Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

Share this Blog
7
+

Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1011 - 961

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

1009. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CypressJim08:
I noticed in the Dr's blog today he mentioned that the HH were flying into 95L today. Any word on what if anything that the found?


098

NOUS42 KNHC 221500

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT WED 22 SEPTEMBER 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010

TCPOD NUMBER.....10-114



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72

A. 23/1500Z

B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST

C. 23/1245Z

D. 13.0N 74.0W

E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z

F. SFC TO 10,000FT



2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT

24/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.



3. REMARKS:

A.AIR FORCE MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 22/18Z AND 23/06Z

AND 12Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 22/1245Z.

B.THE NOAA G-IV MAY FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION INTO

THE SAME AREA TOMORROW DEPARTING AT 23/1730Z AND

OPERATING 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

C.NASA'S GOLBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 26 HR MISSION INTO THIS

AREA DEPARTING 23/1500Z. OPERATING FL 580-650.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

JWP


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 187 Comments: 57932
1007. xcool
.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS LIKELY TO
FORM IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THE LONGER TERM PATTERN AND THE ECMWF MODEL FAVOR A
LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING
NEAR WESTERN CUBA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SHOULD REMAIN PROTECTED FROM ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY.

DRIER/LESS HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN TODAY WHICH IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST OUTLIER WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND TOO
SLOW PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. 22/TD
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15705
TropicalDepressionGeorgette has made landfall ~13miles(~21kilometres) westnorthwest of Guayamas,Sonora,Mexico

21Sep 09pmGMT - - 23.3n109.9w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - #3
22Sep 12amGMT - - 24.0n110.0w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #3A
22Sep 03amGMT - - 24.6n110.3w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #4
22Sep 06amGMT - - 25.3n110.4w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - NHC.Adv.#4A
22Sep 09amGMT - - 25.8n110.7w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #5
22Sep 12pmGMT - - 26.1n110.8w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #5A
22Sep 03pmGMT - - 26.8n111.0w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #6
22Sep 06pmGMT - - 27.6n111.3w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #6A
22Sep 09pmGMT - - 28.0n111.1w - - 35mph - - 1002mb - - #7

Copy &paste 23.3n109.9w, 24.0n110.0w, 24.6n110.3w, 25.3n110.4w, 25.8n110.7w-26.1n110.8w, 26.1n110.8w-26.8n111.0w, 26.8n111.0w-27.6n111.3w, 27.6n111.3w-28.0n111.1w, gym into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1005. will40
Quoting CypressJim08:
I noticed in the Dr's blog today he mentioned that the HH were flying into 95L today. Any word on what if anything that the found?


I think they canceled
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
Hey SJ that was the best description of how that spaghetti plot is derived thank you for the explanation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:


Dr Masters explained the GFS Ensemble runs on Hurricane Haven (his radio show) yesterday. I'll do my best to paraphrase. The standard GFS model (or operational model) uses the exact data points to develop a global forecast. Apparently the Ensemble runs are ones that have that same data "tweeked" in various ways. So they are all different scenarios of what could happen if some minor things were not predicted accurately on the operational model.

That's my understanding at least?


Yes, the ensemble is a "cluster" of forecasts that gives a picture of how the "operative" forecast would be affected if a number of the factors that go into determining track path were individually moved one way or the other by a bit.

In general, the tighter the cluster (ensemble), the more attention you should pay to the model ... because it steers the storm the same way even when things are moved around a bit on model initialization. A wide spread in the ensemble members suggests that too many things that make a difference in the path of the storm are sensitive to minor errors ... so the primary forecast of that model (e.g. GFS) is subject to considerable uncertainty.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1000. Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I noticed in the Dr's blog today he mentioned that the HH were flying into 95L today. Any word on what if anything that the found?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

95L- 12.6N

71.3W

1008mb TropicalAtlantic.com
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6914
Quoting sammywammybamy:


No. We Dont know if it is closed or not. We are just saying we found the center of the broad or closed low.


