Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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2011. Seastep
2009. GTcooliebai

Yes, that will get us better data. More focused.
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3:45 Nasa
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I got this from wunderground:

Tropical Weather Statements

098
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 22 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1245Z
D. 13.0N 74.0W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
24/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


3. REMARKS:
A.AIR FORCE MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 22/18Z AND 23/06Z
AND 12Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 22/1245Z.
B.THE NOAA G-IV MAY FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION INTO
THE SAME AREA TOMORROW DEPARTING AT 23/1730Z AND
OPERATING 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
C.NASA'S GOLBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 26 HR MISSION INTO THIS
AREA DEPARTING 23/1500Z. OPERATING FL 580-650.

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2007. xcool


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2006. Seastep
Quoting leo305:


I was posting just very little, I did read it though, I was on the blog the whole day


Sorry. Had a brain fart and thought I was talking to GT, LOL. See prior comment. Again, my apologies.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
00z GFS 24hrs out 850mb vorticity field.




Interested to see the time line this run. The shortened time frame made a huge difference in the storm to storm interaction it was showing yesterday. 2 separate entities on the 18Z
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2004. leo305
Quoting Seastep:


I was posting just very little, I did read it though, I was on the blog the whole day watching the developments on 95L..
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2003. xcool



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2002. leo305
Quoting sunlinepr:
Notice that dry air area passing PR & RD...



what a good looking Upper level low
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Will he be spaced out again?

Not as spaced out as the 18z gfs with 2 Fla hits I hope!!
But it would be fun to see him "out" there again..
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2000. Seastep
Quoting Seastep:



Yes, but unfortunately Venezuela will not allow us to enter their airspace so don't have a full picture there.

Nice thoughts tonight on the storm, btw, GT.

Edit: to add GT. No offense leo, you may have too, but can't remember you posting much before this.

Major error on my part. Sorry. LOL.

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1999. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
XX/XX/95L
MARK
13.11N/71.89W
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1998. leo305
Quoting StormJunkie:


That still doesn't make the model perfect. Especially considering we don't have a well defined center of circulation. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the forecast intensity and track.


Of course..

@GTcoolieBOII

lol

they mentioned it earlier today, and it caused the GFS model to turn more easterly towards central cuba, and then pushed the storm towards SFL/FL as a strong hurricane..

and yea if it goes boom and gets a name by tomorrow, it will probably move slower than the models predict, and would move on a more northerly track. It would also become a VERY VERY DANGEROUS system, since it has A LOT of fuel to work with, you really don't want a TIGHT spin over those waters, look at karl.. he blew up right at the coast, if he had any more time.. he would have hit CAT 3 before hitting the yucatan, and even then he did hit CAT 3 over the bay of campeche.
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Notice that dry air area passing PR & RD...

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1996. Seastep
Quoting leo305:


on the contrary we have data from a NOAA plane added into the models


Yes, but unfortunately Venezuela will not allow us to enter their airspace so don't have a full picture there.

Nice thoughts tonight on the storm, btw, GT.

Edit: to add GT. No offense leo, you may have too, but can't remember you posting much before this.

Major error on my part. Sorry. LOL.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

That all depends on timing of the trough vs. forward speed of 95L as well as strength of both sytems.


Yup. But, it mostly depends on the position of the Low pressure system expected to form over the southern plains early next week.
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Quoting leo305:


on the contrary we have data from a NOAA plane added into the models


That still doesn't make the model perfect. Especially considering we don't have a well defined center of circulation. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the forecast intensity and track.
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From NWS Melbourne Forecast discussion


...SLIGHT RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH GFS/ECMWF IN HANDLING
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...BUT
THE 00Z RUN SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WITH
LIFTING OF LIKELY CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS DAY 7 AND
AFTERWARD. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY BRING A WET PERIOD TO THE
REGION AS THE MONTH CLOSES OUT.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Yeah,,, REED Model earlier said Florida... his house probably its aiming to.. but he said it might be a hurricane cat 3 or it might just be a wave... this way, he will be correct eigther way and take credit!
and of course he has New York and the rest of the Northeast US or A are at risk
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Quoting leo305:


on the contrary we have data from a NOAA plane added into the models

When was that? Cause I've been on here all day, just lurking & nobody mentioned anything of it.
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Sure, with a grain of salt; after all they are just probability models and each one differ from another....
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Yeah and earlier today GFS was showing a Tampa Bay hit. If I were you I would take it with a grain of salt, since we still don't have anything to initialize, & no data from huricane hunters.
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1983. I wouldn't exactly say "boom"...Convection is increasing, and it has the potential to increase further through the night...But right now the convection is not extremely impressive.
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Quoting leo305:


TD by morning looks likely

its going BOOM

If this thing goes "BOOM" would that induce a more northerly component in the shorter term & doesn't make landfall, but gets into the Gulf of Honduras?
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Somebody is waking up from a long voyage!

