Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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i dont think 95L will see much land in short term.
Pattern brings 95L mainly over water into the GOM.
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2460. scott39
Quoting surfmom:


Oh YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHH - that's why automatic generator & roll down shutter, reinforced garage door, trimmed trees, food & water stash etc...
You sound ready! Can I come stay with you during a storm.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
Quoting scott39:
Did you notice any Home Brew TCs coming from the Carribean this time of year, riding the Fl. East Coast and making a second landfall on the East Coast? Starting now and going back to 1920?


That would be a very specific track. It wouldn't happen often, as the tracks tend to move in a south to north motion past the Southern Gulf of Mexico rather than continuing westwards due to troughs eroding ridges and such.

Hurricane King was close in 1950, but only paralleled the coast until Central Florida when it went inland. Morever, making a second landfall on the US East Coast depends whether you classify the Floridian eastern shoreline as part of the US East Coast or not.

I can have a look, but nothing specific comes to mind except that aforementioned example.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2458. surfmom
Quoting weatherwart:


It's actually a lateral pass. Good morning, everyone. I was just outside looking at Jupiter and one of her moons. Spectacular!
Heading out myself -- was amazing last evening : )
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2457. surfmom
Quoting scott39:
Thanks for the research on the early years. Fl. got beat up often!


Oh YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHH - that's why automatic generator & roll down shutter, reinforced garage door, trimmed trees, food & water stash etc...
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2456. surfmom
Fiji's Tavarua - Biggest swell in ages, I'm
not found of big wave surfing -- but this MaNature Rocking & the harnessing her power - goes good w/Coffee till Coop's shows w/Food
Link
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2455. scott39
Quoting Cotillion:


#432, p. 5
Did you notice any Home Brew TCs coming from the Carribean this time of year, riding the Fl. East Coast and making a second landfall on the East Coast? Starting now and going back to 1920?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
Miami Area Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTEND
EASTWARD TO NEAR CUBA BY MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THAT
OUT OF THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO EMERGE SOUTH OF CUBA ON TUESDAY AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND COULD APPROACH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWARD MOTION THEREAFTER FORECAST. GIVEN THAT
THIS IS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND OBVIOUSLY TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT ANY UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THESE DEVELOPMENTS AS THERE MAY BE A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD UNDERGO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.


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Quoting 1992Andrew:
In the short run it's important to ascertain whether the storm will crash into honduras/nicaragua and meander over land. Strangely enough, the GFS is forecasting another entity forming south of cuba which is suppose to merge with future Matthew.


It's actually a lateral pass. Good morning, everyone. I was just outside looking at Jupiter and one of her moons. Spectacular!
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Quoting scott39:
Thanks for the research on the early years. Fl. got beat up often!


No worries.

Past this time, yes. Neapolitan has posted a graph more than once depicting the track bias towards Florida from at least late October onwards, but late September also tends to veer towards that solution. (When only discussing the United States, I hasten to add).

However, as I stated to you, a more comprehensive approach would be to show how hurricanes affect the Gulf Coast within this period including non-major strikes as well (you could exclude tropical storm hits if you wished). Major hurricanes do not hit the United States as major hurricanes that often at any point in any season (as stated yesterday, only 10 occasions within the last 15 years, of which 7 of those came within 2 years. Of course, I can appreciate the sentiment that that is ten times too many).
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Morning all... Looks like 14N 73W could be making a run at being the center... or somewhere thereabouts.
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I think TD 15 won't be declared until the after noon, however as for central america I remember a particular minimal hurricane that hit there last year she easily made it across, this storm will be slower but it also might be more powerful or travel less distance over land.
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2449. scott39
Quoting Cotillion:


#432, p. 5
Thanks for the research on the early years. Fl. got beat up often!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
Quoting Neapolitan:

FWIW, you look just like an ultra-low prerssure area just SE of Iceland... ;-)


Haha, touché!

(Though, the whole Brit accent thing is overrated; trust me, I know...)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2447. surfmom
Quoting Cotillion:


And the mornings love you back, I'm sure!