Still broad at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Anyone wanna confirm my find?


no not really well not yet atleast maybe at 8pm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The thanks applies to everyone else who responded...at the point I initially posted my response, I only saw Storm's post. The blog (for the most part) gets nothing but respect from the rookies....well, this one
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:


Dr Masters explained the GFS Ensemble runs on Hurricane Haven (his radio show) yesterday. I'll do my best to paraphrase. The standard GFS model (or operational model) uses the exact data points to develop a global forecast. Apparently the Ensemble runs are ones that have that same data "tweeked" in various ways. So they are all different scenarios of what could happen if some minor things were not predicted accurately on the operational model.

That's my understanding at least?


That is pretty much the way I understood it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon....Trying to make a "safe" comment here.....Entire Caribbean lit up like a Christmas Tree right about now; gonna get interesting over the next 48 hours...End quote...... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Confirmed


So you are in effect calling this a TD now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:
I Found the COC

Middle of red circle



I have it around 71.7W and 13.2N
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks StormJunkie, so they're more designed as "If this ridge moves this way, then.... or if this TROF develops here, then...." Gotcha. Thanks again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:


Dr Masters explained the GFS Ensemble runs on Hurricane Haven (his radio show) yesterday. I'll do my best to paraphrase. The standard GFS model (or operational model) uses the exact data points to develop a global forecast. Apparently the Ensemble runs are ones that have that same data "tweeked" in various ways. So they are all different scenarios of what could happen if some minor things were not predicted accurately on the operational model.

That's my understanding at least?
yep! you got it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
new surface map (18Z)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Anyone wanna confirm my find?


Plausible...but I'm not going with confirmed. I think it could be a little E of that...And maybe a little south too. It's still real sloppy and hard to tell though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCSaint:
Can someone offer a true rookie some insight on the GFS models, please? By titles, one would think they are based on GMT time cycles, but noticeably each has different track, pressure and vorticity models for, as an example 95L. So my question is, what differentiates each of the model sets? What's the primary difference between each?
The GFS is a model suite that is basically the "pride and joy" of the NWS. The main model is the "operational" model. The ensemble members are similar, but each member of the ensemble has one slight initial datapoint slightly modified. The exact datapoint modified will vary, but could be location, temperature, wind speed, or any host of other items. The ensemble members are used partially to determine the consistency of a track, and also to show some possibilities if something was off in the operational model's solution.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCSaint:
Can someone offer a true rookie some insight on the GFS models, please? By titles, one would think they are based on GMT time cycles, but noticeably each has different track, pressure and vorticity models for, as an example 95L. So my question is, what differentiates each of the model sets? What's the primary difference between each?


Dr Masters explained the GFS Ensemble runs on Hurricane Haven (his radio show) yesterday. I'll do my best to paraphrase. The standard GFS model (or operational model) uses the exact data points to develop a global forecast. Apparently the Ensemble runs are ones that have that same data "tweeked" in various ways. So they are all different scenarios of what could happen if some minor things were not predicted accurately on the operational model.

That's my understanding at least?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A couple of folks have commented on the similarities between 93L (Alex) and 95L. I'm not yet familiar enough with the site to manipulate archives...could someone post side by side images that articulates those similarities?

Thanks!
EcoLogic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOCAL MET SAID THAT THERE COULD BE MUTIPLE STORMS IN CARRIBEAN NEXT WEEK
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 578
Can someone offer a true rookie some insight on the GFS models, please? By titles, one would think they are based on GMT time cycles, but noticeably each has different track, pressure and vorticity models for, as an example 95L. So my question is, what differentiates each of the model sets? What's the primary difference between each?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will40:
943. scott39 4:46 PM EDT on September 22, 2010

i agree but this is the way a quote should be done
I guess during mania hour or 2hours ect..., you ignore the bloggers who wont quit quoting the people who need help. You can always go back and take them off ignore.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6914
All NOAA Floater Imagery
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Pat! Good to see ya on...Haven't seen you on as much lately, or maybe I've just been oblivious. LOL.


Been a Busy Dude as of late..so I havent been round much.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
12z Latest GFS Ensemble Member Tracks
Invest95
GFS Ensemble Members






Pat! Good to see ya on...Haven't seen you on as much lately, or maybe I've just been oblivious. LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L

Rainbow



RGB

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1011 - 961

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley