Florida to get socked; Stan looking strong

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:33 PM GMT on October 03, 2005

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Tropical disturbance approaching Florida
An tropical disturbance approaching the central Bahama Islands is poised to sock Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday with heavy rains and high winds. While the shear is a high 10 - 20 knots over the system today, the shear is expected to decrease to 5 - 10 knots tomorrow, accompanied by the formation of an upper-level anticyclone on top. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by the time it reaches Florida, and a reconnaissance flight is scheduled for Tuesday at 11 am. The disturbance currently has no surface circulation center; the spinning clouds seen on satellite images at 25N 70W are from an upper-level low that the disturbance is now separating from. Beaches along central Florida are already suffering erosion from the large pounding waves emanating from this disturbance.

The forecast track of this disturbance is complicated by the expected interaction with a cold front forecast to move over the East Coast by the end of the week, and an upper-level low pressure system expected to form in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The GFS model shows the disturbance splitting into two storms, one that tracks across Southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and the other which moves northward along the coast, brushing the Carolinas and New England. Neither storm has a very good chance to develop into a hurricane. Anything moving into the Gulf will encounter the upper-level low and its shearing winds. An East Coast storm would have low shear and a favorable upper-level winds for development, but not much time over warm water. Regardless, Florida is in for a very wet week with potential serious flooding problems, both from the rains of the tropical disturbance, and from the upper-level low, which is likely to entrain copious tropical moisture over the state.


Figure 1. BAMM model forecast track of Bahamas suspect area. The intensity forecast numbers from the SHIPS model are far too high; this system will be lucky to make it to tropical storm strength (40 mph winds). The GFS and NOGAPS models are tracking the upper-level low northeast of the Bahamas instead of the surface tropical wave.

Tropical Storm Stan
There have been three center penetrations of Stan this afternoon by the Hurricane Hunters, most recently at 4:50 pm EDT. The central pressure fell 6 mb in the three hours between passes, and the highest winds measured were in the 55 - 60 mph range. Satellite imagery continues to show an improving outflow pattern, larger area of deep convection near the center, and more low-level spiral banding. The chances for continued intensification are high, as Stan is over 30C waters and is positioned under a large anticyclone that will provide good outflow and wind shear values below 5 knots. Stan will probably be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast on Wednesday, and a Category 2 hurricane is not out of the question.

The 12Z ( 8am EDT) model runs continue to forecast a landfall in Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz on Wednesday. After briefly stalling this afternoon while re-organizing, Stan is moving westward again at about 6 mph under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge is forecast to weaken as a weak trough of low pressure swings across the U.S. and drops a cold front and upper-level low pressure system across the northern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. In response to this weakening, Stan is expected to slow down as he approaches the coast Tuesday, but it is looking less and less likely that Stan will stall in the Gulf and wander erratically.

Mid-Atlantic disturbance
A low pressure system accompanied by a concentrated area of thunderstorms is halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, at about 14N 36W. This system is fighting significant wind shear, and will probably not develop into a tropical depression. It is expected to move northward the next five days over open waters and not threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Stan at PaaMul (cleo85)
PaaMul, Yucatan Peninsula, 30 miles north of Tulum
Stan at PaaMul

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521. billsfaninsofla
1:58 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
collinsfarm.... thanks for the link... what do you think?
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5800
520. palmbeacher
1:43 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Dr. Masters just put in new entry
519. gbreezegirl
1:43 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Any ant reports? Our pressure here is 30.07 but falling. Winds are 15 with gusts to 22. Very breezy.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
518. palmbeacher
1:40 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
ok, I wasn't certain.
517. weatherdude65
1:39 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
palmbeacher....further up on the east coast, near Cocoa Beach
516. palmbeacher
1:34 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Weatherdude, I have probably asked you this before, but where are you. Notice the difference in pressure.
515. Hopnskip2gulf
1:33 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Gonna really spoil UF Homecoming this weekend though! Go figure!
514. palmbeacher
1:33 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Boynton Beach, FL
Heat Index: 85 F
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 74 F
Wind: 9 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 19.0 mph
Pressure: 29.85 in
513. napleswx
1:33 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
I know I morph into two different systems when I have one of those.
512. Hopnskip2gulf
1:33 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Rain event would be nice though!
511. palmbeacher
1:31 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
"Bahama Breeze" Isn't that a drink?
510. palmbeacher
1:31 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Hopefully it won't turn into anything!
509. collinsfarm
1:30 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
84 hour GFS forecast shows the "bahama breeze" morphing into at least two different systems. very confusing.Link
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1354
508. Hopnskip2gulf
1:28 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
I am anxious to see what Dr. Masters's take is on these new model runs. I am just NE of Cedar Key. I know that he says the SHIPS model intensity is too high so that is a blessing but the GFS and Bamm scare me.
507. VeroBeachNative
1:28 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Palmbeacher,

