Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning nrti, good to see you. Thx!

Looks like the center is trying to pull itself together a little in the 70-72W and 12-14N area.



Mornin SJ, see post 150. I haven't seen any "realtime" data from any of the Global Hawk missions.
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Morning nrti, good to see you. Thx!

Looks like the center is trying to pull itself together a little in the 70-72W and 12-14N area.

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158. Jax82
wawawawednesday
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TropicalDepressionGeorgette's heading had turned northward to (8.1degrees north of) North NorthWest
from its previous heading of (5.8degrees north of) NorthNorthWest
TD.Georgette's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~16.7mph(~26.7km/h)

21Sep 03pmGMT - - 22.5n109.9w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #2
21Sep 06pmGMT - - 23.0n109.7w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #2A
21Sep 09pmGMT - - 23.3n109.9w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - NHC.Adv.#3
22Sep 12amGMT - - 24.0n110.0w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #3A
22Sep 03amGMT - - 24.6n110.3w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #4
22Sep 06amGMT - - 25.3n110.4w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #4A
22Sep 09amGMT - - 25.8n110.7w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #5
22Sep 12pmGMT - - 26.1n110.8w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #5A
22Sep 03pmGMT - - 26.8n111.0w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #6

Copy &paste 22.5n109.9w, 23.0n109.7w, 23.3n109.9w, 24.0n110.0w, 24.6n110.3w-25.3n110.4w, 25.3n110.4w-25.8n110.7w, 25.8n110.7w-26.1n110.8w, 26.1n110.8w-26.8n111.0w, gym into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.
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Quoting kshipre1:
this might sound stupid but after reading Dr. Master's wunderblog, I feel that Florida is much less at risk now; however, I am confused because it just seems that Florida really is at risk but if the trough is only strong enough to pull Matthew northward and north/northeastward, then who knows.

I know it is too early to say because the storm has not even formed yet and models change very often but he even said that the models are a little less clear about any potential impact to the US coast.

someone want to chime in here?



Way too far out. But, generally speaking Sept/Oct Florida is at it's greatest risk in any year.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting StormJunkie:


Bummer...Saving the gas it seems. Will we be able to find the Global Hawk data anywhere...Guessing we aren't going to be lucky enough to be able to watch it in Google Earth?


PREDICT has an area on their website for Global Hawk data, but I don't remember ever seeing any data there.
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After we get a plane in the area to more data then we can look to the models which should be later tonight....

Everyone will have a better idea then.....
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Bummer...Saving the gas it seems.


Not expecting development....IMO
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true but I thought the GFS and ECMWF models were in much better agreement of a strong trough coming down. If that is the case, wouldn't that cause the storm to start turning earlier?

I also heard that the trough will slowly come to the SE USA. The slower it comes, the further west Matthew goes?

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Quoting weatherguy03:


Its aliitle too early IMO to have a hard right turn with these systems. I would say a more gradual turn to the North if it happens. The GFS and Euro really dive that closed Low far Southward for this time of year. Alittle unusual for so early in the fall season. Thats why my confidence is still low in the extended.


Surely agree with you there, seems to early based on Climo. However, with a moderate to strong La Nina in full force things could be a little different than what is usually expected.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Repost
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Quoting scottsvb:
For everyone to know, we dont know if 95L is going to the GOM.. your talking over a week away. So much can happen to it and also so much can change in the midlevels of the atmosphere over north america to take whatever is down south N or W or even NE out to sea (thru Cuba).

Mets only go out to 5 days (at most) to ask about the GOM 7-8 days out is just a farmers alnamac. You might as well ask if it will snow in chicago on Thanksgiving.
I predict snowfall for Chicago at Thanksgiving.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
3. REMARKS:
A.AIR FORCE MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 22/18Z AND 23/06Z
AND 12Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 22/1245Z.

B.THE NOAA G-IV MAY FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
THE SAME AREA TOMORROW DEPARTING AT 23/1730Z AND
OPERATING 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
C.NASA'S GOLBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 26 HR MISSION INTO THIS
AREA DEPARTING 23/1500Z. OPERATING FL 580-650.


Bummer...Saving the gas it seems. Will we be able to find the Global Hawk data anywhere...Guessing we aren't going to be lucky enough to be able to watch it in Google Earth?
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138. srada
Quoting kshipre1:
this might sound stupid but after reading Dr. Master's wunderblog, I feel that Florida is much less at risk now; however, I am confused because it just seems that Florida really is at risk but if the trough is only strong enough to pull Matthew northward and north/northeastward, then who knows.

