Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting flsky:

Here are a few:
Link

Thanks man. Is the GFS the one to look at or another one?
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1207. will40
Quoting mara0921:
Thanks.. Which is the model that has been the most reliable this year? I keep reading about one that is right on this year. I am in south florida so the thought of a hurricane hitting in 3 days and noone has a clue it may happen is scary


ecmwf has been pretty good IMO
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Quoting robert88:
IMO there will be a better chance of something more intense 1-2 weeks down the road.


What is the reasoning? Will conditions become more favorable?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
Quoting Grothar:


Watched too much football all day. I'll be dreaming of green with yellow lines all night now. Did I miss anything here???


Florida becoming the next Atlantis.
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Thanks.. Which is the model that has been the most reliable this year? I keep reading about one that is right on this year. I am in south florida so the thought of a hurricane hitting in 3 days and noone has a clue it may happen is scary
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1202. Grothar
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Hey Grothar! You Watching Sunday Night Football?

No Scary GFS Runs ?


Watched too much football all day. I'll be dreaming of green with yellow lines all night now. Did I miss anything here???
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1200. flsky
Quoting mara0921:
can someone please post a link to these models you all are refering to? I follow this blog alot but am a total amateur. I do know how to read the models though. Thanks

Here are a few:
Link
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IMO there will be a better chance of something more intense 1-2 weeks down the road.
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1194. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
groth, you at it again on photoshop :)


Why do you think I haven't been on, been drawing those line for hours.
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Quoting Grothar:


I remember this well, look carefully at the dates. It is not UNPRECEDENTED: LOL

First on Cat 3; second one Cat 4



groth, you at it again on photoshop :)
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Getting some rain right now here up in Savannah.

Hey Savannah! Greetings from Liberty County! We're watching and waiting to see what the next couple weeks brings to our area too!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Im Not a Girl LOL. Sammy is a Guy's Name.

Anyway.


Oh.
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1185. will40
Quoting mara0921:
can someone please post a link to these models you all are refering to? I follow this blog alot but am a total amateur. I do know how to read the models though. Thanks




Link
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Don't forget that central Florida was directly hit by almost 3 major hurricanes in 2004. Charlie came in from the SW. Lake Wales saw 3 eyes that summer.
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Quoting weatherman12345:

that was good (fist pump)


And Gustav and Ike
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If this is all the Caribbean shows tomorrow i can almost guarantee that RECON will be canceled. 12Z ECMWF basically showed nothing. Not even a minimal TS on that run. I am becoming less optimistic about some decent development at this point. This will most likely be a monsoon trough that brings major amounts of rain to FL and possibly up the EC. The system is just way too broad at the moment.
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can someone please post a link to these models you all are refering to? I follow this blog alot but am a total amateur. I do know how to read the models though. Thanks
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Are you JFV by any chance??
no, unfortunately its not, again, please, no human food to the vermin
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1174. Grothar
Quoting sammywammybamy:


What Do you think about the GFS,ECWMF,NAM,CMC Showing Nicole Affect S.FLA and then another Storm Forming afterwards, with the GFS Showing Four Storms Hitting S.FLA?

In 72-84 Hours a Tropical System Will Hit South Florida the Models Say


I remember this well, look carefully at the dates. It is not UNPRECEDENTED: LOL

First on Cat 3; second one Cat 4



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1171. Ron5244
Quoting hunkerdown:
may I introduce you to Jeanne and Frances


May I introduce you to the number 3? Jeanne + Frances = 2 : )
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1169. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting hurricane23:


Hey sammy i do think deep tropical moisture will stream northward into sfl come mid-week. wide-spread Torrential rainfall for a prolonged period is possible.

its gonna rain hard
real hard in places
some wind too
with clouds moving
from ne to the sw
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Quoting Ron5244:


Debatable, but yes. I must point out however, that to see two tropical storms, and eventually one hurricane landfalling merely weeks apart in the same general area, would just be unprecedented.
may I introduce you to Jeanne and Frances
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Be back in a few!
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Quoting hurricane23:
Satellite trends this evening across the NW/SW caribbean sea aren't to encouraging even though surface pressures in the vicinity remain low. Recon tasked for tommorow could be cancelled.


Vorticity is coming together at every update at 850mb.


Convergence is there now that was not there.



Sorry i gotta disagree with you!
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1162. will40
Quoting BDADUDE:
I see what the models are saying but it dosent look right. Remember that Matthew was supposed to hit Florida.


that wasnt Matthew the GFS was sending northward
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


What Do you think about the GFS,ECWMF,NAM,CMC Showing Nicole Affect S.FLA and then another Storm Forming afterwards, with the GFS Showing Four Storms Hitting S.FLA?

In 72-84 Hours a Tropical System Will Hit South Florida the Models Say


Hey sammy i do think deep tropical moisture will stream northward into sfl come mid-week. wide-spread Torrential rainfall for a prolonged period is possible.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


What Do you think about the GFS,ECWMF,NAM,CMC Showing Nicole Affect S.FLA and then another Storm Forming afterwards, with the GFS Showing Four Storms Hitting S.FLA?

In 72-84 Hours a Tropical System Will Hit South Florida the Models Say


I believe at least 6 storms should hit Florida in the next month. I also believe that Rum & Coke is good. I'd rather be right about number 2. Drink up!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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