Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.

Jeff Masters

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2514. sunlinepr
10:49 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Checking the satellite, seems like nothing is forming..... but reading the blog seems like a new blog is forming.... any link for that model???
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9715
2513. StuartLurker
5:57 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting seflagamma:
I should be getting very worried here in Broward County, but for some reason,
it is sort of like the kid who cried wolf too many times...


I will believe all this developement when it happens....


when we have a solid 3-5 day "cone of doom" then I will get interested.


until then I am NOT going to tell people like I have all summer
"next weekend we are going to have a storm on our doorstep"..

been made a fool several times already by these long range models.



Finally...a voice of logic and reason. Thank you, Gams.
Member Since: September 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
2512. mbjjm
5:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
new blog
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
2511. FLWeatherFreak91
5:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
thanks FLWeatherFreak91...what do u think about the wind we could get.
Well, even if this storm isn't very strong when it hits Florida, the entire state is going to have gusty winds due to the tight pressure gradient around the front.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
2510. CosmicEvents
5:41 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
There is now a 100% chance of a new blog forming.
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5533
2509. surfmom
5:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Hey Get any good waves this year?
Nope, NADA -nothing even close to memorable...but it ain't over yet obviously --always the fine line of "Be careful what you wish for"
Finally got enough personal clearance in life to plan a trip to the other side -- and now my backyard is starting to look like an incubator
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
2508. xcool
5:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
newewwwww BLOGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
2507. IKE
5:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
...10 PERCENT......so much for a higher pct.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2506. swlaaggie
5:36 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Didn't they do that last week too? Serious question - not trying to troll or anything. Just that I happen to really relate to what Gamma is saying.


agree, I think she has the correct philosophy

:-)
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
2505. MiamiHurricanes09
5:36 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all



What's your take on the first system the GFS is showing. It keeps it very frontal looking with multiple vort centers. Not sure what to make of it.
Good afternoon SJ.

It gets picked up by a shortwave trough so, dry air will follow the trough. You can tell that the model sees this because the entire western semicircle of this system seems rather convection-less and dry while the eastern semicircle is more moist. Looks to turn non-tropical in about 96 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2504. utilaeastwind
5:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME:
PRE NICOLE ATY THE 2 PM TWO
A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. 50%


INVST 2pm
Member Since: October 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
2503. CaptnDan142
5:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting seflagamma:


Thank you.. you understand.

yes, I cannot count the amount of "long range models" this season that have headed storms to Florida and they never even get close..
well except for TS Bonnie which was not much worse than an afternoon thunderstorm.. I lost one weak branch off of a tree...



Yup, I guess we will see what we will see... Just not gonna do much more than wait.
And Thanks Sammy - Appreciate that recap.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
2502. barbamz
5:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
New blog!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5681
2501. cirrocumulus
5:34 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Nicole forming?

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
2500. swlaaggie
5:34 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh, I see what you mean now. Well there is only about 5-20 knots of westerly shear over the system, however, the models forecast that an anticyclone develop atop the system tomorrow. This would allow for a more favorable upper level environment dominate.


Patient man. thanks.

Going back to the CIMMS shear map, there is a yellow circle with a 30 embedded in the circle. Does this mean there are 30 knots of shear within that circle? If so, and that circle lays over a good portion of the NHC 10 percent area, then could that be part of the reason they give only a 10 percent chance for development right now.

I know it can/will change and I know you said 5-20 knots(which is part of my confusion because it differs from the way I read the CIMMS shear map).

tia
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
2499. xcool
5:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
GFS so confusion
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
2498. Zorfwaddle
5:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting PcolaDan:

Guess I'm on the wrong end of town. If I got a trace that's a lot.


Yeah, it wasn't too much over here (Perdido Key/Warrington), but it did help. I wanted more to get out of BBQ'ing ribs for dinner, but hey, everything is a trade-off :-)
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
2497. InTheCone
5:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
My personal take is that this will get tagged as an invest by tonight sometime so that models can be initialized and more attention can be focused on this.

