Matthew dissipates; new Western Caribbean disturbance organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of the Western Caribbean and Central America, showing the remains of Matthew over Mexico, and a large area of disturbed weather beginning to develop over the entire region.

Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa is being torn apart by wind shear, and will likely not exist by Monday morning.

A wet week for the Western Caribbean
A large region of disturbed weather is developing over the Western Caribbean and Central America today. These sorts of large low pressure systems are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not spawn a tropical storm. In October 2007, a large low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused heavy rains in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. The models predict a similar type of storm may evolve over the region over the next few days, and heavy thunderstorms from this disturbance are already affecting the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Coast Rica, and Honduras. Heavy rains will likely spread to Jamaica, Cuba, Southwest Haiti, and the Cayman Islands on Monday. These rains may be as great as 3 - 6 inches per day, and will be capable of causing dangerous flooding and mudslides. The models continue to have a poor consensus on the future evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model predicts that by late in the week, the low will get drawn north-northeastwards over Cuba and into South Florida and the Bahamas, and may not develop into a tropical storm. At the other extreme is the GFS model, which predicts that the low will spawn a series of two or three tropical storms over the next ten days, with each of these storms moving northwards across Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The first of these storms would organize on Monday, moving over South Florida by Wednesday, and would likely be at strongest a 50-mph tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate anything that might develop over the Western Caribbean on Monday afternoon. NHC is giving a 10% chance that something might develop in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1258. will40
Quoting RainyEyes:
Okay guys I am confused. The local news said that SWFL will be wet on wednesday and thursday but "definitely" not looking like it will be a tropical system...then they said once that moisture is out of the way we will settle into some drier weather that will usher in the fall season weather patterns (meaning lower rain chances and cooler weather) YET I read Dr. masters post that says we may have 3 systems moving over south florida in the next week? Can someone explain (with a decent amount of expertise) what I should expect here? I work, have kids in sports and have little time for last minute preperations which is what my gut instict is telling me will happen. That I wake up one day over the next couple of weeks to a chicken little book story? Thanks in advance.


you need beel to post that graphic again of precip
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Quoting scott39:
I was born in SE Fl and lived there until I was 10 years old and didnt even know what a hurricane was. Moved to AL, and was there for 1 month when we experienced a strong Cat 3 at landfall. You just never know!


Scott what part of AL? I was born&raised in Tampa,Fla and know live in Bama. My dad was a Huge Dolphin Fan, When Don Shula was coach and Bob Griese and Joe Namenth played. They used to come to my dad's house. Dad was good friends with Mr Don. I still watch the Fins.
sheri
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Quoting RainyEyes:
Okay guys I am confused. The local news said that SWFL will be wet on wednesday and thursday but "definitely" not looking like it will be a tropical system...then they said once that moisture is out of the way we will settle into some drier weather that will usher in the fall season weather patterns (meaning lower rain chances and cooler weather) YET I read Dr. masters post that says we may have 3 systems moving over south florida in the next week? Can someone explain (with a decent amount of expertise) what I should expect here? I work, have kids in sports and have little time for last minute preperations which is what my gut instict is telling me will happen. That I wake up one day over the next couple of weeks to a chicken little book story? Thanks in advance.
I'd go with your local mets.
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1255. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency

DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER MALAKAS (T1012)
52.0šN 166.0šE - 972 hPa

SUBJECT: In Sea East Of Kamchatka Peninusula
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1254. beell
Quoting JupiterFL:


Now thats a lot of rain.


It may be just right for most over 5 days time-if it's accurate.
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Okay guys I am confused. The local news said that SWFL will be wet on wednesday and thursday but "definitely" not looking like it will be a tropical system...then they said once that moisture is out of the way we will settle into some drier weather that will usher in the fall season weather patterns (meaning lower rain chances and cooler weather) YET I read Dr. masters post that says we may have 3 systems moving over south florida in the next week? Can someone explain (with a decent amount of expertise) what I should expect here? I work, have kids in sports and have little time for last minute preperations which is what my gut instict is telling me will happen. That I wake up one day over the next couple of weeks to a chicken little book story? Thanks in advance.
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Let's check back in on the Doom:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10978
1250. will40
Quoting Grothar:


Thought no one would ever ask, look at what is coming off Africa



still wet over there i c
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Later all, will check in in the morning to see how our ghost storm is fairing... I reckon it will will be ramped up to a Cat 5 by 07:00 LOL
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1247. Grothar
Quoting will40:
Groth its time for the Globe


Thought no one would ever ask, look at what is coming off Africa

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Quoting beell:
5 Day QPF
00Z Monday through 00Z Saturday


Link


Now thats a lot of rain.
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1245. NRAamy
Yes, dashboard cowman.....thank God for small favors....

