Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

Share this Blog
7
+

Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 111 - 61

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
My filter setting changed all by itself to "show average" and won't let me change it back to "show all". Anybody know whats up with that?


Log out... log in
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
My filter setting changed all by itself to "show average" and won't let me change it back to "show all". Anybody know whats up with that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok, I'm out for awhile... Grandson is home sick today...so I have to cover for the daughter at work..... never hire family :(

Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a nasty mess in Canada, and yet another reason I think that nation's meteorlogical service might request retirement for the second time ever.

An interesting feature I bring up only for curiosity's sake, and not because there's any chance of regeneration: has anyone noticed the remnants of Julia still spinning around the Atlantic? The RGB wide shot clearly shows her COC at around 33.0N/38.5W, or a thousand or so miles NNW of Lisa. She's got good low-level circulation, but some very hefty shear is ripping off what tiny bit of convection she can produce and smearing it into a cirrus plume several hundred miles to her south. Strange to think that she and Igor were close to kissing last week, but now he's off to visit Santa's workshop while she's headed toward the Mediterranean... ;-)

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image

Igor took most of her low level moisture and mid to upper level energy for himself, and then threw her off as if she was a flea. They did more than kiss, I suspect .... be we'll save that for "Days of their Lives."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Sept. 22nd. 2010


Thank you very much Bob.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Florida is in the cone.They will like the rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post 97 the experts have spoken!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:
Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
I'm am getting a very ill feeling in my stomach what might be coming out of the Caribbean.
......our turn????,lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HPC Prelminiary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

DOWN SOUTH...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN /INVEST
95L/ TO THE NORTH ACROSS EITHER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN
CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST/LARGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WAS DISCOUNTED.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HEADED NORTH TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST/FLORIDA IN 7-10 DAYS. THE DETAILS WILL BE COORDINATED WITH
NHC AT 16Z. STAY TUNED.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, I am confused on steering of 95L once in the GOM. If a trough comes down and busts the high over N Gulf Coast and Fl. creating a weakness over both, before 95L gets there, how does the steering work then?
If a cold front dives farther South then you will get a solution like the current Euro which pushed Matthew across South Florida and then possibly up the East Coast. If the front lays back or stalls then Matthew can move farther West or maybe never even get into the GOM.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
Quoting SaintPatrick:
Anyone know what would keep this storm from coming to louisiana?


Voodoo and a gris gris?

It's still way to early to say where it's going. While it has a good chance to develop, it hasn't yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:


Its aliitle too early IMO to have a hard right turn with these systems. I would say a more gradual turn to the North if it happens. The GFS and Euro really dive that closed Low far Southward for this time of year. Alittle unusual for so early in the fall season. Thats why my confidence is still low in the extended.
Thats what I was thinking looking at Archives over the past 10 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SaintPatrick:
Anyone know what would keep this storm from coming to louisiana?


Cold/Cool Front...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Pray for shear because there isn't anything else down there to stop it.


Land interaction might just keep it from becoming a major monster in the Caribbean but, that is only for a while. I don't see much shear coming until the trough gets here but, that will be too late.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Anyone know what would keep this storm from coming to louisiana?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:


We are just about getting there. The first "real" cold front of the early fall season is on its way early next week for the Gulf Coast states. Thats why "Matthew" may get pulled North. Normally late Sept. into October systems in the Caribbean will want to get induced Northward.
Thanks, I am confused on steering of 95L once in the GOM. If a trough comes down and busts the high over N Gulf Coast and Fl. creating a weakness over both, before 95L gets there, how does the steering work then?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherguy03:


We are just about getting there. The first "real" cold front of the early fall season is on its way early next week for the Gulf Coast states. Thats why "Matthew" may get pulled North. Normally late Sept. into October systems in the Caribbean will want to get induced Northward.


Its aliitle too early IMO to have a hard right turn with these systems. I would say a more gradual turn to the North if it happens. The GFS and Euro really dive that closed Low far Southward for this time of year. Alittle unusual for so early in the fall season. Thats why my confidence is still low in the extended.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Looks like the GFS is forecasting a storm storm interaction of some sort. Interesting to note the shadow systems that have accompanied the big dogs this year. (Earl-Fiorna) (Igor-Julia)

next (Matthew-Nicole)?


like they are square dancing.

