Matthew drenching Central America and Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2010

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Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken yesterday, showing Tropical Storm Matthew approaching landfall.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period beginning at 2am EDT today (Saturday, September 25) as predicted by this morning's 2am EDT (6Z) run of the GFDL. Very heavy rains in excess of eight inches (yellow colors) are predicted for portions of Central America along Matthew's track. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa pulled a bit of a surprise last night, intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds in the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa's longitude of 27.9W at the time made it the 10th strongest hurricane so far east in the Atlantic. Record keeping began in 1851, but it is likely that many hurricanes stronger than Lisa were missed prior to the advent of reliable satellite coverage in 1974. Lisa is even farther east than Category 4 Hurricane Julia, which earlier this month set the record for strongest hurricane ever recorded so far east. Lisa's glory will be short-lived, though, as strong upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase tonight, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over the storm. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Forecast for the rest of the tropics
Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week, and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as to what might happen. We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds over the next few days.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm.

Jeff Masters

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1964. Grothar
Hey stormwatcherCI, think someone hasn't had their caffeine yet at NOAA. LOL
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1963. Grothar
Guess someone at the NHC must have had a good Saturday night. Maps don't match the discussion.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MATTHEW...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO.

1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
LITTLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
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You can tell from this, something's defiantly brewing in the Caribbean. Like a great big soup.
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1960. IKE
Check out the shear increasing along the northern GOM from the trough being carved out...

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Quoting Grothar:


Found it Teddy, looks odd.



NHC jumped the gun a little.
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1958. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Trying to paste the image but it won't work for some reason. BTW, it is a big red circle covering almost the entire western Caribbean.


Found it Teddy, looks odd.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here it comes.. that area south of Haiti yesterday has moved westward into the western Caribbean with some left over energy of Matthew, causing a lot of thunderstorms over the western Caribbean.


I think that went north via the trough and the AOI in the WCarb is from Matt & EPac.
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can someone post the latest vorticity map
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
water vapor



Link

mean wind layer 500 - 850



Link
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1954. afj3
Quoting RotorYacht:
I would say around 8am tomorrow. Just  a guess though.


Don't those remnant storms take longer to form? Similar to remnants from Cold Fronts in the Atlantic???
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The blob off the Northeast coast of Honduras looks like it can be something all by itself.

Link

When we were looking at where the mysterious florida storm would come from, Cotillion suggested the EPac. Looks like this did come up through Honduras from there.
Kman's sunday golf game maybe better with an early tee time.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here it comes.. that area south of Haiti yesterday has moved westward into the western Caribbean with some left over energy of Matthew, causing a lot of thunderstorms over the western Caribbean.



and a quite different steering situation than Matthew faced ... if it spins up ... CIMSS 700 to 850 mb:

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1951. afj3
Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks like things are getting cranked up mets here in miami are all saying there is a possibility of a strong tropical system affecting us late next week into the weekend

Models are suggesting that too. GFS is back pounding Florida again...
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guys the NHC screwed up on the locations of the TWO STOP ASKING THE SAME QUESTION !!!
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
looks like things are getting cranked up mets here in miami are all saying there is a possibility of a strong tropical system affecting us late next week into the weekend
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3022
Quoting A4Guy:
are the models still in good agreement on development in the W Carib during the week?

Also - which ones performed best with Matt? Are they the same ones that have been most accurate with other storms this year?


Depends on the forecast hour which model has performed the best on Matthew. This site has the CMC in the lead @96 hours.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Isn't it the same area shown in the East Pacific outlook and Atlantic outlook? Why does the Atlantic show it as 10% and the East Pacific as 60%?


Never mind, just realised the East Pacific blob is in the wrong place too.
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I would say around 8am tomorrow. Just  a guess though.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
When do you guys think invest 96L be up for the Caribbean area?

I say by this afternoon.

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Isn't it the same area shown in the East Pacific outlook and Atlantic outlook? Why does the Atlantic show it as 10% and the East Pacific as 60%?
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Quoting A4Guy:
are the models still in good agreement on development in the W Carib during the week?

Also - which ones performed best with Matt? Are they the same ones that have been most accurate with other storms this year?


1) Yes, very good agreement
2) GFS caught Matthew first, so I'd say the GFS. And when it comes to monsoonal development, the ECMWF is usually more accurate to me.
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1943. breald
Quoting Neapolitan:


It does appear that way. Last evening MH09 was speculating that the Gulf of Honduras would be the most likely spot we might see something begin to spin up in the next day or so, and looking at the current 850mb vorticity charts, that looks about right.

