Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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3 Days Out



6 Days Out



Do they really expect the cold front to dig that far South, seems a little early for such a strong front this time of year that far south.
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If 95L was moving so fast on Monday, why is it still where it is today?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning Ike. Where do you see the coc this morning ? Cayman Islands very overcast this morning with rain and gusty winds off and on.


Oh, I didn't know you were in the Caymans. Yuck. This must suck much for you.
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2508. scott39
Still looks like on the latest GFS 6Z that 95L becomes a TC going over the West end of Cuba with a turn to the NW at the end of the run. Looks like the Keys are coming into play as well as S Fl.IMO
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Good Morning, all.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1439
Quoting IKE:


LOL.

I guess with 95L...what we're witnessing is foreplay that's gone on for a long time...
Good morning Ike. Where do you see the coc this morning ? Cayman Islands very overcast this morning with rain and gusty winds off and on.
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2505. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...
Goodmorning
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
2503. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
2502. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Too bad I live in one of those areas, I am just looking for peace of mind Link

Help me out MLB NWS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

THE FORECAST FOR WED-THU CONTINUES TO BE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
00Z RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DRIFT A TROPICAL SYSTEM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTO FLORIDA ON THU. I HAVE FOLLOWED THE
MODELS HANDLING OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR MORE THAN 10 DAYS AND
HAVE SEEN ALL KINDS OF SOLUTIONS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS
NO WAY TO HANG YOUR HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL OR SOLUTION WHEN THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS NOT EVEN FORMED YET. OFTEN THESE KINDS OF
SYSTEMS HANG OUT IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR AWHILE BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH. THEREFORE WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND KEEP POPS AT 40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THE MODELS GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THINGS.
Link



LOL.

I guess with 95L...what we're witnessing is foreplay that's gone on for a long time...
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2501. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Upper level low on the latest NOGAPS run at 144 hours...Link

Looks like a protective shield for the northern GOM.
Good, I knew you would find a shield for us. Im ready to enjoy the fall without TC residue.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
seems as if the models historically have a tougher time last third of the season
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2498. klew136
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A STRONG RIDGE OF WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP WITH
STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...DRIVING AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER TO THE WEST. THE MOISTURE AROUND THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IS INCREASING AND MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AS DEPICTED BY CIMSS
MIMIC DERIVED PWATS. DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL LEAVE THE CATEGORICAL POPS IN FOR TODAY AND CHANCE
FOR TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDING ONTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL STATES...WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SPINS UP OVER NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE MEAN
FLOW SATURDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SLIGHTLY...AND MORE APPRECIABLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS
WEAKER FLOW MAY OFFER A BETTER CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL LOW TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY.
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Quoting IKE:


What I notice is the trend of the ECMWF and GFS....

Looking at both the ECMWF and GFS..looks like the focus is on the western Caribbean...Central America...Cuba...peninsula Florida and the Bahamas.

If you don't live in any of those areas, you may be safe from tropical systems for at least the next 7-10 days.


Sorry Ike, but that is funny.

So basically, if you live in the Caribbean.
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2496. IKE
Upper level low on the latest NOGAPS run at 144 hours...Link

Looks like a protective shield for the northern GOM.
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Quoting IKE:


What I notice is the trend of the ECMWF and GFS....

Looking at both the ECMWF and GFS..looks like the focus is on the western Caribbean...Central America...Cuba...peninsula Florida and the Bahamas.

If you don't live in any of those areas, you may be safe from tropical systems for at least the next 7-10 days.


Too bad I live in one of those areas, I am just looking for peace of mind Link

Help me out MLB NWS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

THE FORECAST FOR WED-THU CONTINUES TO BE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
00Z RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DRIFT A TROPICAL SYSTEM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTO FLORIDA ON THU. I HAVE FOLLOWED THE
MODELS HANDLING OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR MORE THAN 10 DAYS AND
HAVE SEEN ALL KINDS OF SOLUTIONS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS
NO WAY TO HANG YOUR HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL OR SOLUTION WHEN THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS NOT EVEN FORMED YET. OFTEN THESE KINDS OF
SYSTEMS HANG OUT IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR AWHILE BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH. THEREFORE WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND KEEP POPS AT 40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THE MODELS GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THINGS.
Link

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Umm... lots of speculation which is useless at this point as with all tropical systems. This baby could be a hurricane tomorrow for all we know. Looks to be getting its act together and once it does it will ramp up quickly.
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2493. scott39
Quoting scott39:
If you look at the latest animated GFS run closely. It looks like 95L goes over Cuba and then turns to the NW ever so slightly before heading N next to the West Coast of FL.
This is the experimental run. Go look
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Appears that the Euro shows a second low moving north, but it is difficult to tell if it looses 95L for a period of time and then redevelops it, or if it is a different low.