There isn't going to be much time for people to prepare should that need arise, and as an invest people will pay more attention - plus the news people will have something to focus on.

Just my opinion.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
2496. TropicalBruce
5:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
I'm not the least bit worried about computer models predicting multiple strikes on S. Florida. There's nothing more than a broad area of low pressure in the W. Caribbean. Of course, it could consolidate into a tropical cyclone, but it could merely stay weak and not do much at all except give more rain. It's just a watch situation right now, nothing more.
Member Since: May 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
2495. seflagamma
5:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Didn't they do that last week too? Serious question - not trying to troll or anything. Just that I happen to really relate to what Gamma is saying.


Thank you.. you understand.

yes, I cannot count the amount of "long range models" this season that have headed storms to Florida and they never even get close..
well except for TS Bonnie which was not much worse than an afternoon thunderstorm.. I lost one weak branch off of a tree...

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
2493. ChillinInTheKeys
5:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
New Blog!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
2492. CyclonicVoyage
5:31 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all



What's your take on the first system the GFS is showing. It keeps it very frontal looking with multiple vort centers. Not sure what to make of it.


At the end of the day, I think it will be one system then another a week out. GFS is having a hard time dealing with the heat and thus produces several lows in response. My take on things if you don't mind.

Things should become more clear starting tonight and moreso on Monday, IMO.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
2490. seflagamma
5:31 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting swlaaggie:


Amen to that. Watch, see and have a super day all the while.


Thank you I am...

don't get me wrong, I am a certified weather geek and
I will be here with the rest of you watching and waiting...
but just not going to go out "pronouncing" the coming doom until I think we are really close!

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
2489. CaptnDan142
5:30 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Hey Gamma,

The Reason why im Excited/Worried is because the NAM/CMC/GFS Have all come agrement on track.

They all take Nicole across Exreme South Florida.

This is my Reasoning.


Didn't they do that last week too? Serious question - not trying to troll or anything. Just that I happen to really relate to what Gamma is saying.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
2488. PcolaDan
5:29 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting Zorfwaddle:


Ooo, that's ugly, hopefully that will not be the case.

Speaking of cases, here you go sammy:

Link

Nice day today in Pensacola, after the rain went away this morning. Looked like it was going to be ugly all day.

Guess I'm on the wrong end of town. If I got a trace that's a lot.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2486. MiamiHurricanes09
5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting swlaaggie:


Agree. My real point is that in the area of potential development(NHC 10 percent area), there is 30 knots of shear. Between your point on convergence and the high current shear, that may explain why the NHC is giving only a 10 percent chance for now.

Sometimes hard to explain over a board. Thanks for the patience.
Oh, I see what you mean now. Well there is only about 5-20 knots of westerly shear over the system, however, the models forecast that an anticyclone develop atop the system tomorrow. This would allow for a more favorable upper level environment dominate.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2485. seflagamma
5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Sammy,
I will get "worried" once we are in a 3 day cone.. until then, they all go elsewhere or dissipate from these long range models.

I am "prepared" so I do not need a week to get ready... I can get ready in less than 24 hours to just "top off" the last minute stuff.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
2484. swlaaggie
5:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting seflagamma:
I should be getting very worried here in Broward County, but for some reason,
it is sort of like the kid who cried wolf too many times...


I will believe all this developement when it happens....


when we have a solid 3-5 day "cone of doom" then I will get interested.


until then I am NOT going to tell people like I have all summer
"next weekend we are going to have a storm on our doorstep"..

been made a fool several times already by these long range models.



Amen to that. Watch, see and have a super day all the while.
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
2483. StormJunkie
5:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Afternoon all

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z CMC has an intense hurricane making landfall along southeastern Florida in 84 hours (4 days).



