Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Quoting stormhank:
evening kman and all...just got home and was wandering could the fla panhandle possibly be affected by 95/ mathew? down the road?? Thanks for any input.


Too early to say. Let's see how it gets on thru late Friday first.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Im Worried.. Wilma Did not Treat me Well...

I Had No Power for 12 Days

Once it Gets Designated a TD Friday .. Im going to go get my Supplies and Batteries here in South Florida....

And get my Video Camera Charged .. Im going to tape it if it comes through....

If Matthew does hit South Florida as a Major.. I Hope that he doesnt come at night...


I agree, I think. The bolding is, unusual, for you. I wish hardship on no one. I was here for her too. And, for the record, night storms are the worst,imo.
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Post 1630

Yeah ATL was awful this year temps got in the 100'S in the city 2 days in a row with 75%. The heat index at one point was 120F.

To all the trolls you may recall from pre post i said i had a house in FL, it is a vaction house i do not actully live there i live in ATL Ga.
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1656. quante
Looks like broad COC in last frame of Linkthis loop.


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Quoting flsky:

OK, sorry. It's just that everyone is talking about possible 95L, but I haven't seen anyone talking about the area to the west of it.


Where exactly are you looking flsky?
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Quoting zoomiami:



ewwww -- don't go there.


ROFLMAOPM
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Quoting weatherman12345:

when do you thing a depression will officaially form


Most here are saying no sooner than 8AM tomorrow, but I suspect it'll be around 2:30AM EDT based on what I see...
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Very unlikely 95L will get past 90W. IMO
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evening kman and all...just got home and was wandering could the fla panhandle possibly be affected by 95/ mathew? down the road?? Thanks for any input.
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1648. Grothar
Quoting flsky:

OK, sorry. It's just that everyone is talking about possible 95L, but I haven't seen anyone talking about the area to the west of it.


Just joking with you and being redundant. LOL If I find them, I shall post the images of the second system which might develop to the east of 95L
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1646. xcool
From wwltv.com


Tropical Storm Lisa has winds of 45 mph and is forecast to slowly move north over the next couple of days, followed by a sluggish movement to the northwest. Lisa could become a hurricane on Thursday, but will pose no threat to any land area.

A disturbance in the central Caribbean Sea still has a chance for developing into a depression or storm. Computer models take the disturbance westward towards central America.

Models have been fairly consistent in developing a storm in the Caribbean toward the beginning of October not a definite by any means but this trend, coupled with a pattern shift over the U.S. could put the Gulf at risk. Stay tuned
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
IMO It Becomes a TD Tommorow Night and a TS Friday Morning
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Quoting cctxshirl:
Has Brownsville gotten a lot of rain since Friday? This area has and now I'm confusing the mosquitos with the hummingbirds! They are about the same size.


I think they migrated from here --- a nice freeze would be good - kill all the biting bugs.
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Quoting weatherman566:
A) The GFS 18Z does NOT show a tropical cyclone hitting New Orleans. It shows it hitting southern Florida.

B) New Orleans is pretty much out of the picture. The trough will be over their area, and it will force the system to move to the NE away from the western gulf states such as Texas and Louisiana. Furthest west I would worry about is probably Mobile, AL. Looking more like a Florida storm if anything.

xcool said one of the ensmble memebers
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
1640. Grothar
Hey, if we can't OOH and AHH at the models, what is the fun in coming on here? It is better than insulting people. Don't take everything to heart people. Scaring people unnecessarily is ethically wrong, but posting models runs and discussing them is one of the purposes for which this blog was created. The dissemintation of factual information should be left to the experts; ooing and aahing are what the non-experts do best. Either that or watch reruns of I Love Lucy.
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Eagle eye

Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
1638. xcool
WEDNESDAY 3:30 PM

BIG DOG.. NO MIKE

I did it again. Someone was out there doing a photo shoot of me and when I took my mike off, I didnt put it back on, so guess what.. all that work on the big Dog, ruined.

