Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Afternoon all,

Wow, Lisa continues to drift eastward, almost like it wants to move eastward back into the Cape Verde Islands. Does anyone know of another storm in recorded history that has meandered close to the Cape Verde Islands like Lisa has?

95L to me looked better yesterday than it does now. This sort of reminds of me 92L, which became Karl. Both 92L and now 95L are taking long to organize despite really favorable conditions (low shear, good outflow, above-average SSTs). Why?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1110. Grothar
Quoting oceanblues32:
so i am located in southeast florida should i have concerns over 95L


Yes
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25335
18z GFS @ 42hrs 850mb vorticity...

Still has it fairly unorganized in 36hrs.



Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
test is this being seen

Yep, clearly, BTW Keep, How are you doing?
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1105. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
test is this being seen


No
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25335
There is a blob just sw of Jamaica, looks like it may pump some moisture up north ahead of 95l. Almost looks like it wants to organize somewhat. Reminds a little bit of that GFS scenario from a couple of days ago.
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1102. jonelu
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
test is this being seen

yes
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1100. tkeith
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
test is this being seen
yes...
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ATCF 95L.INVEST
maybe oceanblues32 but not now it may not affect you at all well maybe some rain but anyway that is long long ways away
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Hot of the Press NEW :

SWB Risk Analysis Graphic:

I agree with your graph from last night more, but you're right as to where it will finally end up I think.
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1096. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
test is this being seen
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say the COC could be near 13.5N 69.5W (this is just a guess)

I have it basically the same at 13.5N/70W, I agree with Sammywammy graph,I think it track basically the sam,e but more on 45 degree angle instead of 90, basically WNW , with a less pronounce turned through the yucatan but through the yucatan nevertheless, JMO of course.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9693
yeah stormpet they kill the mission for today
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Quoting breald:
About this whole quote thing. How the heck are we suppose to know who has who on ignore so not to quote them?

I don't have anyone on my ignore list and think it is silly to poof people you don't want to read and expect others to know this.


Try filtering to "average" for a while. Anyone whose posts *consistently* fail to clear this hurdle is posting content that is either nonsense or has a high "noise to weather talk" ratio ... and is highly likely to be on a number of ignore lists. So think before you quote a grayed-out post (if you bother to read it) on Average. Think long and hard about replying to posts that don't make it past a "Below Average" setting.

You can learn a lot about posters by playing around with filtering at various levels - it's up to you how much you want to read. If *all* you want is weather, filter to "Show Good." If you want everything, use "Show All" ... but you should be aware of those who consistently filter out gray on the "Show Average" setting. There is a reason they do.

Final comment, just because someone is on someone else's Ignore list and they chew you out for quoting them doesn't mean you have to pay attention to that. That could just be a personal spat. But when five or ten people jump on you for quoting someone, well then perhaps you should refrain from quoting them in the future.
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so i am located in southeast florida should i have concerns over 95L
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i put it at 14N
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nice sammywammybamy my track is more NE of that track I will post the forecast plots soon
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1078. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:


People get frustrated and take it out on others! It happens. Good blog though for information and the occassional laugh. Tropics getting interesting this week.


I like to read the blog anyway and have my fun. People around me in Germany already use to ask me, what *my* hurricanes are doing, lol. And the name of my chief in office is Karl, really. So I watched this hurricane with some special interest. Unfortunately the storm has not been nice to the people in Mexico.

BTW: Nice site to watch the vorticy of 95L
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=PGI46L&zoom=4& img=1&vars=000000000000000111&loop=0
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70-80% at 8pm or remain at 60%? I saw the HH take off on google earth, got about 160 miles S of Panama City , Florida and never went any further , anyone knows what happened?
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4 hours ago it was still looking pretty sloppy...

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
Quoting UKHWatcher:
Have there been 10 weather related comments in the last 50 entries...? I doubt it!

I paid to join this blog a week ago and it has gone to "rats" since then.

I'm really disappointed. I know some suspensions/bans have been necessary, but why is everyone pushing so hard at each other?

There are fewer and fewer people willing to stick their necks out now and post anything which differs mildly from the NHC because of what it seems is a cult of "disagreecasting".

Take a look at the last 200 posts... how many people in any way qualified or learned enough to post a forecast have dared? 3 maybe 4? and yet the moment any of them posts, they are shot down.

S----W has gone, we may or may not ever know the full circumstances but he was getting more angstridden each day last week whatever or whoever was to blame.

samwambam goes tonight.

Reed is under constant attack.

Levi only escapes because he mainly only posts vids and doesnt interact as much with the blog (thank the lord for college).

So without any forecasters, we would be left with only discussion about how great the NHC forecast , which to be honest wouldn't do it for me or many of you.

As for the visible 'poofing' it's worse than first grade. Even you Taz, who I respect for your alternate/leftfield opinions and dedication to bringing new info to theb blog, which they are, have little tolerance for those who would dare even debate with you.

Destin jeff, there should be room on a blog like this for your humour, as a variety act to the main performance. No complaints.

Do WU do refunds? Because this is turning into crass, childish bickering worth nothing more than me turning and walking along with many of the conscientious uberlurkers paying their $10 a year to keep this site alive?

YOU ARE KILLING THE SITE, WHAT WILL YOU DO WITH YOUR EMPTY LIVES WHEN IT'S GONE???


You don't have to pay to join this blog...but otherwise,I agree with you.Even though I don't post much,I've been lurking FOR LONG ENOUGH

On the otherhand, 95L has the potential to become a much more powerful storm than thought by most people.People on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor this storm very closely.
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Afternoon all. Just a quick lookin to see how things are faring with 95L and Lisa.



Seems 95L is continuing, slowly, to organize. Will be interesting to see how it does during tonight's Dmin. The Mitch reference earlier was a teaser....

And as a BTW.... nobody ever said you had to answer everybody who said a critical word about you. There is POWER in withholding a response to such comments. But only YOU can exercise it.

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1071. Grothar
Quoting breald:


I like the quote feature.


So do I!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25335
I say the COC could be near 13.5N 69.5W (this is just a guess)
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1068. flsky
Quoting UKHWatcher:


Still not quite sure which one outta them and WU is running the biggest Mickey Mouse operation at present!?!

The difference is that he can choose to show a comment or not. No wonder they're all positive!
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GFS 18z @ 12hrs 850mb Vorticity field...



Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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