It is really nasty weather here in Vero too! On and off rain, but pretty consistent wind. They aren't predicting this disturbance to strengthen much...but who knows??
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
506. weatherdude65
1:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
morning all....well, it has been very windy and rainy so far this morning. Felt sorry for the kids at the bus stop trying to keep their umbrellas from popping inside out. Pressure here is down to 29.92
505. thelmores
1:26 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
hey skyepony, that canadian model is hilarious, part of the blob breaks off, hits us (myrtle beach), the other part of the blob approaches the gulf coast, spins around, crosses florida, and hits us again! ROFL!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
504. palmbeacher
1:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Very windy here and is expected to become worse tonight and tomorrow. Does anyone think this thing over the Bahamas will develop before it comes to my front door?
503. palmbeacher
1:23 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Good morning all!
502. gbreezegirl
1:22 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Good morning all! Once again it does not look too good for us panhandle folks.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
501. collinsfarm
1:21 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
hey skyepony,
oh geez, i hope that model doesn't happen. we'll get clobbered twice in florida.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1354
500. collinsfarm
1:17 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
redfish,
I have family in Mexico Beach and at Indian Pass out on St. George Island. They have lost a lot of beach and dunes there as you say. Good luck with your move!

Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1354
499. ssredfish
1:10 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Collinsfarm

Yeah it has changed the fishing. In many ways the fishing will get better because so many people can't get out. So many dunes are gone - Gulf Shores, Cape San Blas, St George Island etc. The next storms don't have to be very big to do the damage.
Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
498. Skyepony (Mod)
1:08 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
check out the canadian model, it's been consistant except it amps up the storm on the last run Link
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39390
497. collinsfarm
1:07 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
good morning redfish,
you are right. the enormity of the past two hurricane seasons is hard to fathom. i used to live in daphne..fished out of orange beach a good bit back then.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1354
496. ssredfish
1:03 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
Hello Everyone

Just got done with a trip to St George Island Florida and was amazed by the fact that they had so much damage from Hurricane Dennis. I live near Gulf Shores Alabama and I spent much of the summer working in Port Arthur Texas. It made me think about the fact that there is damage for so many miles along the Gulf Coast. What the past (2) hurricane seasons have done is scary if we are to expect this in the future. By the way I'm relocating to Hawaii for the next year - there last big Hurricane was Iniki in 1992. Thanks to all the folks with the helpful postings.
Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
495. napleswx
1:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
The GFDL has an interesting take on the "blob", takes it across the state and brings it back to almost the same location it left. Models
494. thelmores
12:53 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
it looks like in the last hour, we have a "flare up" of "the blob"!

well, it would not be courteous if we did have something for the hurricanehunters to investigate! ;)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
493. hurricanechaser
12:24 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
it was nice meeting you all... I better get a little sleep..hope to talk to everyone again very soon.. have a good morning..:)
492. hurricanechaser
12:20 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
hello everyone..
490. thelmores
12:08 PM GMT on October 04, 2005
september waqs the dryest month in south carolina for 20yrs!!!

send some tropical moisture our way! ;)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
489. hurricanechaser
11:56 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
Saint,
I'm so sorry your home experienced that type of damage. A storm of Katrinas size and massive windfield no doubt brought extreme winds into your area. I filmed Katrina 60 miles inland At South Hattiesburg and recorded 115 mph gusts. When I was younger, I thought like the chaser you mentioned that sadly lost his life. Now that I've seen the misery that a major hurricane causes, I consider it a mission and a calculated risk to try to bring the live action consequences of what its like so people will not endure it themselves. I had intialy planned on filming it in Gulfport and got sick and couldn't get there soon enough. On the other hand, I didn't anticipate a 30 foot plus storm surge and it might well have been my last day here on earth. So I thank God I have learned a valuable lesson as a result.
488. hurricanechaser
11:50 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
Saint,
My thoughts and prayers are with each of you down on the coast and wil continue to be. I wouldn't have mentioned it had you not inquired because I believe any good thing I do should be for God's glory not my own. I went with a 10 member team from my church (Scotts Hill Baptist) for a week long relief mission in the hardest hit areas. I couldn't believe wjhat I witnessed and have no desire to see it happen again. One death is too mant much less seeing corpses which lay in the open knowing it was someones loved one. It broke my heart.. In short, I should be returning in about three weeks as our church is planning another trip at the end of October.. I'm sorry if I gave the incorrect impression that my fascination in anyway implied I desire to see people adversly affected.
487. SAINTHURRIFAN
11:45 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
bless you chaser and i agree about those on beach but i live 8 miles inland and hurricane proofed my house but still lost 1/2 of it i guess as i hit 41 i just dont get as excited anymore. the only thing that concerns me about chasers is the young folks see them and go out and get in harms way, one so called chaser was found floating by a casino a week after katrina family said he left ohio to experience katrina.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
486. hurricanechaser
11:42 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
Saint,
We share the same sentiments. I didn't leave immediately because I wanted to help and did so volunteering at the local EOC in forrest county for two days.. so I saw it first hand...that I didn't video out of respect for the hardship. Thatrs why I always donate at least 10% of the orginal purchase price of my documentaries to help those in the affected areas.
485. hurricanechaser
11:39 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
Saint... I totally understand your sentiments.. And please visit my hurricane Katrina link on my website to see how that experience had a dramatic impact on me.. I stayed there for three days, doing all I could to assist before I had to get back home to my wife and family. I have no desire to see a major hurricane cause death and destruction. In reality, we have built in areas that have historically been under water from previous devastating hurricanes and yet people rebuild i the same locations ensuring a repeat of history. I don't hope for mjor hurriocane landfalls but I cover them to show the devastation that one can inflict if and when they hit a specific location. THats the purpose of my website at hurricaneadventures.com.
484. hurricanechaser
11:33 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
I was just checking out the latest infrared loop for the disturbance. I am noticing that its developing a better outflow channel to its north and in response, the convection has increased dramatically on its north and east sides of the apparent circulation center which appears to becoming better defined as well. If this system can fight off the strong shear and continue to retain or even increase that convection, there a reasonable chance the hurricane hunters migt find a closed circulation when they investigate later today. I wouldn't be surprised to see it become a minimal tropical depression if it continues this trend.
483. SAINTHURRIFAN
11:32 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
hey chaser dont want to dampen your parade here on ms coast deaLT WITH CAMILLE 5 FREDDY 4 ELENA 3 JUAN 1 GEORGE 2 AND NOW KATRINA. fascinated by the storms tracked them and folowed thm for years but just curious after you chase one that unfortunately hits do you leave back to your ac or do you stay and help with the clean up and assist the homeless and bury the dead, i am fascinated with them but dont want them to hit anywhere or witness them i know firsthand what they can do. no hostilities meant but people need the help after the storm been glad to had you stay AFTER katrina god bless.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
482. IKE
11:25 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
I live on a lake...with a house on stilts...a cat 1 and Im gone. The east wind howls across this lake.....Lake Holley. A strong TS and this house shakes...it's unnerving.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
481. hurricanechaser
11:21 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
Ike.. based on your major hurricane experiences..how strong does a storm have to be to get you to evacuate your home>?
480. hurricanechaser
11:19 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
thanks Lefty,
I will try to get back on late myself. I am not sure when. I am off today and will be watching my little girl and when she wakes up, so will I..lol.. When my wife gts home, Im gonna need a long nap:) Either way, I look forward to keeping in touch.
479. IKE
11:18 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
Eloise made me a believer. True...the winds were strong...especially at Panama City Beach and Walton county, which is the county I live in.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
478. hurricanechaser
11:16 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
Is that the storm/hurricane that got you hooked like the rest of us? I remember studying about hurricane Eloise which I believe had a landfallling pressure of 955 mb and 125 mph winds if Im not mistaken. Unfortunately, I was only 5 years old at the time. If not, I would've loved to experience that storm.
477. IKE
11:15 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
The c-man station at Settlement Point has e-ne winds at 40.3 mph. TS force!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
476. leftyy420
11:15 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
alright chaser, lol i been reading ur site, need togoto bed for real now.i will say we have so much in common u will laugh when we talk some later. ctach u later. i am usually on any time after 12pm and when not on check in every so often. i am a stay at home dad as well as go to scholl part time. to get that degree so i can be a true meterologist lol. but as of right now all i have taken class wise is general credit, english math and electives likle german lol. most ofmy knowledge is thru reading books and what not. sure there is plenty u can teach me. hope to chat real soonm. peace for now
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
475. IKE
11:11 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
Eloise. Trees down EVERYWHERE. Opal and Ivan left me w/o power for a couple of days. That's no fun. Thank God never a Katrina here...yet!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
474. hurricanechaser
11:10 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
it was a pleasure meeting you Lefty.. I know what you mean..I need to get some sleep myself..thanks for the chat..Have a goodnight/morning..lol
473. hurricanechaser
11:08 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
Thanks so much Lefty,
I've got alot of work to do on it.. the clip doesn't do it justice, winds wre just reaching hurricane force when the roof came off. It would be two hours later when the northeast eyewall brought 115 mph gusts and will try to get those clips on there soon. Isabel had a category three pressure at landfall (957mb) and maximum sustained winds of 105 mph which made her a borderline cat. 2/3 hurricane.. basically a major hurricane which got its name retired.. Thats awesome you were able to experience it all first hand. I remember when Hurricane Fran brought its northeast eyewall over my area in 1996, I wish I had a camcorder of that event. On the other hand, I have the memories that I will never forget.
472. leftyy420
11:02 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
chaser it was great meeting u man. i need to go to bed now lol. its sol;ate or early depending on how u look at it lol. i am on here alot and hit me up when ur on so we can talk more.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
471. leftyy420
10:59 AM GMT on October 04, 2005
naw chaser, i was just about being there as it was my first actual chase i didn;t even care to bring a camera. lol. it was some night and even in my home in noirthern va my wife said u could hear the wind howl. the eye passed over my home in fredericksburg,va and trees were down all over the place when i was able to get home. i loved it and was hooked lol. in va beach i saw reporters getting blown down and windows in some of the hotels blowing out. very intense storm i will never forget. this time for ophelia i tried to take pictures but didn;t take as much as i would have liked. i love ur sight and the 1 minute katrina vide was awsome
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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