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1985. leo305
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Yeah and earlier today GFS was showing a Tampa Bay hit. If I were you I would take it with a grain of salt, since we still don't have anything to initialize, & no data from huricane hunters.


on the contrary we have data from a NOAA plane added into the models
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1984. JRRP
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1983. leo305
Quoting cirrocumulus:
The center of convection.



TD by morning looks likely

its going BOOM
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Quoting sunlinepr:
GFS cyclogenesis 168 hrs Between Cuba and FL...


Yeah and earlier today GFS was showing a Tampa Bay hit. If I were you I would take it with a grain of salt, since we still don't have anything to initialize, & no data from huricane hunters.
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1981. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (T1012)
12:00 PM JST September 23 2010
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon near Bonin Islands (Ogasawara shoto)

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Malakas (980 hPa) located at 20.1N 140.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
===================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.0N 140.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 31.2N 143.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
69 HRS: 41.5N 151.5E - EXTRATROPICAL
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00z GFS 24hrs out 850mb vorticity field.

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The center of convection.

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GFS cyclogenesis 168 hrs Between Cuba and FL...

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Quoting BenBIogger:


Indeed. Wonder if the trough will help enhance more of an easterly component (NE/ENE) with 95L, once it reaches the NW Caribbean.

That all depends on timing of the trough vs. forward speed of 95L as well as strength of both sytems.
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1976. Seastep
Quoting futuremet:
Conditions are ideal for tropical cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean. An upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico is ventilating the western Caribbean--causing incessant showers and thunderstorm activity. Warm waters, low vertical wind shear, and good diffluent flow aloft are the right conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Therefore, I expect Matthew to organize rapidly when it reaches 80 degrees west.



He speaks! ;)
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1975. flsky
Quoting futuremet:
Conditions are ideal for tropical cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean. An upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico is ventilating the western Caribbean--causing incessant showers and thunderstorm activity. Warm waters, low vertical wind shear, and good diffluent flow aloft are the right conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Therefore, I expect Matthew to organize rapidly when it reaches 80 degrees west.


Thanks for your insight. I always pay attention to your posts.
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Quoting futuremet:
Conditions are ideal for tropical cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean. An upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico is ventilating the western Caribbean--causing incessant showers and thunderstorm activity. Warm waters, low vertical wind shear, and good diffluent flow aloft are the right conditions for tropical cyclone formation. I expect Matthew to organize rapidly when it reaches 80 degrees west.


Indeed. Wonder if the trough will help enhance more of an easterly component (NE/ENE) with 95L, once it reaches the NW Caribbean.
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I'm inclined to say based on the NWS discussion out of NOLA this afternoon the Western & Central Gulf would be protected from this trough. And I think the two scenarios are 1) It moves inland over Central America and the terrain kills it. 2) It passes just N. skirting the coast of Belize, rides up the western periphery of the High, starts aquiring a northward motion & the trough digs down & picks it up sending it across the West Coast of Fl.
Another complicated scenario would be another storm forming in the caribbean, while the stronger system steals moisture form the weaker storm. But I'm discounting that at the moment, since all we have is 95L.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Time to wind down with two and a half men.

Have a great evening. Back in the morning.
I have a mental image of Tatu screaming "da plane" on the beach by SSIG's place.
.
Time to go to sleep.
.
.
.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5582
1971. flsky
Quoting snapper01:
Hello all. I am headed to a remote part of the Yucatan along the coast south of Punta Allen to go flyfishing for a week on October 1st. I know at this point we would be guessing, but what do you think it's going to look like in the next week and a half. thanks

Monitor storm reports constantly before you go.
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Good night KMan.
Thanks for your analysis.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5582
Conditions are ideal for tropical cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean. An upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico is ventilating the western Caribbean--causing incessant showers and thunderstorm activity. Warm waters, low vertical wind shear, and good diffluent flow aloft are the right conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Therefore, I expect Matthew to organize rapidly when it reaches 80 degrees west.

Figure 1: Weaker Upper Level Low in the Central Gulf of Mexico and Well Defined Upper Level High in the Western Caribbean

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Time to wind down with two and a half men.

Have a great evening. Back in the morning.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes time is up now it begins


I could almost hear the organ music playing in the background when you posted that !
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Thanks Kman. Sorry you missed me.

Or something like that.


I did actually, where have you been LOL ??
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1961. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting kmanislander:
Final image for the night. 95L is now clearing the Guajira peninsula and taking advantage of the open sea. This is reflected in the steady build up of convection.

75W is the milestone for TD classification and that is not far away.

Have a great evening all.

yes time is up now it begins
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.