Funny, though: when you're on the main NHC page, click on the Eastern Pacific tab, and you'll see the entire western Caribbean area in red. Someone needs their coffee before setting down to do chart detail... :-)


Now that is funny...LOL
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When do you guys think invest 96L be up for the Caribbean area?

I say by this afternoon.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Morning. I thought it would come from closer to Matthew SurfMom. Sure looks like there's something brewing in the WCarb from this loop.

Link
17N from 83W-85W.

Yes something, and I'm a bit concerned because whatever forms is coming upto s fla. Models have been consistent (with a few exceptions) at bringing something here for days now. I really hope it's just a lot of rain and nothing else.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Morning. I thought it would come from closer to Matthew SurfMom. Sure looks like there's something brewing in the WCarb from this loop.

Link
17N from 83W-88W.


It does appear that way. Last evening MH09 was speculating that the Gulf of Honduras would be the most likely spot we might see something begin to spin up in the next day or so, and looking at the current 850mb vorticity charts, that looks about right.

Funny, though: when you're on the main NHC page, click on the Eastern Pacific tab, and you'll see the entire western Caribbean area in red. Someone needs their coffee before setting down to do chart detail... :-)
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1939. msphar
Karl in the Leewards ? I'm stuck on that thought. Somebuddy like to s'plain that one ?
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Trying to paste the image but it won't work for some reason. BTW, it is a big red circle covering almost the entire western Caribbean.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The Caribbean sea has changed location!


Checked the E. Pacific and finally "found" the Caribbean circle. Morning everyone.
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Link
Changes in latitude, changes in attitude
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1935. A4Guy
are the models still in good agreement on development in the W Carib during the week?

Also - which ones performed best with Matt? Are they the same ones that have been most accurate with other storms this year?
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Wind shift at bouy 42057, 16.8N 81.5W


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
1932. IKE
Quoting barotropic:


Oh Yes "the long awaited and heavily "pushed" pattern change...discussed for one and a half months every time a system formed or wave moved off of Africa. "Pushed" everytime someone agreed with a model which showed, repeatedly, recurving storms.

Oh well.


Just goes to show, you can't trust models, long-range.
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1931. WxLogic
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The Caribbean sea has changed location!


I'm pretty sure they'll highlight the NW Carib once they see some additional or persistent convective activity by 5PM or may be by the next TWO.
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I think the blob by Haiti went poof.
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1929. BrandiQ
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Morning. I thought it would come from closer to Matthew SurfMom. Sure looks like there's something brewing in the WCarb from this loop.

Link
17N from 83W-85W.
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1927. surfmom
My head is spinning - LOL
Check the East Pacific??!!?? -- that's a FIRST FOR ME
(though I am a newbie)
Dog is starting the Dance
thanks for the lovely morning ALL
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Yeah, Thanks could be the theme song for this blog.If we weren't all crazy we would go insane.
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Quoting IKE:


That's a big change.


Northwest Caribbean, north central Atlantic. The two locations are only 3,000 miles apart, so what's the big deal? :-)
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Quoting IKE:


That's a big change.


Darn Matthew sure pumped that ridge!

(kidding)
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1923. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The Caribbean sea has changed location!


That's a big change.
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Umm...so they have the yellow AOI a bit to the east of Julia's remains in the north central Atlantic, and nothing over the Caribbean even though that's where the TWO says it is.

Hmmm...
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The Caribbean sea has changed location!
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Quoting IKE:


Too many other factors involved.

"Pattern change"...has led to a lot of problems on this blog.


Oh Yes "the long awaited and heavily "pushed" pattern change...discussed for one and a half months every time a system formed or wave moved off of Africa. "Pushed" everytime someone agreed with a model which showed, repeatedly, recurving storms.

Oh well.
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DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
LITTLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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1918. surfmom
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here it comes.. that area south of Haiti yesterday has moved westward into the western Caribbean with some left over energy of Matthew, causing a lot of thunderstorms over the western Caribbean.



You know, I am almost positive that is EXACTLY where Chicklet was looking
yesterday -
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1917. IKE
Quoting gordydunnot:
Ike, Jimmy Buffet had a song for that pattern. Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes nothing remains quite the same.


LOL...true.
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1916. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MATTHEW...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
LITTLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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Ike, Jimmy Buffet had a song for that pattern. Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes nothing remains quite the same.
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1914. surfmom
Quoting IKE:


Hope you get to ride some waves surfmom.

(((IKE))) thanks - I'm on stand-by presently, getting ready to go over to the East Coast - I just know that as soon as I book something.... nature will go brew something in my backyard

GS121
- FL is big - depends where you going.... FYI there be OIL & dispersants thanks to BP (even if you can't see it) up in the Northern Panhandle (Orange beach to Panama)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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