Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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2690. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:51 AM EDT on September 23, 2010

I apologize for the error below (and the folks in Texas) affected by some of the earlier storms in the season..........:)
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the clouds in the western carib. seem to be trying to organize alittle bit
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Lol Look at that CAT 5


That would be where the OMG came from :)
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wow big change in the models. it looks as though 95l will turn south before entering the gulf. sigh of relief. i really don't think it would turn out to be much anyway. is that a ull just to the n and e of 95l? or is that just a burst of dry air moving through?
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Quoting CJ5:
95L doesn't look anymore organized this am. If it doesn't get some decent structure soon, I would not expect it to have any impact on the gulf coast.


A lot of warm water between it and the Gulf Coast. But, it has to survive a tour of the CA coast first.

Hopefully, HWRF is out to lunch. ;-)
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Complete Update

Lisa - Same same... Nada.

95L - OMG!!



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting whs2012:
It is so shocking that we have not had 1 US landfall this entire hurricane season. Good, but shocking...


Bonnie made landfall as a TS

Hermine came really close...
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2700. HCW
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2698. hydrus
Quoting brainpimp:


That HWRF model is disconcerting.
Why is it disconcerting? Please BrainPimp, Thrill the blog with your acumen and pimp-NESS.
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Quoting hydrus:
From the trough that is going to pull Mathew northward. According to some of the mets. This is a deep one.


I wonder how the storm will rect to that.
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I said earlier that iwas thinking that we'd have a td at 5pm,I believe we have one now and when hh confirm a closed surface low ,all parameters. Should be met fir classification. Imo
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Y'all have a good morning...Off to class to crunch some numbers.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
2693. CJ5
95L doesn't look anymore organized this am. If it doesn't get some decent structure soon, I would not expect it to have any impact on the gulf coast.
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2691. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
Shear forecast for 144 hours from the 6Z GFS. Strong shear over the northern GOM....

From the trough that is going to pull Mathew northward. According to some of the mets. This is a deep one.
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Alex - HIT

Bonnie - HIT

Colin - MISS

Danielle - MISS

Earl - HIT

Fiona - DIED

Gaston - DIED

Hermine - HIT

Igor - HIT

JULIA - MISS

Karl - HIT

Lisa - MISS
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Morning Folks......Not too much to add to the current discussion except to say that it is a big watch and wait on 95L. Timing of trofs still several days away, rapid development or slower development in the short-term, and general movement towards the west at the moment. CONUS has been very lucky so far, with 12 named storms to date and only a "swipe" from Earl on the US.......The season is not a bust by any means if this storm does not make it to the US but if it should rapidly develop under very favorable conditions on the way towards Central America, it could be a real life-threatening situation for them.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
LOL!


We've not had a whole day without a storm since August 22. Over a month now!
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Quoting IKE:
Latest GFDL on 95L...Link


HWRF...Link


Compared to last runs looks more south and prone to dying in Central America.
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Quoting IKE:
Latest GFDL on 95L...Link


HWRF...Link


That HWRF model is disconcerting.
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2685. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
561

WHXX01 KWBC 231206

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1206 UTC THU SEP 23 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100923 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100923 1200 100924 0000 100924 1200 100925 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 74.8W 14.2N 77.1W 14.7N 79.5W 15.5N 82.0W

BAMD 13.5N 74.8W 13.7N 77.3W 13.9N 79.9W 14.3N 82.4W

BAMM 13.5N 74.8W 13.9N 77.1W 14.3N 79.7W 14.9N 82.2W

LBAR 13.5N 74.8W 14.0N 77.8W 14.7N 80.9W 15.4N 84.0W

SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 53KTS

DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 53KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100925 1200 100926 1200 100927 1200 100928 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.1N 84.6W 17.7N 88.9W 18.8N 91.9W 17.9N 93.9W

BAMD 14.9N 84.7W 16.3N 88.0W 17.7N 90.0W 17.7N 91.5W

BAMM 15.6N 84.6W 17.2N 88.6W 18.4N 91.4W 17.7N 93.3W

LBAR 16.2N 87.0W 18.6N 91.7W 20.8N 93.9W 15.4N 93.4W

SHIP 65KTS 86KTS 100KTS 103KTS

DSHP 65KTS 86KTS 39KTS 28KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 74.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 72.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 69.1W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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2684. scott39
At least none of the models are showing a monster Hurricane going into the GOM anymore. Hopefully it will stay that way!
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2682. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon on their way... Google Earth link


Almost there...
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Come on Lisa!

Don't die until TD #15/Matthew forms

Our streak will continue then!
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the character ike was right about the speed of the system this morning a few of the characters including mind though it stalled. we were watching clouds. averaged cmc looks like it could be the worse case by not making landfall
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We're up to 127 in ACE.

2008's total was 144.4.

We'll beat that...
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Quoting Chicklit:

I hope that doesn't happen Belize.
Honduras has protected us many times already and probably will protect us again
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Recon on their way... Google Earth link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
2674. IKE
Latest GFDL on 95L...Link


HWRF...Link
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2673. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Huh? No.
LOL Oh ok, Ive made a few comments to you and havent gotten a response. I knew you didnt really have me on ignore. I just wanted to get your attention. LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6887
2672. Thaale
Quoting scott39:
Those bamm models are taking a nose dive.


The Euro isn't ever on the Wunderground or SFWMD spaghetti charts, is it? Anyway, it has 95L plowing stright into the Pacific, too. If it were pictured, it would look like the XTRAP.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Wouldn't a weaker storm get lifted easier?
...other way around,think of magnets; the weaker low w/be drawn towards the stronger one....
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
This graphic includes the OFCI (white) track




That's not going to weaken it then...

Alex went all the way across and came out on the other side as a TS! That area isn't that mountainous.
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2669. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Looks like Ive made Ikes ignore list for some reason??? LOL


Huh? No.
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2668. scott39
Looks like Ive made Ikes ignore list for some reason??? LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6887
2667. IKE
Shear forecast for 144 hours from the 6Z GFS. Strong shear over the northern GOM....

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
00Z CMC ensemble clears things up... :-)

BR

The jellyfish model!
see y'all later.
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2665. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
00Z CMC ensemble clears things up... :-)




Hey... the always dependable CMC.
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Quoting belizeit:
The computer models have found my house . If this pans out Belize will be in big trouble as harvest time is just here and the rice and corn crops would suffer big losses

I hope that doesn't happen Belize.
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2663. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yep...that's my thinking


Could be a real flooding problem for some.
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00Z CMC ensemble clears things up... :-)


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
2661. scott39
Hey Ike!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6887

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.