I agree, nrti.

It could be a case of the remnants of 95L help fire up low #2 which then tracks north based on the Euro.

More of a defined split in time on the 6z GFS between 95L and low #2.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Good morning all. From the Lake Charles NWS this morning.

.LONG TERM...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR DRAGGED INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF THE MUCH COLDER GFS
WITH THE EURO ON TEMPS NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP PROTECT THE NORTHERN GULF FROM ANY TROPICAL
SYSTEMS...WHICH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT EMERGING NORTH OUT
OF THE CARRIBEAN. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE COLDER GFS COULD BEAR
FRUIT BY WEEK`S END AS THESE SYSTEMS MERGE WELL TO OUR EAST. CHOSE
NOT TO CHANGE THE GOING FCST TEMPS MUCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES
BUT EVEN THE MID 80S OF NEXT WEEK`S MAX TEMPS WILL GIVE MUCH
RELIEF. FCSTED TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO, AN INDICATION OF HOW
WARM AND DRY WE HAVE BEEN.

Have a great day. Capitalism comes calling early today.

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2490. IKE
NOGAPS run...Link
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2489. scott39
If you look at the latest animated GFS run closely. It looks like 95L goes over Cuba and then turns to the NW ever so slightly before heading N next to the West Coast of FL.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
2488. IKE
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Seems like at one point in time or another over the last few days that this storm had hit every part of Florida. Be interesting to see where it eventually ends up. Be nice if it just goes south of Florida and doesn't actually hit any land.


What I notice is the trend of the ECMWF and GFS....

Looking at both the ECMWF and GFS..looks like the focus is on the western Caribbean...Central America...Cuba...peninsula Florida and the Bahamas.

If you don't live in any of those areas, you may be safe from tropical systems for at least the next 7-10 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Seems like at one point in time or another over the last few days that this storm had hit every part of Florida. Be interesting to see where it eventually ends up. Be nice if it just goes south of Florida and doesn't actually hit any land.
LOL. South of Florida is Cuba and not very much open water between Cuba and the keys so would have to hit something if it went south of Florida.
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fiji would be sick $5 grand for a wk at tavarua
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Quoting weatherwart:


Oh yeah, looks a lot better than even late last night. Colder, that's for sure. Well, I think the NHC may name it a TD sometime in these next 12-24 hours, yes?
I agree. It is looking much better .
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like the GFS has 95L going inland over Central America...Belize, and dying out...then another low forms near 80W and it travels north, crossing southern Florida, and winds up over the Tennessee valley in 10 days.

Seems like this has been going on for 10 days...with a long-range GFS system still 7-10 days out. Why you can't trust long range models.


Seems like at one point in time or another over the last few days that this storm had hit every part of Florida. Be interesting to see where it eventually ends up. Be nice if it just goes south of Florida and doesn't actually hit any land.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I looked at the shortwave but also
RGB. It does look to have a very good spin this morning and vorticity is 100% improved since yesterday.


Oh yeah, looks a lot better than even late last night. Colder, that's for sure. Well, I think the NHC may name it a TD sometime in these next 12-24 hours, yes?
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2482. scott39
After looking at the Euro more, it looks to kill it over S FL.
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2481. IKE
Looks like the GFS has 95L going inland over Central America...Belize, and dying out...then another low forms near 80W and it travels north, crossing southern Florida, and winds up over the Tennessee valley in 10 days.

Seems like this has been going on for 10 days...with a long-range GFS system still 7-10 days out. Why you can't trust long range models.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Appears that the Euro shows a second low moving north, but it is difficult to tell if it looses 95L for a period of time and then redevelops it, or if it is a different low.


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Quoting IKE:
180 hour GFS....



216 hour GFS....



Doesn't develop 95L, but develops this 'second low' which then tracks into Florida. 95L skims the Mosquito Coast, but that seems to take the life out of it.

Or so it seems.

That may seem why it's odd why the GFS keeps it 'stalled' over the Yucatan for a long time - because it doesn't stall it at all.

Of course, it'll all change in about 6 hours.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting weatherwart:


Good morning! You could be right. I was looking at the shortwave. Kind of hard to tell with the convection popping on top. What are you looking at?
I looked at the shortwave but also
RGB. It does look to have a very good spin this morning and vorticity is 100% improved since yesterday.
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2477. scott39
Quoting IKE:
180 hour GFS....



216 hour GFS....

Looks like a ride up the West side now. Sheesh
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Looks closer to 14.0N to me.


Good morning! You could be right. I was looking at the shortwave. Kind of hard to tell with the convection popping on top. What are you looking at?
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Good morning, everyone. Running late again this morning, but was talking to my son in Germany. He should be home in about three weeks. What's going on in the Gulf?
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2474. IKE
180 hour GFS....



