Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sammywammybamy:



Now the Question is: Is The GFS on Steriods? Or Could it really Happen


Ooo, that's ugly, hopefully that will not be the case.

Speaking of cases, here you go sammy:

Link

Nice day today in Pensacola, after the rain went away this morning. Looked like it was going to be ugly all day.
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Quoting swlaaggie:


Concentrated area of 30 knot shear in the 10 percent area per CIMSS site?
I don't understand?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21178
Quoting help4u:
I THINK WE HAVE A SITUATION ON OUR HANDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


system hasn't even formed and people inferred this ad naseum about Matthew

wait and see
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2461. GS121
just need all this mess to be done in exactly 14 days. do not want to battle disney with rain all freaking week
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12z CMC has an intense hurricane making landfall along southeastern Florida in 84 hours (4 days).

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21178
2459. IKE
NOGAPS through 180 hours...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2456. help4u
I THINK WE HAVE A SITUATION ON OUR HANDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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12z CMC
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not really. Surface convergence (what enhances thunderstorm activity) is still poor.



Concentrated area of 30 knot shear in the 10 percent area per CIMSS site?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I guess the system wants to form quickly.
Not really. Surface convergence (what enhances thunderstorm activity) is still poor.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21178
2448. leo305
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What would it mean if you were rooting for the storm?

(Not saying I am!)


that conditions are becoming more favorbale for development..

look at the word, diverge
and the word converge.. a low pressure area develops through convergence, since they converge moisture into one area.. diverge means there is no low pressure since the moisture is spreading away from an area..

so this means it's getting more favorable
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Bad. Surface divergence induces sinking air and subsidence (high pressure) which is not favorable for cyclogenesis. However, if there is no surface divergence, then cyclogenesis is more likely to occur.

Currently, upper divergence and surface convergence are improving.


I guess the system wants to form quickly.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Is it Possible to Have 3 Systems affecting a Location in a Matter of days?


Yes, but if it does, I think that will be the only time we will ever see that when we are alive.
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Quoting weatherman12345:

IS this good or bad
Bad. Surface divergence induces sinking air and subsidence (high pressure) which is not favorable for cyclogenesis. However, if there is no surface divergence, then cyclogenesis is more likely to occur.

Currently, upper divergence and surface convergence are improving.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21178
Quoting Neapolitan:


Depends if you're rooting for the storm to develop, or against it. :-)


What would it mean if you were rooting for the storm?

(Not saying I am!)
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2441. MahFL
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
What could jacksonville,florida get from nicole?


An STD, lol.
I am near Jax too.
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Quoting weatherman12345:

IS this good or bad


Depends if you're rooting for the storm to develop, or against it. :-)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Surface divergence continues to diminish.



Whats that mean?
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Dare I say Bye Lisa?

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Surface divergence continues to diminish.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21178
Visible loop of AOI, speed up using "Faster"
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11131
we will have 96L today


hurricane season will not be evere in tell 99L has it turn
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Quoting seflagamma:


Irene was never forcasted to be a hurricane! It did that right before landfall and all the flooding it brought... we drove home from work that afternoon here in Broward in Cat 1 winds.
My neighborhood had flood waters for 2-3 days only big trucks could get in and out that first day.. we paddled boats down our street!
And the kids had the little pool rafts and pool boats.. I know we are not suppose to play in flood water...

Hi Surf, glad to se you around today.
I have got to get off te blogs now and start painting again.

Sefl, where are you from over here, Dade or Broward or Palm Beach counties?
correct but i am referring to that irene would be a good example of the system that may affect us due to the unfavorable environment that will be over us, what worries me is the next system behind this one that the models form into a monster of a hurricane
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
let me work my magic, aside from that seems to me we may have a repeat of Hurricane Irene in 1999 in South Florida !!!


Irene was never forcasted to be a hurricane! It did that right before landfall and all the flooding it brought... we drove home from work that afternoon here in Broward in Cat 1 winds.
My neighborhood had flood waters for 2-3 days only big trucks could get in and out that first day.. we paddled boats down our street!
And the kids had the little pool rafts and pool boats.. I know we are not suppose to play in flood water...

Hi Surf, glad to se you around today.
I have got to get off te blogs now and start painting again.

Sefl, where are you from over here, Dade or Broward or Palm Beach counties?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261630 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 26 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 27/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 28/0245Z
D. 19.0N 85.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION FOR 29/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF
AT 28/1730Z.
3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 27/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

i See there are sending the whole batallion
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
If the NHC is buying any of this early development some models are portraying, the would most likely go to code orange at 2:00 or 8:00 p.m.
we have one hour to find out !!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 261630 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 26 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 28/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 27/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
C. 28/0245Z
D. 19.0N 85.0W
E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION FOR 29/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF
AT 28/1730Z.
3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 27/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
If the NHC is buying any of this early development some models are portraying, the would most likely go to code orange at 2:00 or 8:00 p.m.
Should the current organizational trend continue, we'll likely see 20% at 2p.m EDT followed by 30% at 8p.m EDT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21178
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Ummmmmm......what in the world is that feature around 28 North, 54 West? We got something sneaking in from stage right while everybody is looking south? NHC says it's a low. Looks to be gaining convection. And, as opposed to what's down south...it's got a nice spin.
those are the remnants of former hurricane julia still around but no threat
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2423. will40
Quoting Seflhurricane:
so i see Recon will be going in there SOON ??? based on the flight schedule


not scheduled until tomorrow

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4154
If the NHC is buying any of this early development some models are portraying, they would most likely go to code orange at 2:00 or 8:00 p.m.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11119
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, they'll be investigating tomorrow afternoon from 2p.m EDT to 7p.m EDT.
Miami i continue to look at this midlevel circulation and i see it deepening more and more hopefully it does not crank up fast , the water temperatures are boiling right under
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2420. robj144
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Not true...... Channel 10 has been mentioning a possible tropical system heading to Florida this coming week and we should pay attention.


Ok...but I was talking about the websites. Never get a chance to watch the news, so I was skimming the local websites to see if they mentioned anything, and I couldn't find anything.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
NCAR WRF 120 hours



http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/wrf/hur12/2010092600/clc.hr120.png

That looks like a big one. I can't find a direct link to this product, however. At least not the forecast page.
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Ummmmmm......what in the world is that feature around 28 North, 54 West? We got something sneaking in from stage right while everybody is looking south? NHC says it's a low. Looks to be gaining convection. And, as opposed to what's down south...it's got a nice spin.
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Quoting weatherman12345:
recon will decide later today

I'm confused, Recon tomorrow right?
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
so i see Recon will be going in there SOON ??? based on the flight schedule
Yeah, they'll be investigating tomorrow afternoon from 2p.m EDT to 7p.m EDT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21178

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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