Mornin' Surfie - is it yet sunrise over there?
Still pitch black -- waiting for a bit more light b/4 my run -- want an early start -- it's time to give up the plow horse pace and start "running" again -- helps when the asphalt cools and isn't hot enough to melt your shoes first thing in the AM
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Quoting Cotillion:


Not sure about Matthew himself, but TD15 might surface later tonight. It was always key for him to move beyond 75W, which it'll do later on (I suppose gender cannot be given to invests?)

Btw Nea, you do have somewhat of a Jeremy Irons complexion about you...


I feel confident defining invests by gender...but I'll keep that to myself. ;-) Still, I don't think TD15 will wait until tonight to be birthed; I expect a renum within a few hours.

Jeremy Irons, huh? He's quite a bit older than I am, though he's much more suave, plus he has that whole British accent thing going. Well, I suppose I've been called worse. FWIW, you look just like an ultra-low prerssure area just SE of Iceland... ;-)
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Quoting scott39:
No I had to leave suddenly


#432, p. 5
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2444. ackee
95L looks like a TD now to me seem be heading little WNW to me very slow seed
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2443. scott39
Quoting Cotillion:


Did you see my extended post on the earlier period storms you were looking for (Gulf Coast homebrew majors from late Sept) yesterday?
Do you have the post?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
this system has a ton of energy to work with seems to be tightning up this morning last night we had a really high tide
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95L will probably be hurricane tomorrow.
Track will shift NW and with all the moisture in the carribean he will become a big storm heading for the GOM.
Keep safe.
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2440. scott39
Quoting Cotillion:


Did you see my extended post on the earlier period storms you were looking for (Gulf Coast homebrew majors from late Sept) yesterday?
No I had to leave suddenly
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
Quoting scott39:
I dont think 95L will be that big in the Carribean. Now if it makes it in the GOM that may be a different story. I think 95L still has a good shot of dissipating over Central America.


Did you see my extended post on the earlier period storms you were looking for (Gulf Coast homebrew majors from late Sept) yesterday?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2438. scott39
I dont think 95L will be that big in the Carribean. Now if it makes it in the GOM that may be a different story. I think 95L still has a good shot of dissipating over Central America.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
Quoting surfmom:
Love the EARLY morning's in here -
: ) Weather & cafe ...... greeting the daybreak
fun crew


And the mornings love you back, I'm sure!

Mornin' Surfie - is it yet sunrise over there?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2436. surfmom
Love the EARLY morning's in here -
: ) Weather & cafe' ...... greeting the daybreak
fun crew
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Quoting Neapolitan:
As Cotillion says, it's been awhile since the Atlantic was without a storm; the 5AM TWO is the first one since 5AM September 10th without one. It seems pretty likely, though--to me, anyway--that Matthew will be with us today, maintaining our string of 17 consecutive days with a named system (and giving us our 32nd out of 33 days with a named system).

Too, the NHC expects Lisa to turn back into a minimal TS for a couple of days, though they don't sound particularly confident in that given her environment. FWIW, Lisa is as of now the third least energetic storm this season in terms of ACE; only Gaston and Bonnie gathered less.

Ex-Julia is still keeping up a bit of convection and swirl, and is s-l-o-w-l-y meandering down into the MDR, though I seriously doubt she'll make it far enough south to hit any life-sustaining warmth. Too bad; she's trying so hard... ;-)


Not sure about Matthew himself, but TD15 might surface later tonight. It was always key for him to move beyond 75W, which it'll do later on (I suppose gender cannot be given to invests?)

Btw Nea, you do have somewhat of a Jeremy Irons complexion about you...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2434. IKE
Latest SHIPS run has it at 17.0N and 90.6W on the end of the run(at 120 hours)....dying out over central America...Link
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2433. surfmom
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, I see the models havent enlightened us anymore. watching and waiting.
--foot tapping, eying the surfboard....twitching & sighing
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2432. surfmom
Quoting Chicklit:

I am going to try to go back to sleep.
It may take just a few hours to get to TD though.
Check the MOON first -- it's Incredible!!!!! Spied Jupiter & Uranus last night w/Good binoculars
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As Cotillion says, it's been awhile since the Atlantic was without a storm; the 5AM TWO is the first one since 5AM September 10th without one. It seems pretty likely, though--to me, anyway--that Matthew will be with us today, maintaining our string of 17 consecutive days with a named system (and giving us our 32nd out of 33 days with a named system).

Too, the NHC expects Lisa to turn back into a minimal TS for a couple of days, though they don't sound particularly confident in that given her environment. FWIW, Lisa is as of now the third least energetic storm this season in terms of ACE; only Gaston and Bonnie gathered less.

Ex-Julia is still keeping up a bit of convection and swirl, and is s-l-o-w-l-y meandering down into the MDR, though I seriously doubt she'll make it far enough south to hit any life-sustaining warmth. Too bad; she's trying so hard... ;-)
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2430. scott39
Goodmorning, I see the models havent enlightened us anymore. watching and waiting.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6774
2429. surfmom
Buenos - night birds & Morning to the early birds -
Up early.... got waves on the mind....

TrauamaBoy -- what did you pay? roundbale? Flakes?

Bahia Seed is off the wall !!! - the drought is nasty.
FL is okay this year with hay & roundbales this year -- last year there were bidding wars
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seems as if the invest is getting more organized and seems as if has slowed alittle the buoy pictured above looks fake surreal shot
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NASA GEOS-5 model loop

Final image


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In the long range, all the models are predicting a north to northeast movement. Models differ over how far it will move to the north and northeast. Even the CMC, pushign the system further west than other models, is forecasting the storm to punch into the yucatan, weaken and enlarge, then move almost due east. Due east?
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61 degrees... overcast, light showers. Chance of thunderstorms later.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting IKE:
Latest models on 95L...Link


Pretty unanimous among models. Storm will stall north of Honduras.
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2422. IKE
Latest models on 95L...Link
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2421. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRI THEN WILL WEAKEN SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE FAR NW GULF LATE SUN REACHING TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS
LATE MON. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN THEN WILL LINGER IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH MON.

...........................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A 1007 MB AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 13N73W ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE W
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AND SAT. THE LOW WILL THEN
LINGER IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN
AND MON. EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
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Morning folks.

No tropical storm in the Atlantic! Been a while.

The 00z GFS is looking a bit more likely with it not spinning 7 storms at once, though the 2nd seems to be a split of the first... which doesn't make much sense either.

The Euro's hard to tell whether it's a different storm going north or not.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Blow up of convection is just east of the center. Not over the center. Am i getting this right?
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In my four years at FSU, tallahassee, there was not a single hurricane scare. Ivan did at one point seem to threaten the big bend area. We did get Fay. But that was until she crossed florida twice, coming from the east with a large center. Lots of light rain.
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Quoting 1992Andrew:


Uncertain, yes. But still, the GFS has been consistent. I read the cut off low is suppose to stick around over Arkansas for quite a while, allowing Matthew to travel towards the north longer. Not just a dip and exiting trough scenario.


Yes, that upper low will be the key player in this, both in terms of track and intensity.
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Quoting IKE:
Tallahassee,FL. long-term....

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ALL THE 00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE FORECAST A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE DETAILS. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST THIS LOW FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES) AND TAKE THIS LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GEM HAVE THE LOW CENTERED FARTHER NORTH...AND NOT QUITE AS
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES (NO RETROGRADING). THUS THE
GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR LONGER...AHEAD OF
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF/GEM BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK. THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO FORECAST A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE (YET TO DEVELOP) TO MOVE INTO NORTH FL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WET AND WINDY WEATHER EVENT
FOR US. WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM ALSO DEVELOP A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEIR SOLUTION (WITH THE 500
MB TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FARTHER EAST) SHEARS THE
CYCLONE OUT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS MID
LATITUDE WEATHER SO FAR SOUTH (INCLUDING A BAROCLINIC
ZONE...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT)...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF AN INCREASINGLY-TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL VERIFY (AS THE GFS FORECAST CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM FROM FSU
INDICATES). WE WOULD EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BECOME LESS WARM CORE AND
SYMMETRICAL AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IS
ABOUT AS LARGE AS IT GETS...INDICATING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS FORECAST. WE OPTED TO GO WITH THE 12 UTC WEDNESDAY ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTION...BRINGING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION BY
EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT KEEPING A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED MOISTURE BAND
OVER OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES (WHERE THERE WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN). WE EXPECT MORE CHANGES WILL HAVE TO BE MADE TO THIS
FORECAST WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE...AS SMALL CHANGES IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON OUR
VARIOUS FORECAST PARAMETERS. IN FACT...EVEN THOUGH THE 00 UTC ECMWF
WAS SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN (WHICH WE USED FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE)...THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN OUR
WIND/DEWPOINT/POP FORECAST. THIS IS AN UNUSUALLY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.



