Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Here's my prognoses...

If the model consensus on the trough not cutting-off is correct then Matthew will head toward south of central Florida and up(or off0 the East coast. Attaching itself unto the cold front and thus eventually becoming a nor'easter.

While that's happening, the front will sweep through Florida and stall from the kirks and cacos islands, through Cuba, to the Yucatan.

A low pressure then will acquire subtropical characteristics and become Nicole. It'll behave much like Andrea did in 2007.

But if the Outlier GFS is right(concerning the trough cutting-off) your guess is as good as mine.
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95L will probably be upgraded from tomorrow afternoons recon mission.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
went from today and tomorrow to next day or 2


Amazing comparison, lol



I have the real answer:
THERE BOTH TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS

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Quoting reedzone:


I know, just thought it was interesting. I feel a TD will form tomorrow.


Though it will be slow to develop into something bigger, so much energy, needs to consolidate.
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Complete Update

Lisa - is still following the NU Blog NFI Model

95L - The models are showing a decrease in intensity for a C America Hit... but also showing it as a Cat 3 Shooting the Cuba/Cancun gap.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


all they do is drop the possibility of development today, not really a big deal beyond that


I know, just thought it was interesting. I feel a TD will form tomorrow.
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went from today and tomorrow to next day or 2
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Quoting WxLogic:


There's definitely similarities... so just like Alex... Matt should take a little while to develop.


Yep!
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Quoting reedzone:
Hmm a change of attitude towards 95L form the NHC..

8:00 a.m.
1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

2:00 p.m.
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
DAYS.


Anyone find the difference in these TWOs?


all they do is drop the possibility of development today, not really a big deal beyond that
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Quoting HCW:


Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert


k
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Quoting reedzone:
Hmm a change of attitude towards 95L form the NHC..

8:00 a.m.
1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

2:00 p.m.
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
DAYS.


Anyone find the difference in these TWOs?


yes, about 6 hours.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


but it would have been relevant had some people agreed with you? So it is pointless because a few people challenged the information you showed?

In the end my last point is my most valid, we do not yet know how steering is going to set up, so to go looking back at history is kind of pointless right now. I will leave it at that
Yes, It is better to leave it alone!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6881
442. HCW
Quoting StormChaser81:


TCFA????


Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
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Hmm a change of attitude towards 95L form the NHC..

8:00 a.m.
1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

2:00 p.m.
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
DAYS.


Anyone find the difference in these TWOs?
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Quoting oceanblues32:
anyone know...

check top of screen for bold red, New Mail.
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Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







Intreasting setup you have going their Patrap
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The sun has a ring today here in Belize
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Quoting HCW:
TCFA issued



TCFA????
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Quoting reedzone:
95L looks like Pre-Alex, hands down!

93L June

Photobucket

95L


There's definitely similarities... so just like Alex... Matt should take a little while to develop.
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434. HCW
TCFA issued

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1920s:

1921 had the infamous Tampa Bay Hurricane which hit Florida as a Category Three in late October. Came up from the Caribbean, not far from Panama.

1926 did have the Miami Hurricane impacting the Gulf Coast as a major, but of course, it wasn't a 'homebrew'.

1929 Florida Hurricane may have just made landfall close to Miami-Dade County as a Category Three in late September. Did come in from the direction of the Bahamas.



1930s:

Hurricane Eighteen made landfall/direct hit in the Florida Keys in 1933 as a Category Three/Four in early October, coming in from the West Caribbean.

Okay, a couple of examples in the 1940s within the time period you have instructed:

1941 Florida Hurricane, aka Hurricane Five, was just about in the Gulf Coast along the Florida Keys hitting as a Category Three. This came from the east, however, in October. Formed not far from the Bahamas.

In 1948, two hurricanes within this time period made landfall as a major, one after the other. The first, Hurricane #7, made landfall as a Category Three in SW Florida in late September after coming in from the south Gulf of Mexico. Two weeks later, Hurricane #8, also known as the 1948 Miami Hurricane, made landfall/direct hit in the Florida Keys as a Category Three in October. Both within the Western Caribbean.

1949 Texas Hurricane, hitting in early October near Freeport as a Category Four. A very unusual track coming in from the East Pacific, so it may not be considered entirely homebrew, but it'd be difficult at that time to ascertain whether it was the same system or not.

I think that's sufficiently going back in time.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Google is your friend!!!!!!!!!!
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95L still at a 60% chance at 2PM EDT

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Quoting scott39:
Im starting to think this conversation is pointless.


but it would have been relevant had some people agreed with you? So it is pointless because a few people challenged the information you showed?

In the end my last point is my most valid, we do not yet know how steering is going to set up, so to go looking back at history is kind of pointless right now. I will leave it at that
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I do have to say it really has gotten slower over the past couple of days...now we are looking at only 2 storms possibly active at once with Lisa going to be dying soon leaves us with just this one...
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Quoting shawn26:
I say 80%
Still at 60%.
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(gotta admit, the blog has been flowing nicely the last week...for whatever reason!)

Great post on the RGB low level clouds. I am calling for straight to TS no number assigned here...my call is at 11pm tonight.
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What i noticed this year is the GFS does very well with sniffing out storms and fairly well with tracks out in the E Atlantic. It's when you have bundles of energy like a monsoon trough is where it's major issues are shown. The ECMWF is the model to look at in situations like this with 95L in the Caribbean. The GFS will straighten this out by the end of the weekend most likely.
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Hey Guys and Gals, I have been a long time lurker of this blog. I live in Virginia Beach but am headed to Cozumel next Monday, 09/27. I know this may seem like a rhetorical question to alot of you but should I reconsider my travel plans? Or to early to tell. Thanks again everybody and keep up the great work.
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95L looks like Pre-Alex, hands down!

93L June

Photobucket

95L
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, September 22nd, with Video
Levi Thank You Great Update All Im saying is South Florida keep a eye on this
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


If the forecast pattern is different than what climatology says it should be, then showing past storms in this time period is pointless.

Considering that we do not yet know all the variables that will steer this storm, showing something like you did is even more pointless

you are trying to give odds to something when we do not yet know how the variables are going to set up. That is like trying to predict a the Winner of Super Bowl 46, 2 days after Super Bowl 45
Im starting to think this conversation is pointless.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6881
Quoting BobinTampa:


was that stalling it and then trying to bring it north in the BOC?


Actually, not bringing it into BOC (at least not fully) but actually starting to move N/NE. If you look at the 850MB VORT you see that is actually "stealing" some energy from the Pacific side as it attempts to organize and then attempts to head N/NE towards the weakness over the FL Panhandle.

On the long range version comes out GGEM then we'll actually see where it might be trying to take it. For now it looks like is stuck in Central America.
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At this point in the month(if 96L gets into the gulf), hurricanes usually go into the Yucatan or take a route anywhere from New Orleans, La. to Miami, Fla. I give the storm a 96% chance of becoming a depression by Thursday. I would think that residents of Panama City would be the ones watching this storm a lot since it is late September. Also, the lower 48 seems likely to get a storm from the Caribbean in this active season
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Did someone say monsoonal development.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


SJ, you asked for news about ants. You have mail.


Thanks PSL, saw it. Keep me posted.

The GFS has continued to hint at the idea that as 95 travels N, it could loop back at some point around 30-35N. If it even takes the up the seaboard route. Or if it survives it's land interaction.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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