Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Quoting bird72:


Really?


Look at visible... shearing of her convection.

Link
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Blog,

At the moment, there is but one way of knowing with any certainty where 95L may ultimately track.

However, the REED Model Super Computer is currently malfunctioning. Presumably will not open MS Paint correctly.

While the blog awaits resolution on this matter, might I suggest viewing a few Wilma loops.

Dewey needs the money. Cashews are expensive.


LOL, the REED model does not want to be looked at as a wishcast. The storm has not formed so no REED run yet ;)
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Quoting help4u:
Looks like any worries about 95l is over,models show it breaking into low pressure areas.Nothing tropical from this bunch of clouds.


For the first time I agree with you, 95l just poof.
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Quoting Seastep:


Julia


Really?
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Quoting srada:




Now the ECWMF also has it out for NC..looks like nasty weather may be in stored..


Hopefully VA will get some rain out of that. We are drought stricken.
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603. IKE
Quoting xcool:
12Z EURO shows no tropical


I see what you mean...it seems to have 95L absorbed in the eastern USA trough that's coming in.
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Quoting bird72:



Somebody knows, what's that above Lisa, that looks like a firework rocket?Link


Julia
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Quoting SouthDadeNative:
Good afternoon to all. New to the chat room but have enjoyed the site for some time.

I hope the FL. west coast remembers the lessons from Charlie and concentrates on any future cones and not a pinpoint on the map


Good afternoon to you as well...
FYI
Charley, not Charlie
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598. srada
Quoting IKE:
192 hour 12Z ECMWF...



216 hour...



Quoting IKE:
192 hour 12Z ECMWF...



216 hour...



Now the ECWMF also has it out for NC..looks like nasty weather may be in stored..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest model runs look like they've shifted west a bit but more importantly more of them are turning it northward at the end of the 5 day run.
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I wish the N name storm could have been Notta or Noway,lol geez I need a job.
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Looks like any worries about 95l is over,models show it breaking into low pressure areas.Nothing tropical from this bunch of clouds.
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What's 1002 mb? A weak TS, or a TD, or just a low?
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95L is hauling. It needs to slow down. Anti-cyclone is almost over it though.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting IKE:
192 hour 12Z ECMWF...



216 hour...



There are a couple areas of low pressure off the VA/NC coastline.
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591. IKE
Day 7 on the HPC....

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12Z ECMWF Pretty weak.
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Too much emphasis on long range forecasts (and we don't even have an official forecast, yet, therefore making long range predictions even more unfound). Lot's of inexperience apparent.
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586. IKE
240 hours on the 12Z ECMWF...

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Latest surface circulation for 95L :

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=AL952010
&product_filename=
2010AL95_MPSATWND_201009221800
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584. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (T1012)
3:00 AM JST September 23 2010
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Malakas (985 hPa) located at 19.6N 141.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
230 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.7N 140.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 29.1N 142.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 37.9N 147.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45206
Quoting TampaTom:


No Matthew yet...


I put a question mark beside matthew because we may see him named within a day or 2
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Post 570.......what's the origin of that forecast? Always a good idea to include the headers with those official things.
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579. xcool
12Z EURO shows no tropical
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
I have listed most of the 12Z global runs in my comments section with some of my thoughts...Link
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Good afternoon to all. New to the chat room but have enjoyed the site for some time.

I hope the FL. west coast remembers the lessons from Charlie and concentrates on any future cones and not a pinpoint on the map
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576. IKE
192 hour 12Z ECMWF...



216 hour...

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575. JLPR2
We got an interesting week ahead, that's for sure.
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Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


Ahhhh...that was the 18z run from last night.

The latest run (12z today) shifts it E, skirting the FL east coast, then up the Atlantic Seaboard to NC/VA, then transitions it to a strong early Oct. nor'easter up the coast.

It also shows something quite interesting: it seems that Matthew may just hit Belize/Yucatan and fade away....but not before passing all its energy over to the second system that forms out on the central Caribbean (Nicole???); and it's that SECOND system that blows up into a major and whacks Cuba, the FL Straits, and Miami/Keys en route to the ATL coast.

Maybe that's what all the confusion with the GFS is about...one system throwing a "forward pass", if you will, to another.

So that truck that runs over FL may yet be a she rather than a he.

Weather systems sure are strange creatures.


Anthony


Very insightful...thanks!
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If 95L's pressure drops, it will get stronger.
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I see some of the Night Shift survived....