What's your take on the first system the GFS is showing. It keeps it very frontal looking with multiple vort centers. Not sure what to make of it.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15723
2481. matilda101
5:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
In reference to three tropical systems hitting S Florida by one of the models....go back to 2004 and the city of Lake Wales Florida was hit by three hurricanes that year Charlie, Fran, and Jeanne. Up until that time many residents in central Florida believed they were somewhat immune to hurricanes. 2004 proved everyone wrong.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 281
2480. Seflhurricane
5:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:
I Say 30% at 2PM.

Predictions?
40 %
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
2478. surfmom
5:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting GS121:
just need all this mess to be done in exactly 14 days. do not want to battle disney with rain all freaking week
speaking from experience up side is No lines or Sunburn...bring the rain gear - pack a dry set of clothes & leave it in the lockers.... if the kids are old enough it can be an adventure - if they're in diaps.... a wet load will have new meaning...saying this w/ a smile -- been there
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
2477. swlaaggie
5:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
On the NHC website they give a percentage of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours...that's the circle that you see on their website that has 10%.

The CIMSS wind shear map is a completely different thing. That indicates what upper level conditions are like in the tropical Atlantic.


Agree. My real point is that in the area of potential development(NHC 10 percent area), there is 30 knots of shear. Between your point on convergence and the high current shear, that may explain why the NHC is giving only a 10 percent chance for now.

Sometimes hard to explain over a board. Thanks for the patience.
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
2475. seflagamma
5:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
I should be getting very worried here in Broward County, but for some reason,
it is sort of like the kid who cried wolf too many times...


I will believe all this developement when it happens....


when we have a solid 3-5 day "cone of doom" then I will get interested.


until then I am NOT going to tell people like I have all summer
"next weekend we are going to have a storm on our doorstep"..

been made a fool several times already by these long range models.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
2474. tea3781
5:22 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Visible loop of AOI, speed up using "Faster"


definetly a low has formed looks like it is moving to the NNW
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 455
2473. MiamiHurricanes09
5:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting swlaaggie:


Sorry, it was a question. Per the CIMMS site, it shows a circle of 30 knot shear right in the same area as the 10 percent chance in the NHC update. Question is, am I reading that correctly? Please feel free to correct. That's how I learn.
On the NHC website they give a percentage of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours...that's the circle that you see on their website that has 10%.

The CIMSS wind shear map is a completely different thing. That indicates what upper level conditions are like in the tropical Atlantic.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2472. CaptnDan142
5:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:
The CMC, GFS, And Nam are in Agreement Now:

Look:

CMC:



GFS:



NAM


Looks like the shields are holding. I've lived here for 21 years - ain't seen a thing yet. Not to say the entire Panhandle has been clear, but Panama City is starting to seem like a decent place.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
2471. Seflhurricane
5:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
based on visible images the midlevel low appears to be working down to the surface looks at the bands forming to the south and east, and it has plenty of moisture to work with from the carribean and from the pacific thanks to EX matthew
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
2470. 7544
5:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
wow models not backing off could so fla get two in a row time to check your supplies the tlak is getting over all over now

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6693
2469. swlaaggie
5:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't understand?


Sorry, it was a question. Per the CIMMS site, it shows a circle of 30 knot shear right in the same area as the 10 percent chance in the NHC update. Question is, am I reading that correctly? Please feel free to correct. That's how I learn.
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
2466. xcool
5:17 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
lol gfs 12z
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
2465. Seflhurricane
5:17 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z CMC has an intense hurricane making landfall along southeastern Florida in 84 hours (4 days).

could this be the system forming north of honduras ???
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
2464. Zorfwaddle
5:16 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:



Now the Question is: Is The GFS on Steriods? Or Could it really Happen


Ooo, that's ugly, hopefully that will not be the case.

Speaking of cases, here you go sammy:

Link

Nice day today in Pensacola, after the rain went away this morning. Looked like it was going to be ugly all day.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 14

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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