but as to what and when, wait until the models initialize.

Florida wont be the target. You will see what happens when it happens and not a moment sooner.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Isn't it rather silly to be arguing over how strong a storm is expected on a model that projects something that hasn't even formed?

And if either one of you were to read all the information about the models you will see that intensity pre-formation is off 80% of the time.

So, something is forecasted to form, obviously Florida is in its way, but as to what and when, wait until the models initialize.



Zoo, your using logic again.. you know that does not work around here.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Jamaica needs to watch this.

Thanks, KtM! Which days are in range? Have a friend on vacation there.....TIA again!
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1136. will40
theres some 30 to 40 kt shear north of cuba
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Isn't it rather silly to be arguing over how strong a storm is expected on a model that projects something that hasn't even formed?

And if either one of you were to read all the information about the models you will see that intensity pre-formation is off 80% of the time.

So, something is forecasted to form, obviously Florida is in its way, but as to what and when, wait until the models initialize.

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Quoting Ron5244:


Debatable, but yes. I must point out however, that to see two tropical storms, and eventually one hurricane landfalling merely weeks apart in the same general area, would just be unprecedented.


Apparently you don't know anything about 2004! Just sayin!
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Here you go Sammy:

Link
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Quoting wagnernc:
Good evening!
Can anyone tell me in Re: to the upcoming formation(s) in the Caribbean - is Jamaica in the path or are you thinking it will stay far enough west to spare the island? TIA


Jamaica needs to watch this.
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1127. Ron5244
Quoting sammywammybamy:


The Pattern Will be in place for the next 2 weeks and Maybe even intill the end of october.

Most of the Models Show Mulitple Hits on S.FLA.

They might not all materialzie , but a few will.


Debatable, but yes. I must point out however, that to see two tropical storms, and eventually one hurricane landfalling merely weeks apart in the same general area, would just be unprecedented.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
Quoting RTLSNK:


This would fill up some really big ponds.:)


that river over the banks yet?
It sure floods easy
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Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
what if it develops a liitle bit west of where its forecate to then it moves north what chance of tampa being affected by heavy rain and wind


We could use some moisture from the remnants or tropical storm nichole.
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1124. BDADUDE
Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
what if it develops a liitle bit west of where its forecate to then it moves north what chance of tampa being affected by heavy rain and wind
Slim to absolutely none.
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Good evening!
Can anyone tell me in Re: to the upcoming formation(s) in the Caribbean - is Jamaica in the path or are you thinking it will stay far enough west to spare the island? TIA
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1122. RTLSNK
Quoting Orcasystems:


I told you... build ponds... not above ground planters... did you listen.....No..


This would fill up some really big ponds.:)
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Quoting Ron5244:


Thank you for clarifying my point, TampaSpin. Just as I stated - GFS is NOT showing a hurricane.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Thanks For Backing me up , Tampaspin


You both are correct...yes the GFS does not show a hurricane but, to say it won't would really be misleading as Sammy said the models are very poor at showing intensity without something that is not even developed. With that i would say, i would not put too much faith in any of the models with intensity until we actually have something to look at! But, shear it appears will be higher the further north a system gets coming out of the Caribbean. WHO KNOWS!
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I can guarantee a hurricane will come our way since I bought a bunch of frozen food this weekend and bought and installed a new liner in my pool! Oh and the ants are out too :)
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1117. Skyepony (Mod)


Pressure Tendency
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ATCF just deactivated Matthew, so here's his post-mortem;

MATTHEW
ACE: 1.3750
HDP: 0.0
Initial TWO: 5AM EDT 2010/09/23
Final Tropical TWO: 11AM EDT 2010/09/25
TWOs as TS: 8 (48 HOURS / 2.0 days)
TWOs as HU: 0
TWOs as MH: 0
Total TWOs: 8 (48 hours / 2.0 days)

ACE-wise, Matthew is ranked #10 (of 13), with slightly more than #11 Hermine but not quite as much as #9 Colin.

See? Aren't you glad you know all that? ;-)
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1114. Ron5244
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Okay , I See Your Point Now Taking a Second Look at the Models..

A Minimal - Moderate TS is likely.

However If You Look at all the Runs it shows a Second and third system also affecting florida.

This Pattern will stay most of october.



Yes, I have also noticed this consistent pattern. It seems as if the GFS has been sending us tropical lows for days now, whether it be short or long range. Perhaps the threat of a hurricane may come within these next crucial weeks. I mean, taking a look at the models, I see it as likely. However in the mean time, I'd be ready for Fay's little sister.
Member Since: September 1, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 671
Quoting CosmicEvents:
sunlinePR.....that forecast was made yesterday. You can find it in FlDewey's blog. Post 136


Thanks man, I was worried.... that means that I'm only 934 posts behind....
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Night Everyone!

Peace
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Quoting Orcasystems:


We have gotten really lucky, all of the really bad stuff is about 100 miles north of us.


Bad stuff?? Sheesh, we here in Richmond are welcoming at least 3 if not 4 inches of rain after a long drought, as of yesterday, we were 10.13 inches below average for the year.
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Quoting Dakster:
I gotta long day tomorrow - so good night all.

Hopefully the Dolphins win. ;)
hopefully NOT !
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.