Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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1961. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting kmanislander:
Final image for the night. 95L is now clearing the Guajira peninsula and taking advantage of the open sea. This is reflected in the steady build up of convection.

75W is the milestone for TD classification and that is not far away.

Have a great evening all.

yes time is up now it begins
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
One final time for the late show, I wanted to repost this bit from today's By The Numbers blog for those who might have missed it (and if you've already seen it, sorry for the redundancy):

Today marks the one-month anniversary of the birth of Danielle. At the 11AM EDT TWO on August 22nd, the season TC count stood at 3-1-0, and ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) was an anemic 9.095. Since then, we've gone an astounding 9-5-5, and have gathered an additional 117.34 ACE units. That's an average of one named storm every 3.45 days, a major hurricane every 6.2 days, and 3.78 ACE units per day.

Today is also the 31st day out of the last 32 with at least one active system (September 5th is the only exception). In that span, there have been 20 days with more than one storm going, and seven of those saw three active storms. In that same span have been six days with multiple hurricanes, including two with three hurricanes in action. We've also had, incredibly, multiple major hurricanes on two different days.

Named Tropical Cyclones by Date

ACE Distribution by Day
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Final image for the night. 95L is now clearing the Guajira peninsula and taking advantage of the open sea. This is reflected in the steady build up of convection.

75W is the milestone for TD classification and that is not far away.

Have a great evening all.

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The sleeping giant begins to awaken!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

Like I said I find that hard to believe this time of the yr. I would think a U inverted shape trough would make a sharp turn, but then wouldn't that have to cool down the weather too, which I don't see in the 7 day forecast. Also this yrs storms have the tendency to go further west before making the turn.


Danielle made the turn early. Julia and Lisa made very early turns. However, Earl and Igor didn't.
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1955. Seastep
Quoting Neapolitan:


12.8N/73.0W. Starting to maintain convection at the center; pressure is dropping; circulation is closing; winds are increasing. No way this holds off going to TD status until Friday; at most, it's got 10 hours left as a mere low, if that...


As I mentioned, splitting hairs, but the overall structure is getting better organized.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

I'm finding hard for it to make such a hard right turn. That would be the case late Oct. and into Nov.

I believe the thought is it meanders NE after stalling N of Honduras (@84 hrs) and the goes N or NNE into SE Fla or just scraping it (@ 174 hrs).
Not a sharp Wilma type turn at 20-25 mph and then zoom zoom zoom.
The 18z gfs showed the trip from N of Honduras to S of Cuba between hrs 84-150 I believe or roughly 3 days total before crossing Cuba and hitting or scraping SE Fla at around 174 hrs.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Yes, but remember, those are strong troughs, and this one appears to be coming as a strong one.

Like I said I find that hard to believe this time of the yr. I would think a U inverted shape trough would make a sharp turn, but then wouldn't that have to cool down the weather too, which I don't see in the 7 day forecast. Also this yrs storms have the tendency to go further west before making the turn.
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Comment 1942 is messing up the blog for those on Internet Explorer...
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Complete Update

95L - Substantial shift in Model track and Intensity... in a word... if its true... your Hopped.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting leo305:


if it stalls it can make a right rather easily

Not unless the front clears Central Florida. And that too has yet to happen.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

I'm finding hard for it to make such a hard right turn. That would be the case late Oct. and into Nov.


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Quoting GTcooliebai:

I'm finding hard for it to make such a hard right turn. That would be the case late Oct. and into Nov.


Yes, but remember, those are strong troughs, and this one appears to be coming as a strong one.
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Hello all. I am headed to a remote part of the Yucatan along the coast south of Punta Allen to go flyfishing for a week on October 1st. I know at this point we would be guessing, but what do you think it's going to look like in the next week and a half. thanks
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1945. leo305
Quoting GTcooliebai:

I'm finding hard for it to make such a hard right turn. That would be the case late Oct. and into Nov.


if it stalls it can make a right rather easily
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Quoting caneswatch:
Local Cheif Meteorologist mentions the stall, and says that if 95L does amke impact with South Floria, it would be next Wednesday or Thursday.

I'm finding hard for it to make such a hard right turn. That would be the case late Oct. and into Nov.
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Escaping Katrina trough the roof.....

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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
Quoting Seastep:


That will put a hurting on the pocketbook, LOL.

WUMail in a few.

How is UM working out? Have a daughter that isn't too far away from that and have had concerns about the culture there.

WUmail me.. Getting more than should be here right now.


Agreed and will do
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Several stations showing West winds well to the SW of 95L on the Guajira peninsula. Convection still building as per updated Ramsdis loop which also shows the wind barbs out of the West
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95L makes me nervous! Don't like that right hook.