In 2004, If I remember the boy storms Charley and Ivan, hit the western part of the state and Frances and Jeanne, two girl named storms hit the east side of the state.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Unique solution from the WRF, develops the system trailing 95L.

Final image

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
WeatherGuy03-- will you look at post 37? Wilma was in Mid/Late Oct. Do you think climatalogy there is a favored Gulf Coast Land Fall this time of year?


We are just about getting there. The first "real" cold front of the early fall season is on its way early next week for the Gulf Coast states. Thats why "Matthew" may get pulled North. Normally late Sept. into October systems in the Caribbean will want to get induced Northward.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
Quoting TampaSpin:
I'm am getting a very ill feeling in my stomach what might be coming out of the Caribbean.


Pray for shear because there isn't anything else down there to stop it.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Looks like the GFS is forecasting a storm storm interaction of some sort. Interesting to note the shadow systems that have accompanied the big dogs this year. (Earl-Fiona) (Igor-Julia)

next (Matthew-Nicole)?
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting weatherguy03:
Thanks for the info on New Foundland and the follow-up on Karl!! Sometimes we forget about the impact these storms have besides the U.S..


So true...Destruction is destruction, human life is human life. No matter where they live.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
71 - Didn't a lot of people here doubt we could get a storm every 3-4 days? Hmmm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WeatherGuy03-- will you look at post 37? Wilma was in Mid/Late Oct. Do you think climatalogy there is a favored Gulf Coast Land Fall this time of year?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


I would begin evacuating Panama City..


oh please just bring us in pc area some rain! and get that dang HIGH off us! we are so parched...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Me too, I think this storm may be alot like Charlie.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
72. HCW
RI is looking likely as we get into Sat and Sunday with near perfect conditions. I would not be surprised to see a major cane as early as Sat evening in the 120mph range
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just wanted to repost this bit from today's By The Numbers blog update for those who might have missed it (and if you've already seen it, sorry for the redundancy):

Today marks the one-month anniversary of the birth of Danielle. At the 11AM EDT TWO on August 22nd, the season TC count stood at 3-1-0, and ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) was an anemic 9.095. Since then, we've gone an astounding 9-5-5, and have gathered an additional 117.34 ACE units. That's an average of one named storm every 3.45 days, a major hurricane every 6.2 days, and 3.78 ACE units per day.

Today is also the 31st day out of the last 32 with at least one active named system (September 5th is the only exception). In that span, there have been 20 days with more than one named storm going, and seven of those saw three named storms at once. In that same span have been six days with multiple hurricanes, including two with three hurricanes in action. We've also had, incredibly, multiple major hurricanes on two different days.

Named Tropical Cyclones by Date

ACE Distribution by Day
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Panic will set in now ,the most hyped storm in history that was a dud!!lol!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Not deep enough. Someone will get some much needed rainfall. Just hope it's the kind that falls vertically instead of horizontally!

What do you think?
I dont think it will be as deep as a late Oct/Nov one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm am getting a very ill feeling in my stomach what might be coming out of the Caribbean.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
67. HCW
12Z 95L runs from the NHC

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the help! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ooz ecwmf does nothing with storm,now takes it all the way into pacific ocean!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting butterflymcb:


I am confused...these models from orcasystems look nothing like the models I am seeing?

Are there two systems down there? Or is this a long range model?

Can someone help me understand this?


Thanks so much!


He is showing among others the GFS ensembles


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting butterflymcb:


I am confused...these models from orcasystems look nothing like the models I am seeing?

Are there two systems down there? Or is this a long range model?

Can someone help me understand this?


Thanks so much!


Many of those are long range models and it's hard to tell what models he has displayed. Looks like some of those could be parts of the GFS Ensemble?

This is a video tutorial on where you can find many of the different models and a basic on how to view the pages. Needs to be updated at some point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 111 - 61

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
30 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron