Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

Share this Blog
7
+

Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1711 - 1661

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Quoting kmanislander:
Convective void filling



Hi Kman --- how have you been?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sarahjola:
according to my local met. the high over la. will move over al/fl. in a few days. if that does happen wouldn't the not yet storm move around the high, and not into it? so if this holds true then wouldn't 95l go either to the west, or over cuba and into the Atlantic, and possibly into n.fl. or Carolina even? just asking. i will not pretend to have any real weather knowledge.


Thats the big High to the North of 95L here

That will keep 95L on a W to WNW path during the next 48 to 72 hours. Then as that High shifts East like your Met says, 95L will slow down somewhere in the Western Caribbean as it awaits for a trough to come down to the Gulf Coast which would induce Matthew Northward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1708. Grothar
Quoting WeatherMum:
As GOd as my witness, I thought Turkeys could FLY !


LOL, let's not give away all of our ages.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1707. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting txag91met:

Yea, dual hurricanes...one after the other.
it will be a group of three then it will be done
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
Convective void filling

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1703. robj144
Quoting JupiterFL:


Not necessarily 2 eyes but some people believe there were 2 quasi circulations. Someone posted info on this last night but not sure who it was.


Wasn't it just a trochoidal oscillation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this loop of the 18z gfs bodes double serious trouble for south florida if it evolves this way (takes a few seconds to load)
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can anyone show me the long range models showing where on the west coast Matthew could potentially hit? Is the west coast showing more of a hit? or the south florida?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


Wilma had two eyes?


Not necessarily 2 eyes but some people believe there were 2 quasi circulations. Someone posted info on this last night but not sure who it was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:


95L doesn't have a defined COC yet so I am not really sure what you found.


certain persons blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1688. robj144
Quoting JupiterFL:


Or if Matthew is anything like Wilma, it may in fact have two of them. of course that always leads to a rather scary situation when preparing for landfall.


Wilma had two eyes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1687. Grothar
Quoting zoomiami:
Trollville tonight -- been a while since we had one so flagrant. I was cleaning my ignore list, since I have names on it from 2007. Brings back memories -- anyone remember Lester nessman?



From WKRP in Cincinnati, sure!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
according to my local met. the high over la. will move over al/fl. in a few days. if that does happen wouldn't the not yet storm move around the high, and not into it? so if this holds true then wouldn't 95l go either to the west, or over cuba and into the Atlantic, and possibly into n.fl. or Carolina even? just asking. i will not pretend to have any real weather knowledge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1685. quante
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


Actually, the 18z GFS extended out does show the storm skirting SE Florida en route to the Carolinas.

That's no guarantee of actual events, of course, but it does show exactly what weatherman566 says.


Anthony


I think if you watch it frame by frame, that is a different storm that GFS spins up out of Caribbean, not 95L. But I may be wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Gasp... you are old

edit- your talking about the troll... thought you were talking about WKRP


There was someone on there besides Lonnie Anderson???? :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1682. docrod
Quoting Orcasystems:


Gasp... you are old


I have to raise my hand on that one too.
Member Since: April 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 798
Quoting zoomiami:
Trollville tonight -- been a while since we had one so flagrant. I was cleaning my ignore list, since I have names on it from 2007. Brings back memories -- anyone remember Lester nessman?



Now that made me laugh. I got an email from member fatolepeniz one time. I can't remember all the old ones though. Post some more!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1680. quante
And another point, what is shear going to be like in the gulf? Presumably much higher this time of year, than in August. This morning it was at 40 knots. Now at 20-30.

Link

So even if it makes it to Gulf, it may get torn up.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow Coda that was a little much..... just noticed that he edited his comment to say fart instead of.....well you guys know what he said.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1675. robj144
Quoting weatherman12345:
i live in ft. lauderdale.. but inland. true it was scary especially at night. the howling wind was the worst for me. i lossed power for two weeks.


For Wilma? Wilma came during the morning and was done by mid-day. Sure it wasn't Frances? Frances hit at night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1673. xcool
btwntx08 you be okay lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting quante:


18Z GFS does not show it hitting Florida. It shows it turning North and East just before Yucatan. It may not hit Florida. It may go east of Florida or West, or not survive passage over Cuba, although western part is not mountainous. Too early to say.


Actually, the 18z GFS extended out does show the storm skirting SE Florida en route to the Carolinas.

That's no guarantee of actual events, of course, but it does show exactly what weatherman566 says.


Anthony
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:
i live in ft. lauderdale.. but inland. true it was scary especially at night. the howling wind was the worst for me. i lossed power for two weeks.



No light, no air. Hope it's breezy if Matthew decides to come our way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1670. xcool


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1668. Grothar
Quoting will40:

1655. Codaflow 9:38 PM EDT on September 22, 2010

your wish will be granted


He must know my mother-in-law!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
Trollville tonight -- been a while since we had one so flagrant. I was cleaning my ignore list, since I have names on it from 2007. Brings back memories -- anyone remember Lester nessman?



Gasp... you are old

edit- your talking about the troll... thought you were talking about WKRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floridaweathergirl:



I found it!!!!


95L doesn't have a defined COC yet so I am not really sure what you found.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
13 N 72 W
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
95L is behaving like Karl did when it was an Invest. It would acquire convection during daytime and go to sleep at night.... Until conditions came favorable for strenthening.... into a storm....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Trollville tonight -- been a while since we had one so flagrant. I was cleaning my ignore list, since I have names on it from 2007. Brings back memories -- anyone remember Lester nessman?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1662. will40

1655. Codaflow 9:38 PM EDT on September 22, 2010

your wish will be granted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormhank:
evening kman and all...just got home and was wandering could the fla panhandle possibly be affected by 95/ mathew? down the road?? Thanks for any input.


Too early to say. Let's see how it gets on thru late Friday first.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842

Viewing: 1711 - 1661

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast