Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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2861. JBirdFireMedic
3:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
2860. swlavp
2:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
...
Member Since: June 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
2859. Greenizz
2:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
We never let the guard down as storms are so unpredictable and after surviving Hugo I stay alert, but it seems whenever the models show Tampa Bay at the start they always shift away from us.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
2858. CitikatzSouthFL
2:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting tacoman:
my thinking right now and its a long ways off tampa is well overdue for a major hurricane and i think matthew has its eye on tampa...i cant see it going anywhere else once it gets in the gom if the cut off low is over the central gom...lets hope this happens and we will be out of the woods...

Taco, how about we don't wishcast anything towards Florida. NO, we are NOT better equipted to handle a storm. We do NOT want a storm. Actually, I just wish it would disappear and not hit any land area. That being said, Tampa does not need a storm...neither does the Gulf Coast or Texas. Unfortunately, it looks like there may be a US landfall and we are all hoping it goes anywhere else but where we live. Florida does not need or want a storm, neither does Mexico, Texas, Louisianna, Mississippi, or any other populated land mass. IMO
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 439
2857. osuwxguynew
2:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Found some west winds...

And their hygrometer (measures dewpoint) must be busted??? No WAY there's mid 50 dewpoints at 500 feet in the deep Caribbean with a tropical wave and moisture pouring in also from the Epac...

14:18:30Z 13.300N 75.317W 990.5 mb
(~ 29.25 inHg) 155 meters
(~ 509 feet) 1008.4 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 259° at 7 knots
(From the W at ~ 8.0 mph) 23.0°C
(~ 73.4°F) 13.5°C
(~ 56.3°F)
8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 6 knots*
(~ 6.9 mph*) 3 mm/hr*
(~ 0.12 in/hr*) 5.2 knots* (~ 6.0 mph*)
75.0%*
Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
2856. osuwxguynew
2:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting Jax82:
ok ok ok



I know that's Wilma. But I completely forgot it did that. Such a neat loop. Thanks for posting!
Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
2855. HCW
2:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:

dude there not even close to being out of it


Can somebody please tell me the last October storm that hit Texas ?
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
2854. HCW
2:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting Greenizz:
Glad to see the model shifts...looks like the shield over Tampa Bay is still in place. Hopefully it will just die out over CA.


The Flood gates are open for Tampa to easily get hit from Mathew and another system right behind it . Don't let your guard down :)
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
2853. HCW
2:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
2852. Greenizz
2:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Glad to see the model shifts...looks like the shield over Tampa Bay is still in place. Hopefully it will just die out over CA.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
2851. Patrap
2:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
2850. HCW
2:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
2845. odubhthaigh
2:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:
For those of you just joining in...

Blog DOOMCON level is 4.

Repeat, blog is currently at DOOMCON 4.

*The DOOMCON system operates on an inverse 5-tier structure. DOOMCON authorities use the criteria set forth in WikiLeaks to assess DOOM conditions, and arbitrarily change the level without regard to said criteria.


You work for the DHS, don't you?
Member Since: May 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
2844. cmahan
2:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting Livyer:
A preliminary estimate by provincial government officials puts the damage caused by Igor above $100 million.

A story and images (including some aerial video of one road washout) are available at:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2010/09/23/igor-stranded-cleanup-923.html


Those are astounding pictures. It sounds like cleanup will take quite a while :(
Member Since: September 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
2843. HCW
2:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Watch for the renumber :) This will be a Mexican or FL storm I don't see how it could effect Texas or the central Gulf Coast
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
2842. Times2
2:05 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting WxLogic:
Current 12Z Steering:


Care to expand on this??
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
2841. TampaSpin
2:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2010



Steering map shows exactly what will happen. AS the deep trough approaches the West side of the High will and it will break down and allow a Northerly move. Just what i see.


Vorticity at 850 is stacked very well already


It has good Divergence aided somewhat by the ULL


Convergence has changed a lot as there was nothing there at 2am.

What does all this mean. We will have a TD by 5pm if not before and will likely track WNW toward the Yucatan. After that a more Northerly Movement is likely as the High on the West side breaks down. Anywhere from Texas to Florida needs to watch this.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
2839. NASA101
2:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting Times2:
Models shift right...models ship left. Remember they react to info that is fed into them. 95L is not rapidly developing. The model confusion is the timing of the trough and the track whether it is more of a southerly one. The speed at which storms moves related to troughs when they are a factor is important. This trough may ultimately not affect 95L. No one has really talked about the possibility of 95L reaching the BOC. I think that is just as possible as any other scenario.


agreed! Right now, this is as much as a South TX storm as FL or Mexico
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 276
2837. sarahjola
2:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
thanks for the feedback guys. so this could be good or bad, right? this ull catches up to 95l and disrupts it like the ull have done all season long or this could help it develop and move it in a certain direction. my question is what direction and why? if the ull stays above it would it pull it more north? if the ull gets ahead of 95l would it pull it more west? if the ull and 95l crash would it tear 95l apart? just wanting to know what i should be looking for. i am pretty sure that this ull will play a role with 95l. but who knows?
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291
2836. sporteguy03
2:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Nicaragua geography 101:
The eastern Caribbean lowlands of Nicaragua form the extensive (occupying more than 50 percent of national territory) and still sparsely settled lowland area known as Costa de Mosquitos. The Caribbean lowlands are sometimes considered synonymous with the former department of Zelaya, which is now divided into the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (Región Autonomista Atlántico Norte) and the South Atlantic Autonomous Region (Región Autonomista Atlántico Sur) and constitutes about 45 percent of Nicaragua's territory. These lowlands are a hot, humid area that includes coastal plains, the eastern spurs of the central highlands, and the lower portion of the Río San Juan basin.

Link
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5153
2835. Jax82
1:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
ok ok ok

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
2834. Stormchaser2007
1:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting mcluvincane:



Yeah, most said that about Alex. RIP Mathew lmao


The spot where 95L will cross is completely different from where Alex did.

Alex was also a strong TS at the time.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
2833. WxLogic
1:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Current 12Z Steering:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
2831. Times2
1:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Models shift right...models ship left. Remember they react to info that is fed into them. 95L is not rapidly developing. The model confusion is the timing of the trough and the track whether it is more of a southerly one. The speed at which storms move related to troughs when they are a factor is important. This trough may ultimately not affect 95L. No one has really talked about the possibility of 95L reaching the BOC. I think that is just as possible as any other scenario.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
2829. NASA101
1:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
me too. agreed


most likely!

Gonna get pounded for this but tis may be the season where we probably won't many US hits in an above average year!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 276
2828. Orcasystems
1:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
We need a new Blog from jeff :(





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2827. mcluvincane
1:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
me too. agreed



Yeah, most said that about Alex. RIP Mathew lmao
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
2826. hydrus
1:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Here ya go. Check out the NCEP...If this happens, Florida gets two big storms....Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20506
2825. IKE
1:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
The speed at which 95L is moving, it should be approaching Honduras in about a day.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2823. TampaSpin
1:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting weatherguy03:


Yes it is an ULL. It will be interesting to see if it interacts with Matthew. If it stays far enough away it could actually aid in creating a nice outflow channel to its NE.


Yep it could for sure help to Vent the system during the beginning. Gotta see how this plays out as NO ONE knows now Except the good man above and MOther Nature might not have told him!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
2821. FLWeatherFreak91
1:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting Dakster:


Cabo Gracis A Dios is close to the "corner"... I don;t think that is any easier to type out though.
lol. uhhh.... How about we just call it "The Corner." After all, do we have another corner that we'd confuse it with? I don't think so.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
2819. Thundercloud01221991
1:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Looks like if it is closed we will go straight for Matthew... already having 40 knt surface winds
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
2818. WxLogic
1:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Organization is improving a bit more since earlier today.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
2817. Cotillion
1:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Or Coco River Delta.

That's basically at the 'point' of the Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2816. islander101010
1:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
system is starting to look like a shrimp reaching out drawing in energy
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4333
2815. Stormchaser2007
1:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Im not sold on 95L surviving Nicaragua and moving into the GOM.

I feel its more likely that it will die over the Yucatan.

We'll see how the trough looks in a day or two.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
2814. KeysieLife
1:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting FLdewey:

Tenacious D is playing tonight? Sweet.

The legend of 95L was WAY HARDCORE!
Member Since: September 10, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 409
2813. WxLogic
1:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Winds getting a bit "gusty" as it approaches 95L.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
2812. Dakster
1:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
No, because that would describe the entire border... what is just the tip of it called? It's not really a peninsula, but more like a corner.


Cabo Gracis A Dios is close to the "corner"... I don;t think that is any easier to type out though.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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