I know it is too early to say because the storm has not even formed yet and models change very often but he even said that the models are a little less clear about any potential impact to the US coast.

someone want to chime in here?


I took him at saying where this potential storm might head..not about development of the storm itself as far as potential impact to the US..GFS and ECWMF are predicting this storm as well as other models
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 22 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1245Z
D. 13.0N 74.0W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
24/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. REMARKS:
A.AIR FORCE MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 22/18Z AND 23/06Z
AND 12Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 22/1245Z.

B.THE NOAA G-IV MAY FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
THE SAME AREA TOMORROW DEPARTING AT 23/1730Z AND
OPERATING 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
C.NASA'S GOLBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 26 HR MISSION INTO THIS
AREA DEPARTING 23/1500Z. OPERATING FL 580-650.
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135. HCW
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
95L is supposed to be going through the Herbert box later this week


I will call Bobby and ask him where Mathew is going to go :)
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1406
Looks like the 12Z NAM loses 95L entirely? Yeah, I know the NAM is a primitive and not very reliable model, but usually comparing its latest run's track to the prior one gives a good indication of how the more sophisticated models will also shift.

Old 6Z NAM at 84 hours:


Latest 12Z NAM at 78 hours:
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JeffMasters, 9:21 AM EDT on September 22, 2010

Thanks Dr. M; huge flooding and mudslide threat for Mexico and Central America from this one....It would have to be a real monster trof working it's way all the way down from the US to CA to pick this one up.......It's a real long shot 7-8 days from now unless a storm can form and ramp up quickly by Friday before getting to Central America.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8770
95L is supposed to be going through the Herbert box later this week
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Quoting KanKunKid:


Bad enough POS (Pat over shoulder) but spewing Fresca? Is it original, peach or raspberry? I like the peach with just a touch of Tanquaray. Even though there's no sugar in Fresca, it'll still make your keys sticky when you spurt Fresca on them.
I hate sticky keys. I'm using a laptop with a touch pad. Have you ever tried using a touch pad with sticky fingers? It's like, like tap dancing with clown shoes on. I know we've all been there.


Wait... they make Peach Fresca?? Where do I find this stuff? I've never seen it in Canada...
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Quoting scottsvb:
For everyone to know, we dont know if 95L is going to the GOM.. your talking over a week away. So much can happen to it and also so much can change in the midlevels of the atmosphere over north america to take whatever is down south N or W or even NE out to sea (thru Cuba).

Mets only go out to 5 days (at most) to ask about the GOM 7-8 days out is just a farmers alnamac. You might as well ask if it will snow in chicago on Thanksgiving.
So you dont start forecasting more than 5 days out trying to get a feel for the future forecast that is inevitable?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6730
For everyone to know, we dont know if 95L is going to the GOM.. your talking over a week away. So much can happen to it and also so much can change in the midlevels of the atmosphere over north america to take whatever is down south N or W or even NE out to sea (thru Cuba).

Mets only go out to 5 days (at most) to ask about the GOM 7-8 days out is just a farmers alnamac. You might as well ask if it will snow in chicago on Thanksgiving.
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Quoting kshipre1:
this might sound stupid but after reading Dr. Master's wunderblog, I feel that Florida is much less at risk now; however, I am confused because it just seems that Florida really is at risk but if the trough is only strong enough to pull Matthew northward and north/northeastward, then who knows.

I know it is too early to say because the storm has not even formed yet and models change very often but he even said that the models are a little less clear about any potential impact to the US coast.

someone want to chime in here?


It's still at risk, but with it going near or over land and strength is unknown hard to tell what will be in the NW Caribbean in a couple of days.
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this might sound stupid but after reading Dr. Master's wunderblog, I feel that Florida is much less at risk now; however, I am confused because it just seems that Florida really is at risk but if the trough is only strong enough to pull Matthew northward and north/northeastward, then who knows.

I know it is too early to say because the storm has not even formed yet and models change very often but he even said that the models are a little less clear about any potential impact to the US coast.

someone want to chime in here?
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
My filter setting changed all by itself to "show average" and won't let me change it back to "show all". Anybody know whats up with that?


Change it back to show all and then reload the site. That happened to me a few times.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Good morning peeps,


This new area that may become Matthew has finally caught my attention, so here I am. The quicker this area intensifies the more chance it will have to affect the U.S. It is very far south but lets wait and see how it unfolds......
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it just changed back when i posted the last note. Weird.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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