Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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only change on the TWO is that is has become better defined with coincides with the increased vorticity and the research mission going in to investigate
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION AND NASA RESEARCH
MISSIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
Invest 95L continues to get better organized throughout the day. One can really see a circulation when looking at Satellite Imagery, and Vorticity associated with the system is becoming more organized and solidified. I give 95L an 80% chance of becoming a Tropical Storm by Friday Afternoon, probably even earlier. Development is going a bit slow, as expected with monsoonal development. Once it becomes a storm, it should take off in Intensity, and I believe it will rival Danielle's intensity, and that may not be generous enough, especially if it crosses over that area of high, high TCHP in the Western Caribbean. Florida really needs to watch this one...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1354. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:
that's an Argent song! lol "hold your head up!"


...60 PERCENT...


***And if they stare
Just let them burn their eyes on you moving
And if they shout
Don't let them change a thing what you're doing***

95L....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION AND NASA RESEARCH
MISSIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1352. centex
Quoting IKE:
Lisa looks rather weak and forgotten....hold your head up girl!!!

Wonder if that is last CV system this year. The Caribbean as a whole sure has lots of moisture and convection. The transition has seemed almost immediate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at the shortwave infrared loop on the floater I would say the COC of 95L is around 14N/72W, could be wrong though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
sammywammybamy rule #1 never use water vapour images to find the COC although I see it at 14.5N 71.3W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11236
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

AIRCRAFT DATA FROM NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION AND NASA RESEARCH
MISSIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
One can see the GFS illustrating how "loaded" this pattern is for development in the SW Atlantic Basin, and why I believe Matthew is far from the last of the threats to come at us from the south out of the Caribbean. The development region is shifting west as the natural seasonal changes shut down the Cape Verde season, and now that that's over, the untapped heat that has built up in the Caribbean now has a chance to get released, and it is already starting.
levi many on here dont believe it will be a threat to the eastren gulf of mexico region, but when 95L develops into a TD i truly believe the models will shift east which always happens with all systems they shift east and west and people dont see that ??
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1344. scott39
Im not saying a hard right hook couldnt happen this time of year, but it seems unlikely.
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18z HWRF takes it all the way across the Yuc Pen...

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1339. Levi32
One can see the GFS illustrating how "loaded" this pattern is for development in the SW Atlantic Basin, and why I believe Matthew is far from the last of the threats to come at us from the south out of the Caribbean. The development region is shifting west as the natural seasonal changes shut down the Cape Verde season, and now that that's over, the untapped heat that has built up in the Caribbean now has a chance to get released, and it is already starting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fldude99:
So will any of the experts here venture a forecast for 95L with respects to the northern GOM?
Max mayfield on local 10 in Miami,fl did say he is watching 95L very very closely and that the yucatan peninsula, western cuba and south florida needs to keep a close eye on it
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1336. IKE
Lisa looks rather weak and forgotten....hold your head up girl!!!

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So will any of the experts here venture a forecast for 95L with respects to the northern GOM?
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Quoting scott39:
Who thinks the trough is strong enough to send 95L to S FL?
also depends on its position and how deep the trough is
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1332. scott39
Quoting Seflhurricane:
to me its a 50/50% shot all depends on the though and how long it spends over land if that happens
I Think its more likely to die over Central America. My next scenerio if it didnt would have to be Fl. Panhandle. I think the GFS has a poleward bias going on right now.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
you never know, but the models are a bit wacky, but i do believe if it makes it out of central america OR it says over water Florida will be the prize winner


He is actually the one met who is trying to explain 95L, reasons for track variablility etc.
He is just warning that the party is just beginning.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hey Guys!
Interesting situation going down in the carribean tonight.
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Naples to Pensacola is my guess
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oOo!

I can't wait until Fall
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I have a feeling its pulsating and will lose the rest of the convection till morning, then it will come back to life.

Karl did it in that area.
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Quoting scott39:
Who thinks the trough is strong enough to send 95L to S FL?
to me its a 50/50% shot all depends on the though and how long it spends over land if that happens
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
I Predict 70-80% at 8PM


I agree with you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting coffeecrusader:
If this does hit Florida (and I have my doubts as I think there is a high chance it dissipates over Central America), I believe this will be a west coast storm. However everyone here is talking about South Florida, which to me means Miami, etc. I just don't see it shooting that far east.
but if it makes landfall south of Ft myers then Miami will have a real problem like with Hurricane Wilma and the others if it is futher north the effects to south florida will be much less
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1321. scott39
Who thinks the trough is strong enough to send 95L to S FL?
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
One local met here in Tampa Bay said the models have so many systems developing next week it looks like "whack-a-mole
you never know, but the models are a bit wacky, but i do believe if it makes it out of central america OR it says over water Florida will be the prize winner
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Tonight is the first harvest moon on the equinox in nearly 20 years. And this week, the Earth is the closest to Jupiter since 1963. Quite a start to autumn!

Hope Earth didn't steal Jupiter's Brown Spot J/K, Thanks for the great info!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If this does hit Florida (and I have my doubts as I think there is a high chance it dissipates over Central America), I believe this will be a west coast storm. However everyone here is talking about South Florida, which to me means Miami, etc. I just don't see it shooting that far east.
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Looking at the radar loop, 95L seems to have drifted a little north.

Link
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One local met here in Tampa Bay said the models have so many systems developing next week it looks like "whack-a-mole
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Hey im From South Florida.

And im a Good Fair Forcaster..

I wasn't talking about you sammy.You make reasonable forecast in which you can back up.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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