Yes I did see the 12GFS.. no I did not program it to make it do that

In any case I hope to post later this evening for you I am sorry for the lack of posts today, but as you can see this is a tough pattern and I am trying to find something that would make me say.. okay I will change this or that. Right now the main message is a trough split interacting with an increasingly active in close pattern for development is shaping up right on time for a wild closing to the season, with MULTIPLE threats to the coast mainly between Louisiana and the Carolinas the next 3 weeks. Thats right, multiple as the prime breeding ground for storms in an above normal pattern is shifting, relatively speaking into our back yard.

ciao for now ***

joe b
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Wilma, the gift that keeps on giving.


Im Worried.. Wilma Did not Treat me Well...

I Had No Power for 12 Days

Once it Gets Designated a TD Friday .. Im going to go get my Supplies and Batteries here in South Florida....

And get my Video Camera Charged .. Im going to tape it if it comes through....

If Matthew does hit South Florida as a Major.. I Hope that he doesnt come at night...
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
1636. flsky
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, yes, yes, a thousand times, Yes!!!

OK, sorry. It's just that everyone is talking about possible 95L, but I haven't seen anyone talking about the area to the west of it.
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1634. quante
Quoting weatherman566:
A) The GFS 18Z does NOT show a tropical cyclone hitting New Orleans. It shows it hitting southern Florida.

B) New Orleans is pretty much out of the picture. The trough will be over their area, and it will force the system to move to the NE away from the western gulf states such as Texas and Louisiana. Furthest west I would worry about is probably Mobile, AL. Looking more like a Florida storm if anything.


18Z GFS does not show it hitting Florida. It shows it turning North and East just before Yucatan. It may not hit Florida. It may go east of Florida or West, or not survive passage over Cuba, although western part is not mountainous. Too early to say.
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1632. will40
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


How much? Why can't the models just put the actual number it forecasts?

Everything with hurricanes seems very coded to me. lol.


because they are seeing the Atmospheric conditions at that time. These conditions are always changing so in real time it may be much different
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Quoting weatherman12345:

when do you thing a depression will officaially form


No sooner than 8 am tomorrow. Any time after that
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1630. xcool
TOP 5 WORST SUMMERS OF 2010
U.S. Cities That Took a Brutal Weather Beating


(ATLANTA) September 22, 2010 – From record-breaking heat across the Eastern Seaboard to a sun-shy July on the West Coast, The Weather Channel (TWC) ranks the top five cities across the country that bared the brunt of summer's wicked wrath. As we welcome the first day of fall, TWC on-air and online looks back at summer's oppressive humidity, extreme flooding and severe tornadoes that dominated the season. Unfortunately, summer's heat still lingers across the nation with some regions experiencing well above average temperatures, making fall worth the wait when the next cold front arrives.

Top 5 Worst Summers of 2010 according to TWC:

1. Washington, D.C. – The city sweltered through a record hot summer, including several rounds of severe thunderstorms that triggered widespread power outages. Now the nation's capital is dealing with a burgeoning drought.

2. Little Rock, AR – With a record streak of 110 days with 90+ temperatures, Little Rock is the "poster boy" for the never-ending summer in the South.

3. Des Moines, IA – Swollen rivers and creeks pushed well beyond their banks in Iowa, causing a dam to fail in Lake Delhi that led to significant flooding in Ames. Des Moines also picked up 30" of rain this summer.

4. Brownsville, TX – It got a taste of the first named storm of the season when Hurricane Alex washed ashore as a Category 2 storm in June. A tropical depression soon followed. Then, Brownsville got a repeat lashing with Tropical Storm Hermine. The soaking and flooding rains combined with a typically hot South Texas summer only added insult to injury.

5. Los Angeles, CA – May gray turned into June gloom. It was no day at the beach in July as the sun stayed tucked away behind a persistent, cool marine layer.

