Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Quoting Thaale:
GFS ensembles trending S and W.




These don't come with intensity avaialble, do they? I'd be interested to know if the FL scenarios keep it weak like in the ECMWF.


Yes they do, in text format. Since it is a global model (and a lower resolution one at that) don't know how much to put into their intensity. Available here labled AP01, AP02.... Intensity is after longitude.
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It seems like this year the GFS has overdone the strength of the troughs resulting in a bias to the right where the Euro model has been the opposite with a left bias. This is apparent in the 12z runs today which the GFS shows 95L going up the east coast which I personally think is too far right. The 12z of the Euro shows 95l going west and dissipating over Central America. We will just have to wait and see until a LLC develops and the models converge. Until then I would go somewhere between these two outlier models.
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Even funnier is that most level-level headed people will show all potential possibilities when making a forecast, just like Reed did.

Most who call people wish-casters obviously think a forecast is nothing more than 1 guess on what will happen; and God forbid that guess has anything to do with land or going west. Forecasts are much more complicated then that.
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I think all the models are out to lunch having trouble with bundling all that energy. The models should latch on better once it develops a LLC. I wouldn't write it off yet. You can see more turning now on visible loop and it's getting better organized. Going to take a while like Alex.
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T.C.F.A.
INV95/XX/XL
MARK
13.30N/71.03W
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Quoting jonelu:
Arent the Hurricane Hunter checking it out and bringing information back that will help the models get a better lock?


They canceled it. Maybe tomorrow. There is a research plane out there, though, I think. Assume they will use some of that.
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Quoting reedzone:
Well here's my thoughts on the Invest right now, based on the steering and models...

"I don’t really have a detailed forecast, heck there is no center yet. I think the models will lock on when “Matthew” forms. I have a good feeling this will effect Florida either as a remnant low, or a Hurricane. If it stays in Central America, the moisture is likely to lift north, maybe redevelop, or not. However, the GFS and EURO show the storm staying away from CA and catching the trough, heading towards Florida. It’s a complex situation.. Oh and don’t scream out out to sea if it misses Florida because the high in the Atlantic, the high we were supposed to have earlier this season is dominant and should keep 95Luclose to the coastline. That is my current thinking on the invest, soon to be “Matthew”. I don’t believe it will turn out to sea after hitting or missing Florida, if it even does that. I do have the feeling 95L stays in the Western Caribbean and forms into a dangerous and respectable Hurricane, then heads north. These waters have not been touched since Alex earlier this season, I believe a Major Hurricane may come out of this if it can manage to stay in the Caribbean."
......you do realize this is your storm,matt????,,lol
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Quoting JLPR2:

That would be interesting, we haven't had one of those this year.



nop not yet
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Those Arent Models...


Their Past Tracks...

No, that is the GFS Ensemble. 14 different model runs of the same program, using slightly varied initial inputs.
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695. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



if Julia dos make a come back it will may be a STS

That would be interesting, we haven't had one of those this year.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
691. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok find be that way

look what we have

Link


Look at that, TD15 in the making.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
665. IKE

I don't know about you Ike but I'm watching this one closely. Its a long way out but the panhandle could be at risk and we're overdue.
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Quoting reedzone:
Just CANNOT make a forecast without being attacked, morons! Stop being immature and go do your homework from school!


just ignore them so they don't keep attacking you.. they obviously just want you to complain for entertainment
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Quoting Tazmanian:
ok find be that way

look what we have

Link


Yep, maybe a TD tomorrow sometime, it's possible.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Interesting high level cloud feature east of the leewards on the vis loop it doesnt move and is not sunglare????
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Vorticity is starting to really blow up on soon to be Matthew.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Ex Julia



if Julia dos make a come back it will may be a STS
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ok find be that way

look what we have

Link
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678. JLPR2
Ex Julia
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Cracks me up that some people have the nerve to say that just because a forecast from someone on here impacts land, that it is a wishcast

seriously it is getting very very old


My thoughts exactly...if people would only "ignore" them!
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Arent the Hurricane Hunter checking it out and bringing information back that will help the models get a better lock?
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 884
Cracks me up that some people have the nerve to say that just because a forecast from someone on here impacts land, that it is a wishcast

Those who mock and call people out for their opinions are the same ones that do not have enough knowledge to formulate their own.

seriously it is getting very very old
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665. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


As per the latest ATCF update:

AL, 95, 2010092218, , BEST, 0, 126N, 713W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 160, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


At the rate it's moving it will be approaching 80W by tomorrow evening.
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Quoting sporteguy03:
Nicaragua geography 101; the country is not very rugged along the coast:
The eastern Caribbean lowlands of Nicaragua form the extensive (occupying more than 50 percent of national territory) and still sparsely settled lowland area known as Costa de Mosquitos. The Caribbean lowlands are sometimes considered synonymous with the former department of Zelaya, which is now divided into the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (Región Autonomista Atlántico Norte) and the South Atlantic Autonomous Region (Región Autonomista Atlántico Sur) and constitutes about 45 percent of Nicaragua's territory. These lowlands are a hot, humid area that includes coastal plains, the eastern spurs of the central highlands, and the lower portion of the Río San Juan basin.
Link


sounds like my backyard which would be the Everglades
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 884
662. JLPR2
got to post an image of Lisa since I think she isnt getting any love. XD


I wonder if Julia will come down and try for a second time?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
If and when this storm forms, which it looks like it will, I believe it has two choices. It can either run right into Central America and die out or it can eventually turn north into the direction of Florida.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.