216 hour GFS....

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2472. scott39
Quoting Cotillion:


Well, riding the Florida east coast is difficult for any storm to do - only Cleo and David really come to mind in actually doing it, and they were Cape Verde trackers.

There have been examples of storms coming from the Caribbean as 'homebrew', crossing Florida prior to making a second landfall on the US East Coast. Here's one:



As for the Euro, I can't tell if it kills 95L off in Central America with a second low spinning up which goes up by Florida or whether it's a single entity. All of the models seem confused, to be honest - mainly over this second low.

This may be a storm more confusing and difficult to predict than normal: Timing of the trough, land interaction, the positioning and strength of the ULL, as well as competing vortexes in the Caribbean.

Furthermore, we are dealing with a storm that is either: a.) Not properly developed yet, or b.) [If it is a 2nd low that causes the run across the Florida peninsula] a low that hasn't even developed.
Looks like time will tell. Hopefully Models have a better grip on this soon. I have family members in Palm Bay and Melbourne Fl. along with the N Gulf Coast, so eyes are peeled.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Morning Aqua, CoopsWife.

Yes, it could end up just dissipating over Central America. That's the first question of a series of many - if it crosses Nicaragua, how far inland does it go? If it doesn't cross Central America, then of course, it answers that question.

It's asking a lot for even a hurricane to gallivant across the Nicaraguan/Honduran mountains and live to tell the tale, let alone anything weaker. It has happened before (see Florida Keys Hurricane of 1906), but it's rare.

It could be a case of remnant regeneration, but who knows.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting weatherwart:


Just guessing, I'd say 72.8W 13.2N
Good morning. Looks closer to 14.0N to me.
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The Euro is confusing. Looking at the 850 vort, I can't tell if it's flipping this invest around or developing a new low around Hondorus and sending that one north. Strange.

The GFS looks just as strange.
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Morning, Surf - breakfast is on the sideboard - if you don't see what you want, rummage in the fruit bowl on the table.

Busy day - just popped in for a quick look at the models (thanks, Ike) before I head out for the day.
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2467. aquak9
g'morning WU-Bloggers worldwide

if ANYONE'S gonna stay w/surfmom, it'll be ME, I got dibs

I know we've all been bored out of our (loofah) gourd this Season™, but c'mon...a whole page of talk from CrownWeather, and this is the last line:

The other alternative is that if this does come ashore in Central America, then we would see significant weakening and possible dissipation due to the mountainous terrain of Central America.

Which is completely possible.
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Quoting scott39:
Thanks, I was referring farther N than FL. on the East Coast. The current ECMWF run is confusing to me. What is it showing with 95L long term?


Well, riding the Florida east coast is difficult for any storm to do - only Cleo and David really come to mind in actually doing it, and they were Cape Verde trackers.

There have been examples of storms coming from the Caribbean as 'homebrew', crossing Florida prior to making a second landfall on the US East Coast. Here's one:



As for the Euro, I can't tell if it kills 95L off in Central America with a second low spinning up which goes up by Florida or whether it's a single entity. All of the models seem confused, to be honest - mainly over this second low.

This may be a storm more confusing and difficult to predict than normal: Timing of the trough, land interaction, the positioning and strength of the ULL, as well as competing vortexes in the Caribbean.

Furthermore, we are dealing with a storm that is either: a.) Not properly developed yet, or b.) [If it is a 2nd low that causes the run across the Florida peninsula] a low that hasn't even developed.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting whepton3:
Morning all... Looks like 14N 73W could be making a run at being the center... or somewhere thereabouts.


Just guessing, I'd say 72.8W 13.2N
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2464. scott39
Quoting Cotillion:


That would be a very specific track. It wouldn't happen often, as the tracks tend to move in a south to north motion past the Southern Gulf of Mexico rather than continuing westwards due to troughs eroding ridges and such.

Hurricane King was close in 1950, but only paralleled the coast until Central Florida when it went inland. Morever, making a second landfall on the US East Coast depends whether you classify the Floridian eastern shoreline as part of the US East Coast or not.

I can have a look, but nothing specific comes to mind except that aforementioned example.
Thanks, I was referring farther N than FL. on the East Coast. The current ECMWF run is confusing to me. What is it showing with 95L long term?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
2463. surfmom
Quoting scott39:
You sound ready! Can I come stay with you during a storm.
*giggle*
sorry - Occupado ; )
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2462. surfmom
Quoting Cotillion:


Haha, touché!

(Though, the whole Brit accent thing is overrated; trust me, I know...)
....
lol -- Who YOU talking to?????? heh, heh, heh

though I've been known to listen to spanish accents very well bawhahahahaaa
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i dont think 95L will see much land in short term.
Pattern brings 95L mainly over water into the GOM.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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