Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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1160. EricSFL
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1159. IKE
South Florida hit. JFV may have wanted... one too many times on here....

@ 174 hours...

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
IMO significant change from 12Z to 18Z on the GFS

12Z GFS @150 hours




18Z GFS @150 hours





18Z GFS shows 34 dropsondes in the run, not sure how many of them are from today's research flight but I would think a significant number of them are.


Would that make the 18z more accurate then the 12z? I thought the 00z and 12z were the more accurate runs over 6z and 18z?
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Link My blog.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Afternoon all,

Wow, Lisa continues to drift eastward, almost like it wants to move eastward back into the Cape Verde Islands. Does anyone know of another storm in recorded history that has meandered close to the Cape Verde Islands like Lisa has?

95L to me looked better yesterday than it does now. This sort of reminds of me 92L, which became Karl. Both 92L and now 95L are taking long to organize despite really favorable conditions (low shear, good outflow, above-average SSTs). Why?
Seems the CV Islands have gotten more than usual tropical activity this season. What's motivating this eastward drift, anyway?
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1153. USCGLT
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Yup , The Blog is going Downhill Fast

You know 5 or 6 well placed "bans" for the recent instigators (about 4 of em created accounts since August) would fix alot. And I dont need to mention names, we all know who they are.
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IMO significant change from 12Z to 18Z on the GFS

12Z GFS @150 hours




18Z GFS @150 hours





18Z GFS shows 34 dropsondes in the run, not sure how many of them are from today's research flight but I would think a significant number of them are.
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1150. IKE
150 hours...



ULL @ 150 hours...

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DJ's comments aside, which were as always, expected and fairly to mildly humourous (I understand it was the frenchie influence in the late 17th that gave us the extra 'U's and that the Pilgrim Fathers set forth without the letter U), I could live without them, but the teaching I received forbade it,

As yet. you have provided the most reasoned response as yet.
Admission time... I am Tim, I watch from the UK and I do at times wish for storm development/intensification and I admit I get close to drooling when the NHC underplay by declaration or 40 knots over a days forecasting. (That was almost as hard as joining AA). We in the UK often feel the "back end" of these storms . Witness today, Heavy Showers here, 20mph winds 17c. London 24c 15mph winds Sunny as h*ll. Both due to outflow from Julia/Igor/95L.
We got the West, they got the best.Link

When this goes bad, we get Faith 1966 or Charley 86 type storms. Mild by some standards, but harsh weather here.

So yes I'm interested in TC development elsewhere, but not directly over my house, like most here I would expect.

But in the interests of safety I always keep a wary eye.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Nice response. Yeah, it will get going eventually as it traverses westward.


I didn't think this thing being just north of S America was such a big deal. I was thinking for example Charley 2004 formed just north of S America. Or how about Hurricane Cesar 1996, also forming just N of S America?

I am more inclined to the theory that 95L doesn't yet have a singular center for the convection to concentrate and organize about.
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I wish all the pple criticizing each other and complaining about how the blog isn't about weather would either post something about weather, or not post anything about other bloggers.

Since I believe in the positivity.... and since I have to be off here in 8 minutes.... lol... Anybody see any potential here? This is EPac, btw....

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1144. barbamz
Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL That was a good one. :) Think Orca would agree.


Hey, Dan! Still remember our fascinating Eyjafalla-times? I'm still watching the scene over there.

And, to contribute at least anything on topic:
Nice site to compare the model runs of 95L. Click animation

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/COMPSTEERATL_12z/comploop.html
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Quoting unf97:


Tropical cyclones typically have a hard time consolidating while in the developmental stage while traversing the Southeastern and Southern Caribbean Sea due to the proximity and the air flow off the South American continent. Once these systems moves farther away from South America generally in the Western Caribbean Sea, they draw moisture from the deep tropical region of the SW Caribbean and Eastern Pacific. Therefore, the deeper moisture pull along with high sea surface temperatures and low shear will all combine to spin up systems like 95L. Once 95L gets into the Western caribbean within the next couple of days, look for much better development to occur.

Excellent explanation, much clearer than simply "The John Hope Rule" nevertheless still something to remember a great hurricane expert by!
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
LOL, didn't expect that many responses to my 95L question, thanks. So the theories you guys proposed are:

1) Its monsoonal (has broad center, needs time to organize)
2) Currently Close to S American coast, which inhibits influx of moisture from the south
3) John Hope Rule

4) all of the above

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BLee2333 that is not offical hence the words in caps (BEST) meaning best guess at that time which was at 4ish 3:50ish but anyway it is not the real COC
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11653
LOL, didn't expect that many responses to my 95L question, thanks. So the theories you guys proposed are:

1) Its monsoonal (has broad center, needs time to organize)
2) Currently Close to S American coast, which inhibits influx of moisture from the south
3) John Hope Rule
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Quoting barbamz:


Double lol, Grothar! You know, when I first came to this blog as a German, it took me some time to find out the difference between f.e. UKMET and SWMBO. Sometimes there won't be a big difference in respect to atmospherical trouble, won't it?


LOL That was a good one. :) Think Orca would agree.
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1136. IKE
GFS weaker @ 90 hours? On this run?

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Afternoon all,

Wow, Lisa continues to drift eastward, almost like it wants to move eastward back into the Cape Verde Islands. Does anyone know of another storm in recorded history that has meandered close to the Cape Verde Islands like Lisa has?

95L to me looked better yesterday than it does now. This sort of reminds of me 92L, which became Karl. Both 92L and now 95L are taking long to organize despite really favorable conditions (low shear, good outflow, above-average SSTs). Why?


This is organizing faster than Karl and Alex while they were disturbences.
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Quoting IKE:
Scraping the north coast of Honduras in 66 hours...GFS...


That is not a rugged area the North Coast so everyone knows:Link

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1130. Ron5244
Quoting IKE:
Scraping the north coast of Honduras in 66 hours...GFS...



Already more north than the previous run. Could spell out trouble for Florida.
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1129. unf97
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Afternoon all,

Wow, Lisa continues to drift eastward, almost like it wants to move eastward back into the Cape Verde Islands. Does anyone know of another storm in recorded history that has meandered close to the Cape Verde Islands like Lisa has?

95L to me looked better yesterday than it does now. This sort of reminds of me 92L, which became Karl. Both 92L and now 95L are taking long to organize despite really favorable conditions (low shear, good outflow, above-average SSTs). Why?


Tropical cyclones typically have a hard time consolidating while in the developmental stage while traversing the Southeastern and Southern Caribbean Sea due to the proximity and the air flow off the South American continent. Once these systems moves farther away from South America generally in the Western Caribbean Sea, they draw moisture from the deep tropical region of the SW Caribbean and Eastern Pacific. Therefore, the deeper moisture pull along with high sea surface temperatures and low shear will all combine to spin up systems like 95L. Once 95L gets into the Western Caribbean within the next couple of days, look for much better development to occur.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1127. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
ALERT ATCF MIL 95X XXX 100922120000
2010092212
12.6 290.6
13.5 283.0
100
12.5 290.6
221600
1009221600
1
WTNT21 KNGU 221600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 69.4W TO 13.5N 77.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 221500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 69.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF A 1009MB LOW SITUATED NORTH OF VENEZUELA. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTERLY AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOVING TOWARD WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 86 TO 88 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WHICH SHOULD HELP THE ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 231600Z.//

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
Quoting btwntx08:

its moonsonal thats why takes a while to consoliadated


Yeah, monsoonal, as in a broad low pressure area without a tightly defined center? That's what I figured. It seems 95L is elongated east-west rather than tightly defined and circular.
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1125. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
INV95/XX/XL
MARK
13.31N/71.23W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53446
1124. IKE
Scraping the north coast of Honduras in 66 hours...GFS...

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Afternoon all,

Wow, Lisa continues to drift eastward, almost like it wants to move eastward back into the Cape Verde Islands. Does anyone know of another storm in recorded history that has meandered close to the Cape Verde Islands like Lisa has?

95L to me looked better yesterday than it does now. This sort of reminds of me 92L, which became Karl. Both 92L and now 95L are taking long to organize despite really favorable conditions (low shear, good outflow, above-average SSTs). Why?

They call it The John Hope Rule, It was observed by the late John Hope (hurricane expert on TWC until his death), That basically if a strong tropical disturbance didn't make/develop TD/TS status by about 62-63W in The Eastern Caribbean, they didn't develop until or usually developed past 75W in the western caribbean, I think this theory/ observation is around 80% correct most the time though I could be wrong.
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1119. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:


You're not the only one. Know how many people have jumped ship?? If I want to be ridiculed, insulted, berated, I don't have to come on here, I just talk to Mrs. Grothar.


Double lol, Grothar! You know, when I first came to this blog as a German, it took me some time to find out the difference between f.e. UKMET and SWMBO. Sometimes there won't be a big difference in respect to atmospherical trouble, won't it?
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Official 1800 UTC fix was 12.6N 71.3W 25 1008

If you're seeing something less than 71.3, the center may be elongated, or maybe you have a secondary spin popping up.

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Quoting Grothar:


You're not the only one. Know how many people have jumped ship?? If I want to be ridiculed, insulted, berated, I don't have to come on here, I just talk to Mrs. Grothar.


Filter to "Show Good" and carry on. You clear that hurdle handily. Those who ridicule, insult or berate don't make the cut.
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1116. teammc
Stormchaser2007, can you go to your blog. I would like to ask you a question.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
18z GFS @ 42hrs 850mb vorticity...

Still has it fairly unorganized in 36hrs.





I wouldn't be surprised if that turns out right. Perhaps 95L doesn't have a really good center for the convection to concentrate and organize about.
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IR shortwave imagery of 95L suggests the broad surface low circulation is located roughly at around 14n and 70w.
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Afternoon all,

Wow, Lisa continues to drift eastward, almost like it wants to move eastward back into the Cape Verde Islands. Does anyone know of another storm in recorded history that has meandered close to the Cape Verde Islands like Lisa has?

95L to me looked better yesterday than it does now. This sort of reminds of me 92L, which became Karl. Both 92L and now 95L are taking long to organize despite really favorable conditions (low shear, good outflow, above-average SSTs). Why?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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