Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

Share this Blog
7
+

Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2611 - 2561

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

2611. scott39
Quoting osuwxguynew:


Lol. Very True.

I actually moved from Ohio to South Carolina. So I'm possibly in line for some effects from this system. As a weather geek, I'll enjoy it. But I don't live on the coast. If I did, and I owned a place...I would for sure be hoping it didn't strengthen or hit.
Same here, They are no fun at all!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
2610. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Aerial view. I don't believe it - is that remnants of former x Julia? Lisa not looking all that impressive...down to a TD.

That is the remnant of Julia..Here is our Caribbean Low 6 days out...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
30kt mph winds, 1007mb and a 'LO' tag is generally the indication that a TD is close, if not imminent. Particularly if it crops up 2 or 3 times in a row.

(In this case, due to recon, I'd expect the former. They'll let the HHs do their thing).
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2607. tkeith
proximity to land is the only inhibitor I see to keep 95L down...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the lastest GFS has a realistic grip on things.
95 is going to form a storm right before it hits land and as the Doc say get stuck in central america for a while. The was predicted by the GFS 4 days ago and has been consistent. As another trough approaches in about 4 days and a cold front makes it down into the area..either 95 will reform or a new COC will form off the coast and the cold front/trough will pick that up and curve it over Cuba/Hispanola then carry it north up into CONUS along what will be a stalled trough from the front and along the western periphery of the MA ridge. But it won't be the Monster storm of 250 hour prediction. More like a Paloma because it's going to have to deal with dry air and possibly shear to it's west.
Small chance the front will even be powerful enough to make it a wrong way storm although a front that powerful this early in the season would be amazing but the fact it forecast to go so far south is impressive.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/model_l.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/model_lu.shtml
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PYEA11.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-avn.html

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2605. IKE
Quoting seflagamma:


are you talking about me??? LOL

Good morning everyone, back in the office today but had to checkin to see what 95L is up to this morning.

I will be checking in and out as I can.



No, but hello.

95L...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Morning, it's 8:08 and the NHC 8 a.m. Tropical Weather Discussion isn't posted yet.
How unlike them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2602. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Shear forecast is very conducive & still looking highly in place for development. And we already are aware of the remarkably high TCHP's looming.

Can you change those to not look that bad please?LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
Quoting scott39:
Believe it or not but I think very few on here, are having a nervous breakdown, when its NOT coming to them.


Lol. Very True.

I actually moved from Ohio to South Carolina. So I'm possibly in line for some effects from this system. As a weather geek, I'll enjoy it. But I don't live on the coast. If I did, and I owned a place...I would for sure be hoping it didn't strengthen or hit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2600. pottery
Good Morning all.
Hot one here this a.m., with high humidity.
Cloudburst over the Capital yesterday afternoon caused minor landslides and flooding on the 2 main exits from the City (Port-of-Spain) creating major Havoc!

The Trop.Atl looks pretty Benign today, as though the Waves are calming down.

95L is going to bring very heavy rains to somewhere, regardless of development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2599. tkeith
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some red tide off shore Sarasota County, and Some brown tide off Lee and Collier counties.
The bloom of 2005 was a 12-month siege that killed sea life in an area the size of Rhode Island
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2556. P451

Looking at a whole page of GFS model cycle comparision statistics it is difficult to see a major difference in model cycles. Generally you could say the 00Z and 12Z correlate better, but not by much. I also however believe the 00Z and 12Z cycles are better, but just based on they have the upper air data.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L's pressure dropped back to 1007 (after going up a point early this morning), and winds are still at 30 knots. ATCF has designated it as a "Low" rather than a mere "Disturbance":

AL, 95, 2010092312, , BEST, 0, 135N, 748W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13537
2595. txjac
Looks to me like they are pointed at Cuba ..has to get over that first
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sailingallover:
Interesting feature at 37W 35N could that be the remains of Julia?
Wonder whats brewing in the western gulf,s/e of Brownsville ,Texas?good swirl their this morning..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
oops sorry stormwatcherCI I forgot that you are a woman well ok no let see

lol weatherwart well yep she's from cayman and she has it in her name stormwatcherCI(Cayman Islands)
No problem.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:




are you talking about me??? LOL

Good morning everyone, back in the office today but had to checkin to see what 95L is up to this morning.

I will be checking in and out as I can.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting osuwxguynew:


Yeah, I don't understand the nervous breakdown and worry at this point. Wait until something forms and the NHC and the models have a good handle on things. Then if it looks like it is headed to your area, do the prudent things, prepare your house and then leave if necessary. Things can always be replaced. That's why you have insurance...


Very true, but you know how it goes... LOL

This far out, the only way I would be concerned is if I was getting ready to take a cruise to Belize & Honduras. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2587. scott39
Quoting osuwxguynew:


Yeah, I don't understand the nervous breakdown and worry at this point. Wait until something forms and the NHC and the models have a good handle on things. Then if it looks like it is headed to your area, do the prudent things, prepare your house and then leave if necessary. Things can always be replaced. That's why you have insurance...
Believe it or not but I think very few on here, are having a nervous breakdown, when its NOT coming to them.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Aerial view. I don't believe it - is that remnants of former x Julia? Lisa not looking all that impressive...down to a TD.

Julia has a yellow circle and is at 10%. Weird year for tropical systems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaptnDan142:


They may have to wait a bit longer than they anticipated. I can think of a couple offhand that will be candidates for a nervous breakdown before long. ;-)


Yeah, I don't understand the nervous breakdown and worry at this point. Wait until something forms and the NHC and the models have a good handle on things. Then if it looks like it is headed to your area, do the prudent things, prepare your house and then leave if necessary. Things can always be replaced. That's why you have insurance...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oops sorry stormwatcherCI I forgot that you are a woman well ok no let see

lol weatherwart well yep she's from cayman and she has it in her name stormwatcherCI(Cayman Islands)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2582. scott39
Does anybody think that once the trough reaches the GOM, That it could cause wind shear and dry air for 95L, if it gets in the GOM?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
Quoting sailingallover:
Interesting feature at 37W 35N could that be the remains of Julia?


Yep

2. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS
. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Morning! Can't disagree w/ you.


Morning to you as well. This is going to be a weird forecast down the road for sure!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Half the blog has been at DOOMCON 1 for the past 200 hours because of those GFS model runs destroying the Gulf Coast with a Cat 5.
They were inconsistent though..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Half the blog has been at DOOMCON 1 for the past 200 hours because of those GFS model runs destroying the Gulf Coast with a Cat 5.


They may have to wait a bit longer than they anticipated. I can think of a couple offhand that will be candidates for a nervous breakdown before long. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting feature at 37W 35N could that be the remains of Julia?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cajunkid:


Sorry Ike, but that is funny.

So basically, if you live in the Caribbean.

Hi All,
Well the CV season looks to be pretty much over. Lisa is still out there but as the troughs and fronts and shear pick up as cold air moves south storms don't make it very far West usually as evidenced by Lisa.
Plus front are starting to push through the Sahara
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2573. scott39
Quoting HCW:
Hmm That looks like what I was referring to earlier.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
Quoting IKE:


Honduras bound?


If not there, in the neighborhood for sure.

Gonna be an interesting one. So many possibilities.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2570. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


LOL, I was thinking maybe NHC wants to delay designation as long as possible as not to have to issue a forecast. From all appearances it will be a difficult storm to forecast.


You can say that again...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95 l ramping up but way far south. gonna be a NIcaragua and Belize issue
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh, and with the CoC pulling north as it did, I think there is a good chance that it'll remain north of Honduras and over water for a longer time than some of the models yesterday were showing...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Might be the case that if 95L does develop prior to grazing the Mosquito Coast (it doesn't look like a full blown hit at this point), it may stand a better chance down the road. One thing that is universal in the 'second low theory' that most of the models are projecting: 95L remains weak through its entire lifetime.

By doing so, its likely that its energy then gets transferred/sucked in by Low#2 which then takes the NE/NNE road.

If 95L does develop, it may well end up stop Low#2 from doing anything due to proximity. Does it take the same path? Looks pretty unclear.

Also to note, even if 95L (and whatever it grows up to be) doesn't make a direct landfall in Nicaragua doesn't mean that it won't be affected by land proximity. If it doesn't hit it or only just barely, it's going to be close to land for days. Central America isn't exactly flat. It'll have some effect, just how much remains to be seen.

Furthermore, those areas may well get pretty wet over the coming days along the shoreline regardless. Never the best situation for that part of the world (not as bad as Haiti, but some of those areas - particularly Guatemala further on up - have been drenched this year. Added rainfall is hardly desirable).
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
80% chance as of 8am!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2564. IKE
Quoting CaptnDan142:


You sound confident in that blogcast.

I bet Cantore is polishing the goggles already.


Honduras bound?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2563. scott39
Quoting P451:


I haven't looked at the models as of yet. I will continue to maintain the stance that I would want to see a depression classified first before giving the models much of a glance.

As to the models a rule of thumb is to use the 00Z or 12Z models. I don't like the 6Z and 18Z models and I know I'm not alone. They're not full runs.

I have also noticed in the past that the 00z or 12z models tend to verify better than any 6z or 18z models. I also notice that the 6z and 18z model runs tend to show generally the same things - while the 00z and 12z tend to team up to also show continuity. The two pairs always seem at odds with each other with track shifts, timing, intensity, etc.

An example as to what I am trying to say:

Fictitious System: 00z shows west and weak, then 6z will show more north and strong, then 12z goes back to more west and weak, then 18z will show more north and strong... ETC.

If you like what the 6z and 18z models do then you pay attention to those for continuity and discount the 12z and 0z runs. If you like what the 0z and 12z model runs show - you stick with them for continuity and discount the 6z and 18z model runs.

I've found the latter to be more accurate over time.

To each their own.

I never mix any 6z and 18z runs with 0z and 12z runs because then your continuity is broken.

It's as if you're looking at two entirely different model suites. (0z, 12z runs = one model /// 6z and 18z behave as if theyre an entirely different model)

...hope that wasn't too confusing.

No, actually it cleared it up. Thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6784
2561. HCW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2611 - 2561

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
77 °F
Overcast