Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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2561. HCW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Uh-oh...then the NHC bashing on the 5 day cone and track forecast can begin again.

Stay tuned!

$$


You sound confident in that blogcast.

I bet Cantore is polishing the goggles already.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
2559. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Uh-oh...then the NHC bashing on the 5 day cone and track forecast can begin again.

Stay tuned!

$$
You will have more lovers then when it was out to sea, unless they have it going into Central America and Dying.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
Quoting IKE:


Uh-oh...then the NHC bashing on the 5 day cone and track forecast can begin again.

Stay tuned!

$$


LOL, I was thinking maybe NHC wants to delay designation as long as possible as not to have to issue a forecast. From all appearances it will be a difficult storm to forecast.
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Good Morning Everyone!

Up to 80% I see.

Not surprising. Looks like more of a circulation based on satellite. The 850 vorticity increased and is even farther north than last night.

Still under some easterly shear, but this should slowly lessen over the next 36 hours as it moves under a massive anticyclone aloft. All in all, strengthening should be favored, particularly tomorrow.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2555. WxLogic
Jeje... at least my observations were not too far off:

8AM TWO:

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...

AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.


Here's the favorable conditions:

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2554. shawn26
Are there any west winds yet with 95L?
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2551. IKE
Quoting BenBIogger:


Kinda reminds a lot of TS Gamma for some reason.


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not too worried yet but still watching very close. I know how they tend to ramp up pretty quick in the western Caribbean and the way the models show it looks like we will definitely get something from it either before it hits Nicaragua or when it makes the turn .


Yep. Stay dry and safe. Well, I'm headed south to Tampa... in traffic. I hate this. Later y'all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2549. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon scheduled to arrive at 10:30 AM EDT, my opinion advisories start at 11 AM EDT or shortly thereafter.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1245Z
D. 13.0N 74.0W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT


Uh-oh...then the NHC bashing on the 5 day cone and track forecast can begin again.

Stay tuned!

$$
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2548. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon scheduled to arrive at 10:30 AM EDT, my opinion advisories start at 11 AM EDT or shortly thereafter.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1245Z
D. 13.0N 74.0W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT


Good... in my opinion it is actually worth to check it out now than yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.




Kinda reminds a lot of TS Gamma for some reason.
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2546. scott39
2532-- I couldnt see that. Can you post it again?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
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2544. WxLogic
Quoting P451:



Good post.
Let's see how 95L handles the transition to DMin. If convection persists we will have a TD today. If not, well, I guess we wait until tomorrow morning as it gains more and more room to develop as it moves west and the South American coastline dips southward.

I am still watching that accompanying feature that is now over Hispaniola. It is definitely a player in the disruption of 95L but how much is a tough call. Once 95L gains more water room that feature may play less of a role. As of now that feature and South America kind of have 95 squashed into a small area. Once the SA element ceases to be a problem then 95L will develop regardless of the feature to the north.

Today we look for persistence of convection.

TD at 5pm
Matthew at 11pm

I think could be a good guess although possibly bold depending on how 95L handles the diurnal cycle today.


Indeed... I'm expecting 70% to 80% increase by the 8AM TWO given the fact that it has more persistent convection since DMIN last night which I believe it fair OK. If further organization is seen by the 2PM TWO then we could be looking at 90% to 100%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2543. IKE
...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Recon scheduled to arrive at 10:30 AM EDT, my opinion advisories start at 11 AM EDT or shortly thereafter.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1245Z
D. 13.0N 74.0W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS run...Link


What The? Strange run..
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2538. Patrap
06z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dymamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
lol weatherwart well yep he's from cayman and he has it in his name stormwatcherCI(Cayman Islands)
LOL. Yes, he is from Cayman but he is a she.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
lol weatherwart well yep he's from cayman and he has it in his name stormwatcherCI(Cayman Islands)


Hahaha. I didn't know. Could be Criminal Investigator. Crayola International. Cattle Inc. Cinnamon Importer. Croatian Immigrant.
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2535. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:


Summing my obs from my past post... I do believe there's a potential for a more noticeable development as it approaches the upper high E of Nicaragua. Its gaining latitude so there might be a chance that it might just grace the Central American coast line instead of just slamming completely into it.
Does it look like more models are trending N missing Central America?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
2534. Patrap
95L Rainbow Image



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UP TO 80%

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2530. WxLogic
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Good morning. Looks like our invest is building convection. Got any hints as to what could be in store down the road.


