Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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The best the 850 vort has ever looked with 95L

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1259. leo305
either way anyone in south or central florida, should be experiencing cloudy and wet weather from tomorrow and on, as the back side of an ULL is already grabbing some of the carribean moisture and dumping it over the bahamas.. that moisture should move east and cover most of south and central florida, and the development of 95L/MATTHEW should continue that for a couple of days..

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Well, I'm on cooking duty tonight so have to run now. Will check in later.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1256. leo305
Quoting sammywammybamy:


+1

I pointed it out around that area earlier today
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Thanks just what I was fearing a potential stall, then an ENE/NE movement regardless of being far SW, could get a light brush, then a potential harder hit. BTW, It was a pleasure to finally meet you a few weeks back, A gentleman in true and a very humble man! I'll check in later, Tks again.


Thanks, yes, it was great to see you just as I was leaving home. Saved me fighting off your ducks to get to your door LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
storm must be chilling. must know this sunday going forward will be busy.
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1251. unf97
Quoting kmanislander:


For now I am watching to see if it makes TD before getting to land. It will soon clear the headland it is close to and get some sea room as it approaches 75W. My timeline for TD was 24 to 36 hours from about 8 last night so anytime after 8 tomorrow morning is still a reasonable call IMO. Dmin now as well so we'll see how tonight goes.

I think it will pass to the SW of us but it is the potential for a stall that concerns me. If it scrapes past Nic/Hon without going inland and then hangs around for several days as the models have been forecasting we could have a very powerful system lurking in the neighbourhood. A meandering major hurricane is not what you want.


That indeed would be the worst case scenario for the system to meander around the Gulf of Honduras area for any prolonged period. As you pointed out, some of the reliable models are forecasting this system to do just that as the steering currents will become weak in that region as we enter into the upcoming weekend.
This would be a nightmare not only for the fact that 95L could really intensify if it stays over water without making landfall on the Honduras coast, but for the severe potential of flooding rains should the system linger around down there for any lengthy duration.

Lots to watch for in the coming days with this system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


For now I am watching to see if it makes TD before getting to land. It will soon clear the headland it is close to and get some sea room as it approaches 75W. My timeline for TD was 24 to 36 hours from about 8 last night so anytime after 8 tomorrow morning is still a reasonable call IMO. Dmin now as well so we'll see how tonight goes.

I think it will pass to the SW of us but it is the potential for a stall that concerns me. If it scrapes past Nic/Hon without going inland and then hangs around for several days as the models have been forecasting we could have a very powerful system lurking in the neighbourhood. A meandering major hurricane is not what you want.

Thanks just what I was fearing a potential stall, then an ENE/NE movement regardless of being far SW, could get a light brush, then a potential harder hit. BTW, It was a pleasure to finally meet you a few weeks back, A gentleman in true and a very humble man! I'll check in later, Tks again.
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Quoting EricSFL:
Anybody has the link to the full 18z GFS ? Thanks.


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html

For anyone in S FL, it's a scary double whammy, kind of like 2005, just quicker this time around.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


So a Track like this from last night. Maybe a little more to right now because the GFS.




I am actually thinking a track with a break in the gulf of Honduras followed by some meandering around then a move to the NNE across the Western tip of Cuba.

This is of course well out in time and subject to change depending on numerous factors, including whether it develops and if so avoids going into the highlands of Nic. and Hon.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
My thoughts on 95L:

All of the ingredients are there for 95L or future Matthew to develop in 48 hours. Sea surface temperatures are at record highs,and there is a lot of deep, warm water out in the Caribbean. Also, an anticylone is expected to develop in the region, which will help ventilate the system. Once it develops a COC, this storm should ramp up fast.

Few things on GFS: Fall begins tonight, so this model might go to extremes because it knows that climatology is slowly changing b/c of the time period we are in (late Sept...early October). In other words, GFS might be more aggressive in regards to the front pushing into the Southeast next week.

Also, I expect a stronger system out of 95L then what the models predict, which could help this system gain a more NW pattern than a Westerly or WNW pattern. Either way, folks from Louisiana to the Florida coasts need to keep a close eye on this system.

Luckily, we still have plenty of time, and no storm yet.

Matt
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Quoting unf97:


Interesting to see on that map how big and rather stout that High pressure ridge is over the Southeastern CONUS. How the approaching and evolving trough coming in from the northwest in the coming days in breaking down this ridge and shoveling it east will be intersting to monitor for sure.


It is stout but the isobars in the Caribbean are not as tightly packed as before which indicates that the high has retreated slightly to the N in intensity. This should continue to ease as the trough swings down leading to a stall in the gulf of Honduras possibly.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1241. HarryMc
Quoting EricSFL:
Anybody has the link to the full 18z GFS ? Thanks.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle =09%2F22%2F2010+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=&areaDe sc=Atlantic+region&fcast=Loop+All
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1238. EricSFL
Anybody has the link to the full 18z GFS ? Thanks.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Hi
So It is actually more than 80%, to be honest I wasn't sure but I knew it was a high, I guess his observations went along with years and years of experience" what's the saying" "Experience is the greatest of all schools so that even the fools will learn" or something along those lines, What is interesting though it that most storms/hurricane that develop in the central Atlantic that make it into Eastern and central Caribbean seem to hold together or even intensify greatly in most cases, weird again, I guess there is just somethings about Mother Nature man was never met to fully comprehend. Out of all the potential threats this year, something about 95L has me on my toes, kinda have a "feeling" about this one, your thoughts?


For now I am watching to see if it makes TD before getting to land. It will soon clear the headland it is close to and get some sea room as it approaches 75W. My timeline for TD was 24 to 36 hours from about 8 last night so anytime after 8 tomorrow morning is still a reasonable call IMO. Dmin now as well so we'll see how tonight goes.

I think it will pass to the SW of us but it is the potential for a stall that concerns me. If it scrapes past Nic/Hon without going inland and then hangs around for several days as the models have been forecasting we could have a very powerful system lurking in the neighbourhood. A meandering major hurricane is not what you want.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
B or C
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1233. xcool
lol 18z gfs
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I vote A, 60%. IMO Still looks about as organized as it did at 2 PM.
none of the above. 50%
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1225. unf97
Quoting kmanislander:
The steering flow is easing some which should allow 95L to lift a bit and perhaps just miss the NE coast near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras.



Interesting to see on that map how big and rather stout that High pressure ridge is over the Southeastern CONUS. How the approaching and evolving trough coming in from the northwest in the coming days in breaking down this ridge and shoveling it east will be intersting to monitor for sure.
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1224. HarryMc
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi SJ,

I have both eyes on this one plus a couple eyes I borrowed from friends.

I'm thinking I might start wearing my contacts and glasses at the same time... would borrow some friends eyes but don't have any! I went away for a couple weeks and get back and what's with that GFS run??? Certainly hope that straightens itself out.
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Quoting kmanislander:


No, that would definitely not be good. If a stall followed a straight run into the NW Caribbean grab your children and travel documents.

:((
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Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!
95L AT THE 8 PM TWO
A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. TD


I vote A, 60%. IMO Still looks about as organized as it did at 2 PM.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there,

More than 80% actually. In approximately 30 years only about 5 AEWs that were not classified as cyclones managed to develop into one in the Eastern Caribbean. There were another 4 or 5 TDs that also developed there but not from Easterly waves. They developed on the tail end of late season cold fronts.

I once spent hours pouring over the data for every year going back about 3 plus decades to determine these numbers.


Hi
So It is actually more than 80%, to be honest I wasn't sure but I knew it was a high, I guess his observations went along with years and years of experience" what's the saying" "Experience is the greatest of all schools so that even the fools will learn" or something along those lines, What is interesting though it that most storms/hurricane that develop in the central Atlantic that make it into Eastern and central Caribbean seem to hold together or even intensify greatly in most cases, weird again, I guess there is just somethings about Mother Nature man was never met to fully comprehend. Out of all the potential threats this year, something about 95L has me on my toes, kinda have a "feeling" about this one, your thoughts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening kman, good to see ya. Hope 95 doesn't give y'all much trouble.


Hi SJ,

I have both eyes on this one plus a couple eyes I borrowed from friends.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Gotta love it.

No confusion here.

Local channel 10 met in Mobile shows the invest and 80% of the models heading dead west and says, "the most likely scenario is that it will cross Cuba and go in to South Florida"

Doubt he confused anyone huh? I wonder if he posts here on a regular basis!!!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Kman,

Thats Not Good at all Right?

It will have more time over water....


No, that would definitely not be good. If a stall followed a straight run into the NW Caribbean grab your children and travel documents.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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