Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Seflhurricane:
so i see Recon will be going in there SOON ??? based on the flight schedule
Yeah, they'll be investigating tomorrow afternoon from 2p.m EDT to 7p.m EDT.
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Quoting surfmom:


LOL - now that you've nailed, can you put a halter on it and lead it to a safe place???? : )
let me work my magic, aside from that seems to me we may have a repeat of Hurricane Irene in 1999 in South Florida !!!
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Florida shouldn't have to worry about anything greater than a moderate/strong Category 1 hurricane.

Shear forecast shows unfavorable conditions for further development in the Western Caribbean and GOMEX
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Quoting kshipre1:
i wonder how much dry air and wind shear will affect any system coming into the eastern SE GOM

both will
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2409. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2408. beell
Who knows? The models may be trying to develop vorticity lobes (on the E side-where PVA is greatest) associated with the monsoonal depression as this whole gyre tries to lift N into the ridge weakness near the E coast. For now, the models are tracking the gyre. Not storms.

Gonna be a long week. Perhaps one will work to the surface. Perhaps not. Odds are that one of these vorts will spin down but maybe not all of them.
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thanks FLWeatherFreak91...what do u think about the wind we could get.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Fixed

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261630 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 26 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117 CORRECTION
so i see Recon will be going in there SOON ??? based on the flight schedule
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2404. surfmom
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i have had my eyes glued to the screen looking and looking and i nailed it !!!!!!!!!

LOL - now that you've nailed it, can you put a halter on it and lead it to a safe place???? : ) (w/out giving it a name) bawahahaaaa
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Mid-Level Low...



I believe we go from 10% to 20/30% on the next TWO
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Fixed

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261630 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 26 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117 CORRECTION
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i wonder how much dry air and wind shear will affect any system coming into the eastern SE GOM
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, looks to be in the mid-levels. The circulation is also moving towards the north.

so we should expect 30-40% on the next TWO
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2399. surfmom
Quoting TcuFrogs:
Based on post, maps, models and heck everything else, it looks like the Texas Coast is safe (for now) on anything developing and moving this way. Oh yea, I am looking forward to the lows in the 50's this week.

Better me then my kid......
prepared? - have been
even the surfboard is waxed

On the same page Abaco "I just tuned up the Generator and made sure the shutters are in order.
All I need is about 2 hours to put up the shutters and I am done.
Naples here."


and you are ready to play should the opportunity present itself
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ok wheres my TXcaster
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Yeah, looks to be in the mid-levels. The circulation is also moving towards the north.

Ramsdis Loop
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
yellow circle may go to orange at the next TWO lets see probably 40 %

I agree I think it may go up as well maybe 20 or 30%.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Can't leave that there, because I will get banned.
too funny there is one even better RED ALERT RED ALERT
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yellow circle may go to orange at the next TWO lets see probably 40 %
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
it is a midlevel low that has formed but it is developing rather quickly so we will likely have a TD by tomorrow afternoon



ouch thats not good
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Quoting scottsvb:

Thank you for the analysis.
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.
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Quoting FirstCoastMan:
What could jacksonville,florida get from nicole?
Depends on the angle the storm hits Florida, how strong it is, and how fast it's moving.

Models are showing the storm moving rather quickly over Florida, if it happens to pass over Jax, it still could have some strength to it.

Definitely expect higher rain chances throughout this week though. The first cold front of the season reaches jax with heavy weather late tonight.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I haven't looked at the loop, but by telling from the cloud pattern, that looks to be in the mid-levels.
it is a midlevel low that has formed but it is developing rather quickly so we will likely have a TD by tomorrow afternoon
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loooks like we could see 96L today
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
low Pressure! Low Pressure! SeFlHurricane got it!

I haven't looked at the loop, but by telling from the cloud pattern, that looks to be in the mid-levels.
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Ex-Julia looking good

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
low Pressure! Low Pressure! SeFlHurricane got it!

i have had my eyes glued to the screen looking and looking and i nailed it !!!!!!!!!
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Low pressure HAS FORMED GUYS NEAR 18.0 N and 85.0W
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Quoting scottsvb:

Best guess on the 12zGFS is fine up to 72-78hrs or close to mid-day Weds. After that, things go down hill quickly. It's a moderate Tropical storm with pressure around 994-999mb just about
100 miles W or WSW of Key west heading NNE. Now after this going into Weds night.. Non-tropical low pressure on the SE side of the trough over NE Florida gets developed and gets energy from the Tropical Storm approaching SW florida. The low along the trough deepens and heads quickly N along the bottom of the trough and takes the energy away from the tropical storm leaving behind a weak LLV pressure in and around SE GOM or SW Florida by Thursday. The days 4-5 show again (like with Matthew), broad low pressure still hanging back in the NW carribean. Another LLC might form by day 5. After that, its too far to look out and even days 3.5-5 are not set yet. For all we know, this will move west of Key west on Weds and make landfall as a strong TS or weak hurricane and leave nothing behind or many things can still happen. I been saying we have to wait for 0Z runs tonight into Monday to have a idea on what might happen. Again I lean between the GFS and EMCWF thru 72hrs, after that, we don't know yet.

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low Pressure! Low Pressure! SeFlHurricane got it!

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for those on here that live in South Florida get ready for a long roller coaster ride if the models are correct we are going to get pounded real hard
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you guys realize that putting any faith in any of the poorly preforming models is just dartboard weather casting... please the models have only been good at best at short runs up to maybe 36 hours... sure s.fla looks set up to get maybe tropical downpours later this week but models please talk to me in 24 hours about the models.IMHO
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low pressure appears to have formed or forming rather quickly near 18.0N and 85.0W
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
180 hours:



So Miami, one after the other after the other will come march into South Florida and cause nothing but chaos going into next week.
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What could jacksonville,florida get from nicole?
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240 hours. This would be the third system that goes right over where I live.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
180 hours:



Nicole = Warmup
Otto = Breather
Paula = Knock Out

I REALLY hope the GFS is having a bad run!
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Based on post, maps, models and heck everything else, it looks like the Texas Coast is safe (for now) on anything developing and moving this way. Oh yea, I am looking forward to the lows in the 50's this week.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Latest Levi32 update in here:

Link


Thats from yesterday
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Bleh.


Bleh?

lol
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Quoting will40:


Yes my bad i see the mistake now ty
It happens. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8263
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Three landfalling systems on SF on the 12z GFS it looks like.

Florida is going to get it come October.
Bleh.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
180 hours:



Well, that's a big one. Looks like it going to be rather wet around here the next 2 weeks.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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