Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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IM EXCITED
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I am just waiting on the ones that usually come on here yelling it will end up being a FISH!
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Quoting xcool:
okay any from nola to fl keep eye on 95l


And that is all we can say till cyclone genesis. I'm glad to see the voice of reason on this forum again:)
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Quoting cctxshirl:

Where are you again? In Corpus it was like that and the wind was blowing really hard, got pretty dark and sheets of rain but it wasn't a tornado, just another bad rain gusher.

i live brownsville it was pretty wierd just found out the outflow from it came out from the cell right over us cause i see the outflow on radar now going nw
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Good evening again

12.8 N , 71.6 W, 1007 mb

Slowly but surely coning together. Convection to the NE and SW of the center
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1604. will40
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Do you have an answer for post 1555?



When the models show a pressure like this of 976 , does that translate into something lower or what? Because I seen a lot where they show a a strong hurricane but with relatively high mb numbers.
Thanks.


it will usually show up lower than what is seen on models.
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1602. xcool
okay any from nola to fl keep eye on 95l
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1601. BDADUDE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I was wondering about you yesterday and how you made it through with Igor. Not too much damage I hope.
A bit stiff from sweeping up leaves. This storm was like a walk in the park for Bermuda. Houses are built extremely well here.
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Quoting will40:


yes sometimes it looks like they look at some systems in different ways.


Do you have an answer for post 1555?

Quoting HurricaneGeek:


But that says 976 millibars. That's not a 4/5.
Or am I missing something?


When the models show a pressure like this of 976 , does that translate into something lower or what? Because I seen a lot where they show a a strong hurricane but with relatively high mb numbers.
Thanks.
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I got a feeling that 95L will go much more further north than what all the modle are forecasting
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most models this eve have it hitting honduras then turning N and hitting or scraping the ucitan and then off to the nne or ne a wilma track looks likely to me tonight
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1597. divdog
you would think a cat5 is sitting less than a 100 miles from miami the way this place is. pretty hilarious.
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Quoting btwntx08:
geeez something weird just happen here before the rain started i heard a fright train like a tornado was coming or some hail but no it was some very gusty winds and torrential downpour in a flash pretty azmazing

Where are you again? In Corpus it was like that and the wind was blowing really hard, got pretty dark and sheets of rain but it wasn't a tornado, just another bad rain gusher.
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The Florida wishcasting on here is at a 10. I'm not wishcasting this and I am from Florida. Please people...let the models work themselves out till we actual get a formation of a storm. The rampant pinpointing of exact landfalls this early in the game is completely annoying:0
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Well-defined structure, but little convection.



You Can see the Clasic "S" Signature
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Too funny! lol
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like the GFS has the kids screaming "DOOM" once again....


+15. The Gfs Model is Always Taken with a Grain of Salt.

However, Considering most models now take this through VERY HOT HOT HOT waters then over South Florida...

Its not out of the question.
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Well-defined structure, but little convection.

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Latest blog:

Link
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I agree on that one
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Yes, but heck of a time getting the stamp to stick.


Need to clear out the dry air.
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1586. will40
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


OK thanks.
And now that you say it I do remember the NHC saying for some systems, only a slight increase in convection or organization or something will result in the formation of a TD.
My bad. Your good. =)


yes sometimes it looks like they look at some systems in different ways.
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Lisa may hit the conus down the road.
I was wondering about you yesterday and how you made it through with Igor. Not too much damage I hope.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting breald:
Poll time

How much do sales of Prozac increase in Florida during hurricane season?

A) 100%
B) 1,000%
C) 5,000%
or
D)10,000%

Calm down.



ROFL :D
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Quoting xcool:


18z GFS Ensemble to nola

I dont believe thats right. The GFS 18z has FL being hit by two storms, 1 at 174 and the other at 348.
Your image is not the GFS' 18z run from today
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Looks like the GFS has the kids screaming "DOOM" once again....
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Quoting Grothar:


North


Well, that stinks.
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Quoting shawn26:
I really think Florida is the bullseye for this storm, unfortunately.


Lets hold off on the doom and destruction type tone. We just need to keep a good watch on this one though.
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geeez something weird just happen here before the rain started i heard a fright train like a tornado was coming or some hail but no it was some very gusty winds and torrential downpour in a flash pretty azmazing
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i am fairly certain that if it does form wich is likely it will eventually turn north and mabie pull a Charley type track or a wilma track
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1576. Grothar
Quoting flsky:
Sorry if this is redundant, but has the area south of Cuba been addressed tonight?


Yes, yes, yes, a thousand times, Yes!!!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


mmmmmmmm.....

Nice analogy. Have you seen the latest model runs?

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Quoting will40:
HurricaneGeek from the NHC


Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).


OK thanks.
And now that you say it I do remember the NHC saying for some systems, only a slight increase in convection or organization or something will result in the formation of a TD.
My bad. Your good. =)
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Evening again everyone!

Repost:

Blog last 2 weeks=Link
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
1569. HCW
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1568. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


In what direction is it headed there?


North
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1565. flsky
Sorry if this is redundant, but has the area south of Cuba been addressed tonight?
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:


But that says 976 millibars. That's not a 4/5.
Or am I missing something?


This One:

Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
1562. will40
HurricaneGeek from the NHC


Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).
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Quoting will40:


np and i understand


ok . np= no problem. I guess?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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