Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
LINK

Isbell 1964. I never here stories about ISBELL, that's weird. It went right over us, granted I was not born but a cat 4, I thought I would have known


It was a Cat 3.

As said yesterday, only 1964 hurricane to hit as a major - yet, not retired (Cleo, Dora and Hilda were, though).

--

Hurricane #4, 1877

Hurricane #4, 1887

Hurricane #8, 1906

The first two are too high up in the US landfall, but show the proximity in the Central America track. The third shows the rest better, though shows it going more into Central America than currently thought (as well as the loop back not making much sense atm).

As said, if it does curl up towards Florida, Isbell's not far off.

It may just die in Central America - who knows.

And sounds like the first T-storm of the day starts.
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Looks like we are going to have trouble here in Belize. Time to get out the shutters.
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Quoting kmanislander:
...The aircraft still has a couple of hours flying time so stand by for the data.


Mornin' Kman

I'll have to check it out when I wake up. Been up since yesterday morning sometime. Definitely getting too old for these all-nighters.
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2758. shawn26
http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/images/2010/clark15latest.png


Florida does not look safe to me yet.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
yep...they would bounce in & break the new I believe.


A special TWO?
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models looking split, not being a"wishcaster" either. i dont find a major hurricane heading towards a large city funny ..

another issue of timing
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Good morning everyone

The HH will soon tell us if we have a TD or not but based upon the 850 vort, winds on the Guajira peninsula and the overall presentation of the system on satellite I would venture to guess that we have a closed circulation and 35 mph winds. It is conceivable it might go straight to TS as there will be some very strong winds in those deep thunderstorms.

The aircraft still has a couple of hours flying time so stand by for the data.
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2753. breald
Quoting btwntx08:

scrape actually


Google map shows a lot of tracks right into Central America. Hopefully it falls apart over the rugged terrain.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
LINK

Isbell 1964. I never here stories about ISBELL, that's weird. It went right over us, granted I was not born but a cat 4, I thought I would have known
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2749. swlavp
.
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With the new models now going west does it mean Florida is safe? I do hope so.
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2746. beell
I'm in love w/Julia at 32N 37W!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Trop. Atl RGB Loop
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Quoting divdog:
don't believe that will be the case. nhc would not want to issue a watch and have the storm not form. would be a field day for the nhc bashers that are just waiting for a chance to rag on the nhc.


Uh, you really said that didn't you? Sure, they would hold off - I mean, what's a few hundred lives when there is a chance a blogger might bash you.
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2742. breald
Quoting BobinTampa:


If that happens, they'll probably just close the blog for the weekend.



LOL.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Bonnie made landfall as a TS

Hermine came really close...
i remember when i was a kid tropical storms being much more than bonnie ever was. i felt embarrassed for people who had to call bonnie a tropical storm. i think the strongest wind gust i got in se.la. was about 4mph. lol! we didn't get but 1 shower. it wasn't even a downpour. i have seen more rain and wind from moisture being pulled in from the gulf than with t.s. bonnie. over the last say 15 yrs. or so did they lower the wind speed or amount of convection for a t.s.? or do wind and rain have little to do with a system being called a t.s. and holding that status? thanks in advance
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Quoting Cotillion:


Hey hydrus.

Still going with a blend of Hurricane #4 1877, Hurricane #4 1887, Florida Keys Hurricane 1906, and Hurricane Isbell 1964...

So far, the last one seems the most spot on.


you wouldnt happen to have tracks for those would ya? :)
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Believe it or not, Julia's back in the picture. Her remnants warranted a %10 chance bubble by the NHC at 8AM EST.

Yeah...it's a tough call, but central america sure doesn't need that type of storm if he develops & hit there. But keep us posted w/ the Recon stuff though!


True, but I was talking about Lisa. Which I guess is not TD Lisa.
Just a joke. =)

Ocrasystems posted a image in number 2720 showing RECON on its way.
If they find a TD will they do a special advisory or not?
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I think if the front is not deep to pull it n then ne..It could be in the gulf drifting around a couple of days waiting for the next front...that high still hanging...Also it could cross the Yucatan then get pulled ne...
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Quoting breald:
Morning All! It looks like the track is starting to shift more and more towards a central America storm.