Unusually low confidence forecast = many sleepless nights ahead.
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A likely scenario is that the storm dissipates over central america. The invest has not gain much latitude and is moving at 15 mph. At the moment its heading towards Nicaragua. Isn't the High suppose to back away within twenty four hours?
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2414. IKE
Tallahassee,FL. long-term....

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ALL THE 00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE FORECAST A LARGE CUTOFF 500 MB LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE IS IN THE DETAILS. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST THIS LOW FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES) AND TAKE THIS LOW SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GEM HAVE THE LOW CENTERED FARTHER NORTH...AND NOT QUITE AS
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES (NO RETROGRADING). THUS THE
GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR LONGER...AHEAD OF
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ECMWF/GEM BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION BY MID WEEK. THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO FORECAST A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE (YET TO DEVELOP) TO MOVE INTO NORTH FL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WET AND WINDY WEATHER EVENT
FOR US. WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM ALSO DEVELOP A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEIR SOLUTION (WITH THE 500
MB TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM FARTHER EAST) SHEARS THE
CYCLONE OUT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS MID
LATITUDE WEATHER SO FAR SOUTH (INCLUDING A BAROCLINIC
ZONE...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT)
...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF AN INCREASINGLY-TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL VERIFY (AS THE GFS FORECAST CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM FROM FSU
INDICATES). WE WOULD EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BECOME LESS WARM CORE AND
SYMMETRICAL AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IS
ABOUT AS LARGE AS IT GETS...INDICATING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS FORECAST. WE OPTED TO GO WITH THE 12 UTC WEDNESDAY ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTION...BRINGING THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION BY
EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT KEEPING A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED MOISTURE BAND
OVER OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES (WHERE THERE WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN). WE EXPECT MORE CHANGES WILL HAVE TO BE MADE TO THIS
FORECAST WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE...AS SMALL CHANGES IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON OUR
VARIOUS FORECAST PARAMETERS. IN FACT...EVEN THOUGH THE 00 UTC ECMWF
WAS SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN (WHICH WE USED FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE)...THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN OUR
WIND/DEWPOINT/POP FORECAST. THIS IS AN UNUSUALLY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
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2413. jonelu
Looks to me like the COC is right about over 13.5N 72.5W ir there abouts and its wrapping up..
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Quoting btwntx08:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
336 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AFTER A BRIEF
TEMPORARY DRYING SPELL THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE
BACK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL SURGE WILL BE DUE TO
THE APPROACH OF AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS
THIS ALREADY MENTIONED. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS
THE MID LEVEL FLOW BUCKLES OVER THE MIDWEST SPORTING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF EARLY ON IN THE LONG RANGE TIME PERIOD. THE TROUGH DEVELOPS
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MISSOURI SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS WEAK
AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO BE VERY SLOW IN MOVING OUT THE CWA AND COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LOW PUSHES FARTHER EAST
ALLOWING FOR A SECOND SURGE INCREASING THE NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH WITH WITH THIS SCENARIO THEN
THE GFS WHICH TAKES THE CLOSED LOW AND CUTS IT OFF FROM THE MAIN
JET AND SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH WITH QUICKER DRYING. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD END LATE SUNDAY THE EARLIEST OR MONDAY AFTERNOON. NICE DRY
AUTUMN AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLY BY
TUESDAY AND STICK AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO BE BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THERE
MIGHT BE A DRY POT OF GOLD AT THE END OF THE RAINBOW. IF THIS
PATTERN DOES TRANSPIRE THERE SHOULD BE NO ILL AFFECT FROM THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MODELS SUGGEST THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW.



Nice discussion on the trough. For sure the trough is acting as a texas shield.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.