Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Hey im From South Florida.

And im a Good Fair Forcaster..

I wasn't talking about you sammy.You make reasonable forecast in which you can back up.
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The area South of Jamaica is looking interesting also.
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i agree with Kmanislander it will likely be a TD by tomorrow night
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Tonight is the first harvest moon on the equinox in nearly 20 years. And this week, the Earth is the closest to Jupiter since 1963. Quite a start to autumn!
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its almost time for some of the folks on here to hit the F5 button
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Quoting txjac:
will it not be difficult for 95L to develop since it is close to a land mass?
No only cuz the shelf around there is very steep. 26 degree isotherm still extends pretty far down. Enough warm water to suck up.
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Quoting asgolfr999:
Gotta love it.

No confusion here.

Local channel 10 met in Mobile shows the invest and 80% of the models heading dead west and says, "the most likely scenario is that it will cross Cuba and go in to South Florida"

Doubt he confused anyone huh? I wonder if he posts here on a regular basis!!!
Quoting asgolfr999:
Gotta love it.

No confusion here.

Local channel 10 met in Mobile shows the invest and 80% of the models heading dead west and says, "the most likely scenario is that it will cross Cuba and go in to South Florida"

Doubt he confused anyone huh? I wonder if he posts here on a regular basis!!!
The local met here keeps showing it going into Central America on his cherry picked models. He says it should die out over Honduras.
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1304. scott39
Does everyone need to look at post 37 again?
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Quoting txjac:
will it not be difficult for 95L to develop since it is close to a land mass?
Well It all depends on the conditions.I've seen some storms form almost on shore.
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1302. JLPR2
Quoting clwstmchasr:


All it has to do is pull away from SA and it should then develop.


Exactly.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Some people are already pushing the panic button for the disturbance down in the carribean that hasn't even develope.Saying how it will be a monster storm,and cause mahham for Florida.Sorry Florida casters but I can see your patience is running low for the big one
to come over your house.


Hey im From South Florida.

And im a Good Fair Forcaster..

Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting washingtonian115:
Some people are already pushing the panic button for the disturbance down in the carribean that hasn't even develope.Saying how it will be a monster storm,and cause mahham for Florida.Sorry Florida casters but I can see your patience is running low for the big one to come over your house.
yeah...the hype index is thru the roof past couple days
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Quoting JLPR2:


If vorticity is increasing and organizing that means the circulation is doing the same, when the circulation gains enough organization it should fire more organized convection, tonight should be interesting.


All it has to do is pull away from SA and it should then develop.
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1298. txjac
will it not be difficult for 95L to develop since it is close to a land mass?
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Quoting CycloneUK:


A Spin is Evident in that Pic. Ill Circle it for you
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting IKE:


This one describes this blog...house of broken love

83.5 outside my window...right now...mostly clear...
Well done. I think we found the blog's soundtrack tonight!!
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Quoting IKE:


This one describes this blog...house of broken love

83.5 outside my window...right now...mostly clear...


LOL,

I am waiting for that cool front in the discussion you posted! Local met says its gonna stall on us sat till sunday, then pass through on monday. I sure hope so!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting cat5hurricane:
for sure. I'm not pushing any panic buttons yet. way too far in advance
Some people are already pushing the panic button for the disturbance down in the carribean that hasn't even develope.Saying how it will be a monster storm,and cause mahham for Florida.Sorry Florida casters but I can see your patience is running low for the big one to come over your house.
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Evening everyone.

THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SHOULD REMAIN PROTECTED FROM ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

I like reading this. Hopefully another will come down behind it to continue the protection.
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1290. JLPR2
Quoting Seflhurricane:
excellent vorticity with 95L convection is a mess and is not organized


If vorticity is increasing and organizing that means the circulation is doing the same, when the circulation gains enough organization it should fire more organized convection, tonight should be interesting.
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1289. IKE
Quoting doorman79:


Ike,

Were you driving the gray bus?

Evening everyone!


This one describes this blog...house of broken love

83.5 outside my window...right now...mostly clear...
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1288. breald
Quoting IKE:


The heck with it...here it is......Link



Thanks Ike!!!
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excellent vorticity with 95L convection is a mess and is not organized
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Quoting IKE:


The heck with it...here it is...long version...Link


Ike,

Were you driving the gray bus?

Evening everyone!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting JLPR2:


Ha! LOL!

Evening everyone! :D
evening
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Back Again. Wow look at that Vorticity.. Wow
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting Surfcropper:
No atlantic hurricanes with names starting with the letters N, P, T & V have ever been retired by the World Meteorological Organization.





Noel and Paloma; so make that only T and V
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Quoting IKE:


The heck with it...here it is...long version...Link
Oh thanks Ike. And it took me all this time to finally get it out of my head!!! lol. oh well
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Quoting Surfcropper:
No atlantic hurricanes with names starting with the letters N, P, T & V have ever been retired by the World Meteorological Organization.



Wrong. LOL Paloma was retired.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8485
Quoting washingtonian115:
Two majors hitting miami?.Thank god it's just a model run,and not happening/written in stone.
for sure. I'm not pushing any panic buttons yet. way too far in advance
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Quoting Caneguy:

Noel and Paloma were.


Kind of blew up that persons theory lmao
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
yeah...it sure is buying the idea of the trough coming in full force shifting area of concern well east.
Two majors hitting miami?.Thank god it's just a model run,and not happening/written in stone.
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1800 GFS shows 2 possible TC hitting Florida.One at day seven one at day 14.Not good!
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1274. IKE
New Orleans long-term discussion...

"LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS LIKELY TO
FORM IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THE LONGER TERM PATTERN AND THE ECMWF MODEL FAVOR A
LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REACHING
NEAR WESTERN CUBA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SHOULD REMAIN PROTECTED FROM ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM DUE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY.

DRIER/LESS HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT...IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN TODAY WHICH IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST OUTLIER WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND TOO
SLOW PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE."
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Jesus! GFS has 2 hits on Miami area from major hurricanes on 18z run
yeah...it sure is buying the idea of the trough coming in full force shifting area of concern well east.
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1271. Caneguy
Quoting Surfcropper:
No atlantic hurricanes with names starting with the letters N, P, T & V have ever been retired by the World Meteorological Organization.




Noel and Paloma were.
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Quoting kmanislander:
The best the 850 vort has ever looked with 95L


Yeah, noticed that. First time we're seeing colors on the red side of orange. It's sort of concentrated around the Guajira Peninsula; as it moves away form there tonight and tomorrow, those reds should increase. In fact, there's no reason at all they shouldn't...
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Jesus! GFS has 2 hits on Miami area from major hurricanes on 18z run
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Quoting kmanislander:
The best the 850 vort has ever looked with 95L

So far yeah. We'll get the update from NHC in a few...
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Quoting weatherman566:
My thoughts on 95L:

All of the ingredients are there for 95L or future Matthew to develop in 48 hours. Sea surface temperatures are at record highs,and there is a lot of deep, warm water out in the Caribbean. Also, an anticylone is expected to develop in the region, which will help ventilate the system. Once it develops a COC, this storm should ramp up fast.

Few things on GFS: Fall begins tonight, so this model might go to extremes because it knows that climatology is slowly changing b/c of the time period we are in (late Sept...early October). In other words, GFS might be more aggressive in regards to the front pushing into the Southeast next week.

Also, I expect a stronger system out of 95L then what the models predict, which could help this system gain a more NW pattern than a Westerly or WNW pattern. Either way, folks from Louisiana to the Florida coasts need to keep a close eye on this system.

Luckily, we still have plenty of time, and no storm yet.

Matt
All the ingredients are there to ramp him up, yes.

Not sure about the GFS taking all that into account but it'd be interesting to see what 95L will do first in regards to either docking in Belize or rugged terrain in Honduras. If that happens, it could severely impact this system, especially if he doesn't get his act together soon to make him formidable enough to withstand the mountainous landfall (should he end up there).
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Quoting kmanislander:


Thanks, yes, it was great to see you just as I was leaving home. Saved me fighting off your ducks to get to your door LOL

Thanks, LMAO!!, How true! Have to warn everyone about their vehicles that park in my yard, they love a car hood & top ! LOL
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I know this is an early prediction but I think so far Karl,Alex and maybe Igor may be retired.Remember just becuase a storm doesn't affect the U.S doesn't mean it's not important.
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