If that happens, they'll probably just close the blog for the weekend.
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Quoting hydrus:
Good question.. My best guess is it will be similar to Wilma. Or maybe the 1873 storm. Yes the 95L track will be further south, but you can tell a trough picked it up and pulled it N.E.


Hey hydrus.

Still going with a blend of Hurricane #4 1877, Hurricane #4 1887, Florida Keys Hurricane 1906, and Hurricane Isbell 1964...

So far, the last one seems the most spot on.
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2733. scott39
If we could just get a NHC cone of doom!!
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2732. breald
Morning All! It looks like the track is starting to shift more and more towards a central America storm.
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2731. divdog
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Not necessarily. If they think the conditions will be present within the timeframe, that will issue the Watch before the storm is classified.
don't believe that will be the case. nhc would not want to issue a watch and have the storm not form. would be a field day for the nhc bashers that are just waiting for a chance to rag on the nhc.
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Quoting divdog:
dont we need a storm first ??


Not necessarily. If they think the conditions will be present within the timeframe, they will issue the Watch before the storm is classified.
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2729. scott39
Quoting HCW:
Looks like those are going farther W, which will shift the path of N then NE, if it even gets in the GOM.
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Quoting BobinTampa:
after 95L, the models aren't really spinning up anything else in the coming days are they?



Yesterday the GFS had Nicole tooling around in the W Caribbean then GOM in 10 days. Haven't checked today's runs yet.
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2725. HCW
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2724. divdog
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Expect TS Watches for the Yuctan to go up later today
dont we need a storm first ??
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Quoting whs2012:


Yeah, but Bonnie doesn't really count lol. Alex came really close too, but he still didn't make a landfall. And even still, we have not had 1 US hurricane landfall. And still that is shocking.
Wx mod 2010 :)
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Morning All

These models are flopping around like a freshly caught wahoo. As expected at this stage in the game. The main difference from days past is much less time over CA.
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Good morning.

Why isn't anyone talking about Lisa? j/k =)

The recon is scheduled for 10:30 am, I believe?
I don't know exactly what qualifications the CROWN WX man has, but here is his post.
LINK

I really hope this doesn't go into C AMERICA, but I really hope it doesn't hit anyone.
But Those people just CAN NOT afford rain. Mudslides and flooding would be terrible.
If it doesn't become a TD before then, we might have a retired INVEST! lol
(I know not really.)


You sure you don't have your systems mixed up?





Sorry, missed the j/k part
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2719. divdog
man nowadays if you set your filter to good nearly 70% of todays posters disappear. Now that is a pretty sad statement for this blog. Maybe its all the cat5 is going to hit south florida nauseum.
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Good morning.

Why isn't anyone talking about Lisa? j/k =)

The recon is scheduled for 10:30 am, I believe?
I don't know exactly what qualifications the CROWN WX man has, but here is his post.
LINK

I really hope this doesn't go into C AMERICA, but I really hope it doesn't hit anyone.
But Those people just CAN NOT afford rain. Mudslides and flooding would be terrible.
If it doesn't become a TD before then, we might have a retired INVEST! lol
(I know not really.)
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2716. scott39
Quoting sarahjola:
wow big change in the models. it looks as though 95l will turn south before entering the gulf. sigh of relief. i really don't think it would turn out to be much anyway. is that a ull just to the n and e of 95l? or is that just a burst of dry air moving through?
You must have not have gotten the Memo about the trough coming down and busting a hole in the ridge to still possibly turn 95L N.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6730
after 95L, the models aren't really spinning up anything else in the coming days are they?

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2714. shawn26
I know everyone has been model watching for days now, like I have been. We all know these models will drastically change in the next couple of days once they get a better ahndle on the storm. It will be very interesting. I just don't see how this storm does not come north.
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2713. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I wonder how the storm will rect to that.
Good question.. My best guess is it will be similar to Wilma. Or maybe the 1873 storm. Yes the 95L track will be further south, but you can tell a trough picked it up and pulled it N.E.
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Quoting whs2012:
It is so shocking that we have not had 1 US landfall this entire hurricane season. Good, but shocking...


So tired of correcting you guys. Bonnie???
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2690. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:51 AM EDT on September 23, 2010

I apologize for the error below (and the folks in Texas) affected by some of the earlier storms in the season..........:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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