Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Quoting sammywammybamy:
Watch out Caymens , Westren Cuba ,South Florida and the Bahamas..



Model consensus? Doesn't look good for Florida all the way up to NC.......
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Quoting kmanislander:


Aruba had West winds around 2 pm this afternoon so there is a surface low. I do not know if it is closed but it looks close to being closed. Convection is not quite there for a TD classification but I suspect that by tomorrow morning at 11 am this may well be classified unless the rate of organization tapers off tonight. I just looked at the latest RAMSDIS imagery and the convective void that was evident in the center just about 2 hours ago is now all but gone.


Evening KMAN. Way too early to tell but the good news is that it is moving west at quite a clip; the potential bad news is that it might slow considerably and some of the models want to swing it NE at the end of the period. Good to know that not much attention should be paid to these models 5 days out! PS Congrats on the graduation ceremony; so that is why you were over there!
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That's why we are posting on a blog and he is there.
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Disagree....

JB said North Mexico/South Texas several times this year.
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1905. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


Every frame showing the convection building. No void over the center now.

Its going to leave Invest Status soon and not look back.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1904. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER GEORGETTE (EP122010)
3:00 AM UTC September 23 2010
========================================

SUBJECT: "GEORGETTE" Moves Further Inland Of Mainland Mexico

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Georgette (1003 hPa) located at 28.7N 110.9W or 45 NM north of Guaymas, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

This is the final Tropical Cyclone Advisory from the National Hurricane Center
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Quoting CoopNTexas:
Per JB:

Next 2-3 weeks, pattern favors Florida.
Seriously, per JB, it's always Houston, NO, Tampa, Miami, or New York. You'll never see him call out a long range warning for far South or North Texas, or Mississippi. His business is hype, and he has to forecast to populated areas....as long as he can. Once landfall in some sparsely populated area becomes more probable for a particular storm, he'll change the landfall point at the last minute to save face. It's a business....it's strictly about selling to where the people are.
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I fully agree about the rain it will dump. It is just not clear to me that it has time to become tropical. Looks likely that it will but then as soon as it does it looks likely to hit land.
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Quoting Seastep:


Refreshed and see it. Still think it's a tad E of 72 and 13.4N or so... but it's splitting hairs.

Saw a post about your son. Where is he going to school?


One at UM the other in the UK
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Quoting scott39:
Sounds close! Tonight will be the test.


Every frame showing the convection building. No void over the center now.

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1896. Seastep
Quoting kmanislander:


Watch the cloud motion just immediatley below and above the 13 degree line. You will see that below the line it is moving from W to E and just immediately above the line from E to W

No doubt in my mind about 13N and 72 to 72.4 W now


Refreshed and see it. Still think it's a tad E of 72 and 13.4N or so... but we're splitting hairs.

Saw a post about your son. Where is he going to school?
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1895. scott39
Quoting weatherguy03:



Actually a real big concern right now is if it stalls near the Cen. American coast. Flash flooding could be very devastating for that region.
Chief Met Tonight said something about a possible stall. Lets hope that doesnt happen for those people.
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Quoting weatherguy03:
But its a good idea when looking at the models that you also look at their ensemble runs. This is a good site for that..Link


Bookmarked. Thank you!

Off topic, I know... just went outside and looked at Jupiter with binocs. It's at 5 o'clock from the full moon. Very cool.
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Quoting MelbourneTom:
95L is not really a concern other than dumping rain where it is not needed. Don't get me wrong it could become a concern but it is still too soon to know.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8%u220F=dlm3&am p;zoom=&ti me=

Lisa is being discounted but I still think about it moving West just a little. Then the steering raises a concern to watch. At the moment iit is going through a slow death.