;)


But I have it polished and ready to go just incase.....

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1244. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Gro, We tried to post the german version of Neun und Nuenzig, Luftballons for you. Haven't quite found it. But we're thinking of you.


The German version is much better. The English words didn't make much sense. I have the lyrics in German. Ein wunderbares Lied.

Link
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1242. will40
Groth its time for the Globe
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1241. beell
5 Day QPF
00Z Monday through 00Z Saturday


Link
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Well then put on your Depends 'cause you are insinuating too much **** on here.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10978
Quoting Grothar:


Why do you think I haven't been on, been drawing those line for hours.


Gro, We tried to post the German version of Neun und Nuenzig Luftballons for you. Haven't quite found it. But we're thinking of you.
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1238. BDADUDE
Quoting JupiterFL:


Kind of like your weather reports from Bermuda?
I dont understand what you are trying to say?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Sammy...go to bed and get ready for school...Grothar...put on your diapers and get ready for bed.
he was asleep, he had to get up to have his adult briefs changed (it was that time of night)
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1236. Grothar
It's nice being called a dude at my age. I am tired of these little 50 year olds asking me if they can help me cross the street.
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1234. xcool
lmaoo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
My only fear is a last minute call on the storm -which ever and whenever it might be- Most people are not prepared. Hoping that if anything develops anywhere, it will be minimal.
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EURO and CMC computer models develop the disturbance at 12N 35W and move it toward the lesser antilles.
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1230. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Sammy...go to bed and get ready for school...Grothar...put on your diapers and get ready for bed.


I DON'T wear diapers, Geoff. They are called depends.
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1228. will40
Quoting Grothar:


Funny, Mrs. Grothar says the same thing sometimes.


does she say the intensity is too low lol?
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1227. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
multiple storms heading to FL, no storms heading to FL, rain heading to FL, plenty of heat and energy in Caribbean, season's kaput, Fl spared again, models on cocaine, precedent vs. unprecedented, TampaSpins going for a greasy one from MickeyDs, fins will win, vs fins will lose, "Who Dats" hiding in the closet...I think that only from the last page or two


You summarize quite well. Thanks for the update. You should write the NHC bulletins. They might be more understandable.
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Quoting Grothar:


Funny, Mrs. Grothar says the same thing sometimes.


Here we go.... LOL
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1224. NRAamy
Rain rain rain!!!! You guys really know how to torture a girl.....
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Quoting BDADUDE:
i think your model is flawed dude.


Kind of like your weather reports from Bermuda?
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1221. scott39
I was born in SE Fl and lived there until I was 10 years old and didnt even know what a hurricane was. Moved to AL, and was there for 1 month when we experienced a strong Cat 3 at landfall. You just never know!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
THanks everyone. I see what your talking about. Thursday might be a very nasty day in miami
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1219. BDADUDE
Quoting Grothar:
GFS 84 hours



GFS 126 hours



GFS 240 hours

i think your model is flawed dude.
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1217. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Florida becoming the next Atlantis.


Only the part that will be under water.
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Quoting mara0921:
Thanks.. Which is the model that has been the most reliable this year? I keep reading about one that is right on this year. I am in south florida so the thought of a hurricane hitting in 3 days and noone has a clue it may happen is scary

I live in SoFla myself. Expect a lot of rain at the minimum. From reading the posts of those on here that are not alarmists or 'trolls', that is what I am understanding. The models are not good at showing intensity, so that is up in the air. Just keep your eyes on the tropics and stay alert...
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Quoting Grothar:


Watched too much football all day. I'll be dreaming of green with yellow lines all night now. Did I miss anything here???
multiple storms heading to FL, no storms heading to FL, rain heading to FL, plenty of heat and energy in Caribbean, season's kaput, Fl spared again, models on cocaine, precedent vs. unprecedented, TampaSpins going for a greasy one from MickeyDs, fins will win, vs fins will lose, "Who Dats" hiding in the closet...I think that only from the last page or two
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1213. Grothar
GFS 84 hours



GFS 126 hours



GFS 240 hours

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Quoting PcolaDan:


Uhhh, not always. Link


Nice! LOL
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Quoting mara0921:
Thanks.. Which is the model that has been the most reliable this year? I keep reading about one that is right on this year. I am in south florida so the thought of a hurricane hitting in 3 days and noone has a clue it may happen is scary

guys!!!i'm also in sfla is it really in 3 days..got to go to publix for food and vodka
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Quoting flsky:

Here are a few:
Link

Thanks man. Is the GFS the one to look at or another one?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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