TWC's top 5 cities for worst summer in 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
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Quoting weatherman566:
A) The GFS 18Z does NOT show a tropical cyclone hitting New Orleans. It shows it hitting southern Florida.

B) New Orleans is pretty much out of the picture. The trough will be over their area, and it will force the system to move to the NE away from the western gulf states such as Texas and Louisiana. Furthest west I would worry about is probably Mobile, AL. Looking more like a Florida storm if anything.

It is almost a sure thing it won't hit west of the Mississippi. But nothing in meteorology is 100% certain.
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Has Brownsville gotten a lot of rain since Friday? This area has and now I'm confusing the mosquitos with the hummingbirds! They are about the same size.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

I dont believe thats right. The GFS 18z has FL being hit by two storms, 1 at 174 and the other at 348.
Your image is not the GFS' 18z run from today


That may be one of the GFS ENSEMBLE runs that gives a NOLA solution...one of the many GFS ensemble models they use to tweak conditions to produce different scenarios.

And in fact, that also may be one from last night, too.

The only way I can see that NOLA solution developing is if the trough expected to form lifts out to early too soon and the cold front expected to make it into LA doesn't get here in time. Since that's not the expected forecast, this solution is not really credible at this time. A hit well east/south of NOLA is far more likely.


Anthony


The actual operational GFS run does go to South Florida/East Coast.
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1624. quante
The caveat of 5 day forecasts being off by 200 Nautical Miles on average may be critical on this one.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


mmmmmmmm.....FEET. and webbed, even.



ewwww -- don't go there.
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1622. xcool
Link

radar loop, radar loop, for 95l
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting weatherman12345:

evening kman, what do you think for the potential long range track tonight for 95l


280 degrees into the Gulf of Honduras, followed by a stall, then off to the NNE.

This image centered over the low. Note deep convection firing to the NE and SW of the center which is currently devoid of convection. I expect this to change in 6 hours or so.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
A) The GFS 18Z does NOT show a tropical cyclone hitting New Orleans. It shows it hitting southern Florida.

B) New Orleans is pretty much out of the picture. The trough will be over their area, and it will force the system to move to the NE away from the western gulf states such as Texas and Louisiana. Furthest west I would worry about is probably Mobile, AL. Looking more like a Florida storm if anything.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like the GFS has the kids screaming "DOOM" once again....

Yea, dual hurricanes...one after the other.
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The storm looks like it has a solid structure. I bet it will be like Karl only devlope a lot faster. With Karl there was a lot of convection at first but not a COC but then there was a COC but little convection and a little while later it went BOOM with the convection.So I bet tonight the convection will go BOOM like Karl. BTW reading from other posts there was also a pressure drop to 1007mb.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Or if Matthew is anything like Wilma, it may in fact have two of them. of course that always leads to a rather scary situation when preparing for landfall.


Wilma, the gift that keeps on giving.
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1616. docrod
Quoting DestinJeff:


Yes, but heck of a time getting the stamp to stick.


S Cuba - esp Isle of Pines (Youth) is a hurricane magnet - too many shower curtains per capita there.

Just sent mail for you DJ
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I got a feeling that 95L will go much more further north than what all the modle are forecasting


and hit where??? hmmmm?
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1614. quante
Models coming into alignment toward Yucatan and then who knows (except for AEMN.)

Link

All going to be a matter of timing as to whether it hits land (Yucatan, or turns first, or hits Yucatan, and then goes north or keeps going west. No major model support for the right hook over cuba for now.

Of course it has to form first as a Tropical Cyclone before models worth anything. GIGO.
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Quoting will40:


it will usually show up lower than what is seen on models.


How much? Why can't the models just put the actual number it forecasts?

Everything with hurricanes seems very coded to me. lol.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Matthew may have a large one.


Or if Matthew is anything like Wilma, it may in fact have two of them. of course that always leads to a rather scary situation when preparing for landfall.
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IM EXCITED
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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