Actually a real big concern right now is if it stalls near the Cen. American coast. Flash flooding could be very devastating for that region.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Ensemble models for 95L

.....one thing has remained the same over the last 24hrs the clustering up the west coast of fl,so their is some consistency w/this ensemble, I expect them to consolidate along the west coast of fl over the. Next 48 hrs......my prediction is for a track like charley was supposed to take up the coast,waaaaay to early for a landfall location,this forecasts going to be the most difficult and dangerous for the continuous imo
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Per JB:

Next 2-3 weeks, pattern favors Florida.
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Quoting ackee:
when do u guys think 95L will be upgraded to a TD


No later than 8:30 AM EDT, but I'm leaning toward the 2:30 AM EDT ATCF update.
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1886. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


Aruba had West winds around 2 pm this afternoon so there is a surface low. I do not know if it is closed but it looks close to being closed. Convection is not quite there for a TD classification but I suspect that by tomorrow morning at 8 or 11 am this may well be classified unless the rate of organization tapers off tonight. I just looked at the latest RAMSDIS imagery and the convective void that was evident in the center just about 2 hours ago is now all but gone.
Sounds close! Tonight will be the test.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
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95L is not really a concern other than dumping rain where it is not needed. Don't get me wrong it could become a concern but it is still too soon to know.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm3&zoom=&ti me=

Lisa is being discounted but I still think about it moving West just a little. Then the steering raises a concern to watch. At the moment iit is going through a slow death.
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1841...that is a good video.
I wish I had a video camera handy when Wilma's backside passed through. I live on a golf course, and I had a view 800 yards straight North where I could see the eyewall approaching, closer and closer, over about 2 minutes, and with each house that it passed I could see the roofing being blown right off. 90% of the damage was done in that one first intense backside eyewall band.
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1880. ackee
when do u guys think 95L will be upgraded to a TD
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Quoting scott39:
Kman does 95L have a LLC yet?


Aruba had West winds around 2 pm this afternoon so there is a surface low. I do not know if it is closed but it looks close to being closed. Convection is not quite there for a TD classification but I suspect that by tomorrow morning at 11 am this may well be classified unless the rate of organization tapers off tonight. I just looked at the latest RAMSDIS imagery and the convective void that was evident in the center just about 2 hours ago is now all but gone.
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Quoting scott39:
WeatherGuy that site looks very user friendly. Thanks again


Yes, everyone should have that site bookmarked. Its easy to use for those that dont have much knowledge about the models.
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1877. will40
i dont see it getting upgraded until HH looks at it tomorrow morning
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Dyamic 00z Models


GFS Ensembles 18z Models


Intensity 00z Models

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1875. scott39
WeatherGuy that site looks very user friendly. Thanks again
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Evening 03, good to see ya.

I get that land interaction will be a limiting factor, but I was wondering if the shear size of the system could also be a limiting factor. Bigger wheel, harder to get spinning, etc...


Evening, SJ and all. Remember how big Alex was? He ramped up in a hurry. I think, with the SST's what they are, that 95L could be a major in short order regardless of his size if sheer stays low.
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1872. scott39
Quoting weatherguy03:
But its a good idea when looking at the models that you also look at their ensemble runs. This is a good site for that..Link
Thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1870. scott39
Kman does 95L have a LLC yet?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
But its a good idea when looking at the models that you also look at their ensemble runs. This is a good site for that..Link
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1868. ackee
I think 95L should be upgraded to a TD by 11pm just my view
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
95L real COC is at 14.3N 70.9W you con see the banding starting to really developing



AVN imagery is the absolute worse for determining the center at night unless you have a major hurricane with a clearly defined eye.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ya know...I'm still not entirely sold. I'm gonna be conservative & say definitely by tmrw afternoon. But he's looking good alright....MUCH improved from all day.

I guess we'll find out momentarily for sure... You think a TD is in the making?
I would say tomorrow.
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Quoting scott39:
LOL, What models have done the best with Home Brew storms this season so far?


GFS has done very well this season. It has outperformed the Euro so far.
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Quoting Seastep:


I think more 13-14N/71-72W based on shortwave.


Watch the cloud motion just immediatley below and above the 13 degree line. You will see that below the line it is moving from W to E and just immediately above the line from E to W

No doubt in my mind about 13N and 72 to 72.4 W now
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1863. xcool


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1861. scott39
Quoting weatherguy03:


My confidence is low all over!..LOL I am being honest with you. But yeah I just cant see that hard right turn right now. I hope the Euro starts to change its mind with the model runs tomorrow!..LOL
LOL, What models have done the best with Home Brew storms this season so far?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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