;)
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I say we'll have a TD NLT tomorrow, it already looks like one.
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570. xcool
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FEATURES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONING
TYPHOON MALAKAS HELPING TO DEEPEN TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO AMPLIFIED TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM
NEAR 140W...BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN...AND
DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 UNITED
STATES. DAY-TO-DAY AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
FLEETING...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SHOWN THE
BEST CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. PROBLEMS LIE WITH HOW
MUCH ENERGY DIVES OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY SUNDAY...AND
WHETHER OR NOT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEARING THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LURE THE SYSTEM MORE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE
CONVERGED... SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL VARY QUITE A BIT CONSIDERING
THE MOST RECENT 90 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

DOWN SOUTH...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN /INVEST
95L/ TO THE NORTH ACROSS EITHER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN
CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS BY FAR THE
STRONGEST/LARGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WAS DISCOUNTED.
CONSIDERING THE TRENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HEADED NORTH TO NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST/FLORIDA IN 7-10 DAYS. THE DETAILS WILL BE COORDINATED WITH
NHC AT 16Z. STAY TUNED.


hpc
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648



Somebody knows, what's that above Lisa, that looks like a firework rocket?Link
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568. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


Ahhhh...that was the 18z run from last night.

The latest run (12z today) shifts it E, skirting the FL east coast, then up the Atlantic Seaboard to NC/VA, then transitions it to a strong early Oct. nor'easter up the coast.

It also shows something quite interesting: it seems that Matthew may just hit Belize/Yucatan and fade away....but not before passing all its energy over to the second system that forms out on the central Caribbean (Nicole???); and it's that SECOND system that blows up into a major and whacks Cuba, the FL Straits, and Miami/Keys en route to the ATL coast.

Maybe that's what all the confusion with the GFS is about...one system throwing a "forward pass", if you will, to another.

So that truck that runs over FL may yet be a she rather than a he.

Weather systems sure are strange creatures.


Anthony



Over the last day or two, GFS has shown 95L (Matthew) killing and ingesting Nichole. Today the opposite happens. But there are some interesting possibilities. The death of Matthew only seems to happen because it makes landfall on the Yucatan again shortly after emerging into the BOC. If it doesn't get dragged off to the south so quickly, that situation could evolve differently.
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EURO has a broad area of Low Pressure east of Florida in 192 hours, good news.
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Quoting weatherboyfsu:
I chased Hurricane Opal and Hurricane Wilma and can tell you that was no comparison. Hurricane Wilma a much more stronger storm overall.

Wilma was huge and powerful and luckily for all of South FL, she sped up and ran out of water. As it was she managed to hit solid Cat 3 again before her 2nd landfall. We were in South Fort Myers then and I remember the beginning of the storm, until the COC passed about 50 miles to our South, happened in the evening and into the pre-dawn hours and we were experiencing solid TS conditions until 1am when the stronger coniditions started filling the skies with transformer flashes. What a site! Then when daybreak came all hell broke loose. Easily 100mph gusts and the whole time she was colliding right overtop of us with a cold front. The ground was constantly rumbling as if tornadoes were on the ground all around us. It was seriously intense! What a rush...then afterward, the complete opposite of Charley, it was COLD! Lows in the 50s...thankfully...we were without power for 8 days and the generator didn't have to run a portable AC unit in addition to all the other goodies...memories...
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California is definitely not in 95L's path.
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Quoting oracle28:
95L will not reach sustained winds of 200 mph


The Cat 5 casters are at it today! LOL
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Quoting hydrus:
The GFS has 95L going to Tampa....Naturally It is way out, but the slow movement is interesting..Link


Ahhhh...that was the 18z run from last night.

The latest run (12z today) shifts it E, skirting the FL east coast, then up the Atlantic Seaboard to NC/VA, then transitions it to a strong early Oct. nor'easter up the coast.

It also shows something quite interesting: it seems that Matthew may just hit Belize/Yucatan and fade away....but not before passing all its energy over to the second system that forms out on the central Caribbean (Nicole???); and it's that SECOND system that blows up into a major and whacks Cuba, the FL Straits, and Miami/Keys en route to the ATL coast.

Maybe that's what all the confusion with the GFS is about...one system throwing a "forward pass", if you will, to another.

So that truck that runs over FL may yet be a she rather than a he.

Weather systems sure are strange creatures.


Anthony

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Quoting tropicfreak:
Names so far.

Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew?


No Matthew yet...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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