Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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1461. will40
i doubt if they do anything with it until recon has finished observing it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says 95L is down yet another notch to 1007mb, and winds are up to 30 knots (from 25). Should go to TD at the 0200 EDT update...

AL, 95, 2010092300, , BEST, 0, 128N, 716W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


convection is not organized enough for this to be a TD

you are still talking probably another 12 hours at least
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
They took thier show on the road.
lol..alrighty then. More storms in central texas tonight, and 95l looks prime. I really enjoy the early development of a storm...it's the destruction I can do without.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
1458. xcool
OPPS NV
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1457. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if anyone saw this, but ASCAT caught Lisa.



perfect circulation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1456. leo305
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says 95L is down yet another notch to 1007mb, and winds are up to 30 knots (from 25). Should go to TD at the 0200 EDT update...

AL, 95, 2010092300, , BEST, 0, 128N, 716W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


based on that it should start to erupt soon, since that means it may have a developing tight center, and if it has that it could start to suck up some of that heat energy and moisture sorrounding it.
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1454. marmark
Quoting WindynEYW:
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=105580  95l track models
AP16 looks like a question mark. That about sums it up-Ha!
Member Since: February 1, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 243
ATCF says 95L is down yet another notch to 1007mb, and winds are up to 30 knots (from 25). Should go to TD at the 0200 EDT update...

AL, 95, 2010092300, , BEST, 0, 128N, 716W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting marmark:
um....then why isn't it classified as a TD?

There is not a lot of convection. Convection needs to increase and needs to keep the convection going for about 6 hours.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
1451. SeniorPoppy
12:40 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting marmark:
um....then why isn't it classified as a TD?


It's a tropical disturbance. :) at least lol
Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
1450. WindynEYW
12:40 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=105580  95l track models
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 331
1449. leo305
12:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It has that look...


yep the DMAX look, I've seen tropical lows wane into nearly nothing right as the sun goes down, then an hour or two later a little dot of red/ heavy convection pops up near the center and boom it goes..

might happen tonight, and if it does, it should become a TD/TS by tomorrow morning.. but.. I doubt it
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1448. stormpetrol
12:39 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if anyone saw this, but ASCAT caught Lisa.

regardless of satelite presentation still a well defined TS, thats why you can't always satelite presentation when it comes to tropical systems
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7932
1447. marmark
12:38 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:


It has Developed already.
um....then why isn't it classified as a TD?
Member Since: February 1, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 243
1446. centex
12:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting muddertracker:
Love the SRV statue..it's def. floodin' time in Texas...
Yea changed it recently, my old one was attracting storms.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278
1445. scott39
12:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if anyone saw this, but ASCAT caught Lisa.

Your Avatar is cool!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863
1444. atmoaggie
12:36 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Convection has grown, in area, but the depth, notsomuch.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
1443. hurricanehunter27
12:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
I think convection is going to go BOOM tonight.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
1442. scott39
12:35 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting muddertracker:
Where is Dewey and DJ?
They took thier show on the road.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863
1441. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:34 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Not sure if anyone saw this, but ASCAT caught Lisa.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32280
1440. Chicklit
12:34 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Hi Guys, close up 95L looks less organized than it did this morning.
WVLoop
But looking at the big picture the Caribbean is full of moisture and warm SSTs.
Plus, is there an upper level cyclone standing by for 95L to tap into?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11355
1439. muddertracker
12:33 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Where is Dewey and DJ?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
1438. xcool
12:33 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
95L VERY VERY FUN TOO tracking...
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1437. xcool
12:32 AM GMT on September 23, 2010


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1432. scott39
12:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


ECMWF for Home-Grown.

GFS for Cape Verde Devlopment.
Thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863
1431. marmark
12:30 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:
I Found this Video on Youtube..

The First Minute of it is the View and Sounds of Transformers Exploading

Look:

You done brought back memories.
Member Since: February 1, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 243
1429. scott39
12:29 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting xcool:
scott39 best one was ECMWF for Alex,
Thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863
1428. scott39
12:29 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Not really sure unfortnately if you narrow it down to home grown. However, GFS always seems to have a relatively decent grasp. Esp this year a lil more it seems...
Im pretty sure i read somewhere that some models do better with home brews! Oh well
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863
1427. xcool
12:29 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
scott39 best one was ECMWF for Alex,
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1425. TOMSEFLA
12:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
hmrf 18z end run nw yucatan
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 234
1424. marmark
12:28 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
pretty much. Accuracy & certainty will improve remarkably overall.
Thanks for the input...seems that has been the case and this is a wait and see.......
Member Since: February 1, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 243
1422. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:27 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Does anybody know what model had the most accurate track with Alex, Bonnie, Hermine and Karl? From the time they were an invest to landfall? In other words, the model which does the best with Home Brew TCs?


ECMWF for Home-Grown.

GFS for Cape Verde Devlopment.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32280
1421. kshipre1
12:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
very confusing pattern indeed. yesterday, GFS and ECMWF agreed on a strong trough coming down. Now? Not so sure.

The only thing consistent I see is a potential north then E or NNE movement.

anyone have any more definitive updates?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
1420. marmark
12:26 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Seems to me that once a COC develops, the models get a much better handle on projected tracking-correct?
Member Since: February 1, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 243
1416. WxLogic
12:25 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
95L not doing bad during DMIN.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
1415. scott39
12:24 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Does anybody know what model had the most accurate track with Alex, Bonnie, Hermine and Karl? From the time they were an invest to landfall? In other words, the model which does the best with Home Brew TCs?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863
1413. wunderkidcayman
12:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
good one bird72 well I would have to say would be the RGB VIS IR2 and kinda AVN
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12163
1412. stormpetrol
12:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
So then you are saying that a 60% chance now is just as likely to become a TD at the next update as a 90% chance now?

Not Exactly, I said red alert is red alert, the blood ie: is 60-90% as being normal, 60 would be considered the low side of normal(red alert)90% would be considered the high side of normal(red alert) the fact remains the patient(95L) is within normal limits either way and should develop into healthy tropical system albeit 60% or 90%, the prognosis is the same at least for now!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7932
1411. muddertracker
12:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
Quoting centex:
60% not too surprising. Maybe 80% Thursday and form on Friday.
Love the SRV statue..it's def. floodin' time in Texas...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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