Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
180 hours:



Well, that's a big one. Looks like it going to be rather wet around here the next 2 weeks.
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NCAR WRF 120 hours

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Three landfalling systems on SF on the 12z GFS it looks like.

Florida is going to get it come October.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32080
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Otto just off the coast of Florida, Paula firing up in the NW Caribbean at 156 hours.


Going to be dark in the house for quite some time if that holds true!

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192 hours:

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See you'll later go dolphins kill the jets. Sorry for the graphic content of the above comment.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks to have a TD/TS in between. This one isn't any stronger than 40mph one could argue.

126 hours:



Didn't even see that one. I was talking about the one after that I guess.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wasn't "Nicole" the first one?
Nicole is long gone in 156 hours. The one just off of Florida would be Otto and Paula in the NW Caribbean.
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Ex Julia must of gotten more than a little jolt from Igor up there, before they parted ways.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z GFS develops "Nicole" into a TS and makes landfall on Florida. Next, it develops another low into "Otto" in the NW Caribbean and lets that one meander and get stronger than the first one did.
Looks to have a TD/TS in between. This one isn't any stronger than 40mph one could argue (gets stronger later in the run).

126 hours:

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Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Not true...... Channel 10 has been mentioning a possible tropical system heading to Florida this coming week and we should pay attention.


WPTV 5 (West Palm Beach's NBC) has also mentioned that we need to stay alert and watch the system. The cheif met posted on his Facebook page saying the system is getting better organized this morning.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Otto just off the coast of Florida, Paula firing up in the NW Caribbean at 156 hours.


Wasn't "Nicole" the first one?
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12z GFS develops "Nicole" into a TS and makes landfall on Florida. Next, it develops another low into "Otto" in the NW Caribbean and lets that one meander and get stronger than the first one did.
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Latest Levi32 update in here:

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9814
A hurricane in the NW Caribbean in 162 hours:

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Most likely a typo, they should issue a correction later.

Thank you
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Otto just off the coast of Florida, Paula firing up in the NW Caribbean at 156 hours.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24042
Most interesting is the water vapor loop. The trough/front is plunging southward maybe a long winter for some people if that pattern remains.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 27 SEPTEMBER 2010

Yes, it says Sunday


The valid dates are also two days ahead instead on one.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
This is interesting. So we'll get Matthew, Nicole and Otto from the same spot? Wow.
Not scientific by any mean but from watching satellite loops over the years when an area is conducive to formation, that tendacy lasts for weeks sometimes, generating or nearly generating tropical systems.
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2343. will40
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 27 SEPTEMBER 2010

Yes, it says Sunday


Yes my bad i see the mistake now ty
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4238
2342. will40
3rd system is the biggest according to GFS
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4238
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is interesting. So we'll get Matthew, Nicole and Otto from the same spot? Wow.

Yeah seems very Western Pacific like...very unusual in the Atlantic 3 systems in such a short period hitting the same area, that would be unbelievable that if happens.
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Quoting will40:


doesnt say sunday just says 9/27 which is tomorrow
Quoting will40:


doesnt say sunday just says 9/27 which is tomorrow
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 27 SEPTEMBER 2010

Yes, it says Sunday
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Quoting Abacosurf:
I just tuned up the Generator and made sure the shutters are in order.

All I need is about 2 hours to put up the shutters and I am done.

Naples here.


Yep, I will be in high gear tomorrow as we see what is what, am all ready except for putting up shutters - WPB here. Better to be safe than sorry!
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Quoting PompanoDonna:

That says Sun 09/27, this is Sun 09/26?


Most likely a typo, they should issue a correction later.
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Quoting robj144:
So none of the south FLA news sites have anything about the possibility of a hurricane hitting us. If it forms on Tuesday, a day warning would not be good. What do you guys think the chances are of this coming to fruition? Should I start to warn people now, so we can beat everyone to the stores?


Not true...... Channel 10 has been mentioning a possible tropical system heading to Florida this coming week and we should pay attention.
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Quoting InTheCone:


My suggestion would be to err on the side of caution and tell folks to be ready for something to head this way. Play it safe and be ready!
I just tuned up the Generator and made sure the shutters are in order.

All I need is about 2 hours to put up the shutters and I am done.

Naples here.
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2335. will40
Quoting PompanoDonna:

That says Sun 09/27, this is Sun 09/26?


doesnt say sunday just says 9/27 which is tomorrow
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At 120 hours, a second much weaker system is about to make landfall over extreme southwestern Florida. A third system is developing in the western Caribbean. This one seems more intense.

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Quoting will40:


12Z GFS has first system as TS up east coast and then starts developement of another system south of Cuba at 126 hrs
This is interesting. So we'll get Matthew, Nicole and Otto from the same spot? Wow.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
North Florida Getting Drought Ending Rain:

IKE Must be Proud.





We're in the neighborhood of a 6" deficit on rain here, for September alone. Not sure it'll catch us up, but it sure won't hurt.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
What do we call that up there southeast of Bermuda at roughly 28N 54W, the bride of Frankenstein?

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#2 and #3 on GFS....

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Take your pick. It depends on which butterfly goes where. The "remnant low" is still supposed to be the catalyst of the next hurricane. Even more so since the NHC claimed it would dissipate. It's still active in the mountains of Central America. lol

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12z GFS has a pretty decent tropical storm, maybe a minimal hurricane making landfall over extreme southwestern Florida.

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2327. IKE
4 day/96 hour GFS....

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Quoting osuwxguynew:


Afternoon All!

The best part of that model run is the steering flow is oriented almost N-S at 84 hours...meaning that system would drag all the way up the East Coast. Granted it's not too strong and will have some southerly shear but could be a big rain/some wind to much of the seaboard...


Some wind? Looking at that looks like a lot of wind.
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Hmmm.... mostly seeing comments about NAM so far, which I wouldn't swear by as a hurricane predictor by itself.

I'm still trying to figure if this'll get going quickly enough to bring hurricane force winds to the NW Bahamas this weekend.... I have plans which do not include hunkering down for the first weekend in October.... lol
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 27/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 28/0245Z
D. 19.0N 85.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION FOR 29/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF
AT 28/1730Z.
3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 27/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

That says Sun 09/27, this is Sun 09/26?
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2323. Dakster
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, I hope you're going to Publix to get food for the Fins and Jets game tonight rather than 'Nicole'.

But seriously, you don't have to go to Publix for 'Nicole' just yet.


So true.. How come there isn't an after wednesday option in the poll? It is THAT forgone that one WILL form by Wednesday at the latest?

I actually plan on doing my regular shopping during the game to avoid the crowds. Not big NFL football fan anymore. Although, this COULD be the year for the Dolphins - just like last year and the year before, and the year before that...

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2322. will40


12Z GFS has first system as TS up east coast and then starts developement of another system south of Cuba at 126 hrs
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4238
Quoting robj144:
So none of the south FLA news sites have anything about the possibility of a hurricane hitting us. If it forms on Tuesday, a day warning would not be good. What do you guys think the chances are of this coming to fruition? Should I start to warn people now, so we can beat everyone to the stores?


My suggestion would be to err on the side of caution and tell folks to be ready for something to head this way. Play it safe and be ready!
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Remnants of ex- Julia at 54w 28N, gaining some convetion, interesting but unlikely it will develop, since shear is increasing in the area.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'd go with TD at 11.
wow you got it spinning up fast. pineapple express type moisture feed i believe
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Quoting TerraNova:
Wow NAM, just wow.



Afternoon All!

The best part of that model run is the steering flow is oriented almost N-S at 84 hours...meaning that system would drag all the way up the East Coast. Granted it's not too strong and will have some southerly shear but could be a big rain/some wind producer for much of the seaboard...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sorta I guess. Updrafts within the thunderstorm is what essentially tilts rotation within a cell from horizontal to vertical. Thus a tornado develops within this vertical rotational column.

I really don't know much about the development of tornadoes though.


Thank you, MiamiHurricanes09
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Quoting robj144:
So none of the south FLA news sites have anything about the possibility of a hurricane hitting us. If it forms on Tuesday, a day warning would not be good. What do you guys think the chances are of this coming to fruition? Should I start to warn people now, so we can beat everyone to the stores?


Listen to the NHC and your local NWS...there is no hurricane currently out there...if you need to restock your supplies do it but there is no need to rush to the stores if you have been already prepared.
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Quoting IKE:


Raining at my house now. 75.6 outside.

Yes...I'm glad.


I've been surrounded. Had a trace at best.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.