Summing my obs from my past post... I do believe there's a potential for a more noticeable development as it approaches the upper high E of Nicaragua. Its gaining latitude so there might be a chance that it might just grace the Central American coast line instead of just slamming completely into it.
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Maybe NHC should wait for after Recon to finish investigating later today.


NHC tends to wait for recon to give the nod to a classification if it's going in anyway.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting P451:


I don't see how that would be possible. The system just barely became discernable in the past few hours as we reached DMax. It needs to get a whole lot better organized and it needs to persist through the day. If it does I'd say TD at 5pm maybe. Let's see how it handles the transition towards DMin. Will the convection wane or will it persist?

I _could_ see the NHC classifying the system on he early side given it's location and if they believe it's a given to develop today - versus if this was way out in the Atlantic where it wouldn't be a threat for a long period of time.


Maybe NHC should wait for after Recon to finish investigating later today.
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2527. scott39
I guess models past where 95L is now, is no longer open for discussion. LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
look for very heavy rain with this trough the system is coming from the deep tropics drum roll for the 8am
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2524. WxLogic
Currently there's more convection associated with 95L than yesterday thanks to DMAX. I estimate the center to be around 13.5N 73.5W with the heaviest convection to the E and N of the center:



Vorticity wise... 95L appears to be better stacked now that it has pulled away from SA, but will need more convection to increase its vorticity at 500MB:

850MB:



500MB:



Low level convergence is there and should assist on further convection generation today and there's an OK upper level divergence:



Finally, the upper level anticyclone has relocated further W, closer to Central America and it should actually get better organized as it approaches Nicaragua. I believe NAM has a general idea on its development cycle.
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lol weatherwart well yep he's from cayman and he has it in his name stormwatcherCI(Cayman Islands)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
351 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR TODAY DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH THE 50 POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH...40 SOUTH CENTRAL AND 30 ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY WEST OUT INTO THE
GULF THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING. DURING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE
COAST ON FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN SOME ON SATURDAY ALLOWING THE SEA
BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND A SHORT DISTANCE. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
DOMINATES THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES WEST ACROSS THE STATE WITH A MOIST EAST AND SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE HELPS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

THEN FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH OR
LOW ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE NATION WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND APPROACHES FL AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLING THESE FEATURES
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TREND
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH 24/06Z ALTHOUGH SOME EARLY MORNING CUMULUS
MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR. ANTICIPATE VCTS WITH BKN VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS EASTERLY WITH SOME GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND
SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME
WITH A SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

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Quoting IKE:


13-14N and 73-74W.

Looks to be moving along at a good clip.
Thanks.
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Quoting weatherwart:


Oh, I didn't know you were in the Caymans. Yuck. This must suck much for you.
Not too worried yet but still watching very close. I know how they tend to ramp up pretty quick in the western Caribbean and the way the models show it looks like we will definitely get something from it either before it hits Nicaragua or when it makes the turn .
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2519. scott39
Quoting P451:
95L still very disorganized.

This has been the norm so far this season in the Caribbean and 95L is very close to land and will be so until it moves further west south of Jamiaca - then it will have the room to develop.

That feature to it's north has also disrupted the system over the past few days.

It still has a good chance to develop and possibly be a hurricane as it landfalls in Central America but I'd still like it to develop into a depression before even making that call.

As to following those long range models that had Florida getting bombed with a major hurricane, well, maybe some will now see why the past three days I and other bloggers have suggested to wait and see before putting any faith in those solutions.

Does the latest GFS 6Z carry any weight?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
I hope this one stays away from all people, but then I tend to see the glass half full.

Classroom of kids waiting on me. Have a great day everyone!
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2511. blsealevel 11:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
3 Days Out

Local mets in S. TX are saying we'll see the front on Sunday or Monday with temps down to 67 at night (but then they're usually never right); however, hoping that it'll reach us.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 340
2513. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning Ike. Where do you see the coc this morning ? Cayman Islands very overcast this morning with rain and gusty winds off and on.


13-14N and 73-74W.

Looks to be moving along at a good clip.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
good morning guys wow looking outside my door everything looks brown/grays and the clouds above black gray anyway I see we may very well have TD 15 or maybe even TS matthew at 11am today
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3 Days Out



6 Days Out



Do they really expect the cold front to dig that far South, seems a little early for such a strong front this time of year that far south.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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