Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.

Jeff Masters

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Not sure what my kids (teens) are going to do tomorrow morning. It's supposed to be in the 50's with the cold front coming down. They've been wearing jackets in the mornings for 70!

Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
not ruling out one more major for the season.

I am.


The Caribbean is still very very warm.
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:
good news is, tampa, which NEVER gets hurricanes, won't get one again this year. a weak and soppy low or TC could cross extreme south florida but that's about it. all this "well this one didn't pan out, but the NEXT one looks bad, florida watch out" none-sense is getting old. season's almost over.


I've been hearing that the next one will be bad for the past 25 years.
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Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
I still think the storm behind developing Nicole will be the bigger story in a week, but we will see. Florida needs to start paying attention.

Speaking of Florida, to those that follow hockey, I was in Boston last night at the Bruins pre-season game and they were playing the Florida Panthers, they showed a ton of energy and desire to play. The Panthers have had terrible teams past few years, but looks like the playoff drought may come to an end this year. Good luck this season, and Good luck to the Miami Dolphins. Beat those jets, I am a die hard Giants fan so I want to see them get crushed down there in Opa Locka!
die hard hocky fan and ex player (not pro)...pre-season means absolutely nothing. it nothing but a mere evaluation of the players, their talents and skills. The panthers still lack what is most needed to win. the only component that currently have is the net minder, and with their lack of consistent ability he gets flat worn out by the last quarter of the season. They have no veteran leadership, not top-skilled players, no playmakers, insufficient coach and no chemistry.
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Quoting boxer01:
anyone have storm's link?
FDLE.GOV
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Ok Jeff... a new Blog would be nice :)

Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
I think he meant between his toes.
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2206. eddye
we are having a meeting in tropics chat come in everybody
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2205. MahFL
Wow a yellow circle already in the Caribbean.
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Quoting reedzone:


We'll probably tag Invest 96L in a time frame of tonight into the morning. Matthew is dissipating and should lean more towards the low developing north of Honduras. I have to go to work now, I'll be back tonight.


Thanks and have a good day at work.
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Quoting Katelynn:


Google this exact phrase, quotes and all....

"I told him that they could take WU and stick it where the sun don’t shine"


funniest post in weeks....
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Unblock his comment 2185 I'm not getting between a Marine and a Gator.
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Quoting Katelynn:


Google this exact phrase, quotes and all....

"I told him that they could take WU and stick it where the sun don’t shine"
I thought you were joking but I tried it anyway and sure enough it worked. LOL
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Hi Reed. What do you think of his soupy mix in the Caribbean? I know Mathew's remains will flow northward just as you've stated before.


We'll probably tag Invest 96L in a time frame of tonight into the morning. Matthew is dissipating and should lean more towards the low developing north of Honduras. I have to go to work now, I'll be back tonight.
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State of emergency lifted after north Vancouver Island hit with slides, flooding
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting boxer01:
anyone have storm's link?


Google this exact phrase, quotes and all....

"I told him that they could take WU and stick it where the sun don’t shine"
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I'm starting to think that due to the broadness of this low pressure area in the Caribbean that it may not have the potential to spin up in to anything very strong, but may instead just form a weak, broad low and move up in to Florida, giving us some pretty heavy rain in to this upcoming week and the next with some gusty winds. The Miami NWS Office seems to be thinking this as well, in their forecast discussion
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Quoting Patrap:


Just rub it in, Pat. ;)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ASCAT is likely to catch the entire western Caribbean...or at least the disturbance that we're monitoring. That should give us a good clue as to what is going on at the surface within this large monsoonal gyre.
When you say there is a wind shift do you mean winds coming out from a different direction ? If that is how it is then the buoy in the western Caribbean the winds have gone from e,ese,s and now ssw.
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Thank you, Reed. I've read your additional comments and got my answer.
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Quoting nash28:
Morning all. I hope the models verify. Nothing catastrophic mind you. Just need the rain here in Charleston. Could use a weak low pressure soaker riding the coast.


we're gettin' soaked out here on the islands...
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Read the earlier discussion on the long range models and would agree not to put too much faith in them. This may be an isolated case, but this GFS from about 8 days ago is pretty close to what is currently there. This would be valid at 8PM tonight.

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Quoting reedzone:


What the hell dude? You get over yourself, have a good day, I'm out for now. Trying to keep peace on here is freakin impossible.


Hi Reed. What do you think of his soupy mix in the Caribbean? I know Mathew's remains will flow northward just as you've stated before.
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2188. Patrap
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Pat,
You have a sign over my parish, but the rain is heading in the wrong direction!



A squall line should develop upstream later above Baton Rouge and come thru with the front..

at least thats what the NWS Guru's are saying.

Im going to the Dome to fry some Falcons.

Later all.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
2187. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Another possible track (NOT INTENSITY) for this system, develops off the Yucatan, meanders a little in the NW Caribbean before going NE. Similar to what the latest CMC run showed.


Link
The center seems to be presenting itself north of Honduras. The outflow continues to improve as the 200 mb high becomes established..Our system could intensify faster then forecasted , depending of course on the strength and configuration of that high pressure area. I am surprised how quickly all of this is happening.
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Back for a little bit, got work soon. Darn, I don't like to miss church. Anyways, we should see 96L by tonight or tomorrow morning. A track north into the Eastern Gulf sounds about right, all depends on the timing. I believe we could see a few named storms the next two weeks. The pattern is right, things are looking favorable with all the heat focused in the Western Caribbean, not ruling out one more major for the season.
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2185. Patrap
Quoting gordydunnot:
Patrap thank you for the CaneFever site you posted earlier. If it ain't there it ain't. The Cimss predict support page is the best in my book.


Sure thing canefever links.

www.canefever.com:links


www.canefever.com

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
Quoting Patrap:


Pat,
You have a + sign over my parish, but the rain is heading in the wrong direction!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3125
2183. gator23
Quoting gordydunnot:
Patrap thank you for the CaneFever site you posted earlier. If it ain't there it ain't. The Cimss predict support page is the best in my book.

show me the link. I have Patrap blocked.
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2182. Seastep
2162. Patrap

Braggart.
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Patrap thank you for the CaneFever site you posted earlier. If it ain't there it ain't. The Cimss predict support page is the best in my book.
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2180. gator23
.
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2179. GetReal
No just saying eventually one, or more of these models will be correct, and it will happen... Nothing more... Eventually the models will get it right.
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2177. gator23
Quoting GetReal:
Floridacasting a TC will eventually, one day, will be a correct forecast...

And NOLA casting will one day, result in the death of the blog. Oops Too late. TC Bonnie hit Florida btw.
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2176. icmoore
The National Weather Service's 7 day forcast for NE FL today mentions the "potential for heavy rainfall Thurs. into Fri."

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY...AND A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...
BUT A FEW ROTATING CELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH FLORIDA.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY WHICH
WILL FOCUS HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO
WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE OVER THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE NEARS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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2175. gator23
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
I still think the storm behind developing Nicole will be the bigger story in a week, but we will see. Florida needs to start paying attention.

Speaking of Florida, to those that follow hockey, I was in Boston last night at the Bruins pre-season game and they were playing the Florida Panthers, they showed a ton of energy and desire to play. The Panthers have had terrible teams past few years, but looks like the playoff drought may come to an end this year. Good luck this season, and Good luck to the Miami Dolphins. Beat those jets, I am a die hard Giants fan so I want to see them get crushed down there in Opa Locka!

Its Miami Gardens but I agree with your point
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ASCAT is likely to catch the entire western Caribbean...or at least the disturbance that we're monitoring. That should give us a good clue as to what is going on at the surface within this large monsoonal gyre.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2173. Patrap
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
2172. GetReal
Floridacasting a TC will eventually, one day, be a correct forecast...
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What's this wet stuff out my window? Haven't seen this for a while.

Only took 5 weeks to see the new rain gauge actually get to report something. CMC is telling me it might be in for a workout next week.
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2170. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
Ex-Karen at 28n 54w is sneaking back to the future,Should have left that yellow circle where they had it and put another on in Caribbean at 20%.
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2168. Patrap
Google it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
2166. Patrap
We need a disaster Fla. Featured Blogger..


Sheesh,,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
...LISA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 29.1W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM NNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Discussion:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 261431
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 26 2010

LISA HAS LOST NEARLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND NOW CONSISTS
PRIMARILY OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. AN 1104 UTC ASCAT
OVERPASS CAPTURED THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWED
A SMALL AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS DATA AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 25 C...AND
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF LISA...THEREFORE...DEGENERATION TO A
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE
REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT.
LISA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS STEERED
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER WESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
AGAIN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 25.6N 29.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 26.4N 29.8W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 27/1200Z 27.5N 30.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 28/0000Z 28.7N 31.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 28/1200Z 29.8N 31.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 29/1200Z 31.3N 31.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.