And very happy to see the "fish" mentality seems to have died down. And I'm talking schools of piranha, not Tropical Cyclones. Glad to see the offensive post was removed so quickly. Thank you all for showing some class.
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This storm is just as likely to go to mexico as south florida. Everyone should just watch it IF it even developes.
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After this threads the needle,It's going to the Reedzone!
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Quoting Matt1989:
Way to early to tell exactly where it would go if it developes. Models have a bad handle on it long term. Just look at the ensembles they are everywhere.. It is a wait and see game for the gulf.


I agree. I really cant take anyone out of the equation right now.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
any REED Model results yet?


I saw a mention earlier that said Florida.
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ATCF just updated ex-Julia:

AL, 12, 2010092306, , BEST, 0, 330N, 379W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Unbelievable...
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Local Cheif Meteorologist mentions the stall, and says that if 95L does make impact with South Florida, it would be next Wednesday or Thursday.
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Quoting weatherguy03:


Tomorrow.
.....I agree sometime. In the next 24 hrs imo,could orgainize quickly to a strong ts or cat1 before a brush w/hondurus ne coastline,then north and then???????
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Way to early to tell exactly where it would go if it developes. Models have a bad handle on it long term. Just look at the ensembles they are everywhere.. It is a wait and see game for the gulf.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi, yes had a great trip for the graduation ceremony followed by Rome and Paris to celebrate. One more year now for the eldest son to do the Bar exams after completing the law degree at Kings.

95L should slide to ur SW but after that who knows. It could hang around for 5 days to a week

Let's hope it hits land first, before really developing! So let's see what tomorrow brings.
I have all that fun to come with mine!
Night all.
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1926. quante
definitely see some broad circulation on the RGB loop now. Convection died down a bit. Will have to see, but looks to be headed to a Tropical Cyclone.
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1924. xcool
WEDNESDAY 11 PM
HEH..WHO'S THAT GETTING SOME CONVECTION..

JULIA!!!

Yes, the never say die in me is rooting for the written off storm to get at enough attention from the guys with the "hatch it" job to hatch here again... And why not? She looks as good as Lisa She sure as all get out looks as good as Grace last year, named well to the northeast of where she is now. Be the biggest comeback since the Karate Kid.

Of course eyes are trained on the Caribbean as well they should be and from last week we both know they would be. And a week from now Florida will be getting hit or getting ready to get hit ( maybe 2 weeks from now too). There are several keys here. not the least of which is the chance for one or more of these systems to "bundle" the energy available to them. Odds are enough skirting of central America and the Yucatan will take place to limit what this could be through Monday of next week.

Two sets of maps you should go look at are oct 10-20 1950 and 1964. One is the King, Love Duet , the other Isbell.

Okay back to me rooting on Julia.... after all my support I gotta wonder.. like Bobby Sherman, with a slight change in the name.. if Julia do ya love me?

Of course one would assume storms would have to have Feelings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3FMSXAfVp0&feature=related

after listening to that go to this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hZI6qJBvDE

if you still arent sobbing, then perhaps you need a few verses of Killing me Softly

When a snowstorm misses me, this is how I feel.

ciao for now *****
joe b
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Weatherguy, this storm-to-be seems like an added challenge to forecast because of the angle of the movement and the geography. From what I'm seeing, we have the potential, amongst many potentials, for the entire west coast of Florida to be in the cone 3 days out. Even if it winds up becoming a very narrow cone. Thoughts?


Great point!! To me this system could go two ways right now. A slow mover towards the Gulf of Honduras, then the trough isnt as sharp and it slowly moves to the NW over the Yucatan and stalls and then ??? OR tough is stronger and this system gets kicked off to the North and then NE but not as sharp as some of the models are showing, which then would put the entire West Coast of Florida at risk.
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1920. xcool
JB said Texas season,over
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting caymanlurker:


Evening KMAN. Way too early to tell but the good news is that it is moving west at quite a clip; the potential bad news is that it might slow considerably and some of the models want to swing it NE at the end of the period. Good to know that not much attention should be paid to these models 5 days out! PS Congrats on the graduation ceremony; so that is why you were over there!


Hi, yes had a great trip for the graduation ceremony followed by Rome and Paris to celebrate. One more year now for the eldest son to do the Bar exams after completing the law degree at Kings.

95L should slide to our SW but after that who knows. It could hang around for 5 days to a week
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I agree with this forecast... TD tomorrow night

Link
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Quoting Seastep:


Refreshed and see it. Still think it's a tad E of 72 and 13.4N or so.


12.8N/73.0W. Starting to maintain convection at the center; pressure is dropping; circulation is closing; winds are increasing. No way this holds off going to TD status until Friday; at most, it's got 10 hours left as a mere low, if that...
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Weatherguy, this storm-to-be seems like an added challenge to forecast because of the angle of the movement and the geography. From what I'm seeing, we have the potential, amongst many potentials, for the entire west coast of Florida to be in the cone 3 days out. Even if it winds up becoming a very narrow cone. Thoughts?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.