Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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I'd like to temporarily interrupt the ongoing spitball fight our most immature members are engaged in to repost this tropical weather-related bit from today's By The Numbers blog for those who might have missed it (and if you've already seen it, sorry for the redundancy):

Today marks the one-month anniversary of the birth of Danielle. At the 11AM EDT TWO on August 22nd, the season TC count stood at 3-1-0, and ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) was an anemic 9.095. Since then, we've gone an astounding 9-5-5, and have gathered an additional 117.34 ACE units. That's an average of one named storm every 3.45 days, a major hurricane every 6.2 days, and 3.78 ACE units per day.

Today is also the 31st day out of the last 32 with at least one active system (September 5th is the only exception). In that span, there have been 20 days with more than one storm going, and seven of those saw three active storms. In that same span have been six days with multiple hurricanes, including two with three hurricanes in action. We've also had, incredibly, multiple major hurricanes on two different days.

Named Tropical Cyclones by Date

ACE Distribution by Day
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
95L One more night of wax and wane!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting melwerle:
Hey Scott and Reed - you both sound like a bunch of 5 year olds. Could you BOTH knock off the personal insults and stick to the WEATHER. People are trying to get information and LEARN.

Geezzz...I feel like I'm in my math class. Attention, attention, attention and b/s name calling. GROW UP and talk WEATHER.

Yeah!!
What Mel said.

Hi Mel. It's rather quarrelsome here today...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Wish the world could leave politics out of science. PREDICT research flight yesterday could not go to all of the areas they would have liked to.

Link

Excerpt:

Today was our second flight (RF21) into PGI46.
Unfortunately, we were unable to fly within near the sweet spot
because of FIR restrictions with Venezula airspace

(Their mis-spelling not mine)
I hope their reserch is beter than their speling.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5689
PREDICT Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

Dropsonde data from today's G-V mission, however, indicate the presence of a developing circulation in the 700-850 hPa layer with a well-defined co-moving pouch present near 13 N, 70.5 W (not shown). This is confirmed by visible satellite and Curacao radar
loops over the morning and early afternoon hours (not shown).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm Junkie "Sloppy and hard to tell much from it...Maybe something going on around 14N 72W?"

Yes!! I see the same thing, it will be interesting if its just one of many smaller vortices in the area. Tonight will tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILwthrfan:
70W 13N Look at the RGB, I am only one that see's this? It looks like some sort circulation is pulled northward just to the west of 70W? Same area as the what the Vortice maps show?

Link

RGB loop NOAA


As said in my previous post, 95L has not developed a surface circulation, yet. This is backed by numerous outflow boundaries seen on visible satellite imagery.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


Not all the time, Bonnie never became a strong TS as I predicted, Colin never reached 70W as I predicted. I have and will continue to make mistakes as I am only 21 years old.


everybody makes mistakes
everybody has does days
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
70W 13N Look at the RGB, I am only one that see's this? It looks like some sort circulation is pulled northward just to the west of 70W? Same area as the what the Vortice maps show?

Link

RGB loop NOAA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
actually reed knows what he is talking about and he is correct


Not all the time, Bonnie never became a strong TS as I predicted, Colin never reached 70W as I predicted. I have and will continue to make mistakes as I am only 21 years old.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at visible satellite imagery this afternoon 95L remains a disorganized broad area of low pressure. Numerous outflow boundaries are noted indicating that 95L has not yet developed a circulation at the surface.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sloppy and hard to tell much from it...Maybe something going on around 14N 72W?



Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Caribbean Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

IF THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE PERSISTS AS THE MODELS SUGGEST...ITCZ CONVERGENCE WILL MIGRATE FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BASIN...WITH ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL PRESENT A SERIOUS CHALLENGE TO JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WHERE INITIALLY WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-50MM. THROUGH DAY 04-05 CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


95L looks like 93L in June (Alex)

Photobucket


It almost looks as if hes still got a long west to east broad weak circulation, is it possible that he could try to form a center near 70W, or is that ULL to his north going to prevent that from happening?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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