Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You're in big trouble, son.


Succinct but to the point. I like that.
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I'm out for the night... have fun

Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Models....
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2108. EricSFL
Quoting NRAamy:
Eric....yeah, well....I AM a fat purple hippo....


I see...
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Quoting NRAamy:
Spud! You're on here late....
Yeah, I was busy getting ready for my hunting trip tomorrow, but had to make sure that the invest wasn't flaring up yet.
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2105. leo305
Quoting ackee:
LOOKS LIKE 95L is slowing down to me anyone else see that


yea it is
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Got to wake up early for work tomorrow morning.

Good Night!
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
2103. NRAamy
Eric....yeah, well....I AM a fat purple hippo....
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Yeah. its forms from a piece of energy left in the Caribbean by Matthew.
sheesh...that one looks to enter the gulf after crossing from the east side, and reintensify, then turn east again...i'm definitely not liking this pattern set-up in sw fl right now
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2100. JLPR2
So Julia isn't done?


Convection firing nicely to the NE of the center...
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
My Panama City prediction of earlier today is now part of the AEMN model.

If I bet you a thousand $ that Panama City would not get hit would you take the bet?
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2098. NRAamy
Spud! You're on here late....
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Quoting islandeye:
if you look closer I think that might be a second storm that you see 'dancing' towards the end of the run..


Yeah. it forms from a piece of energy left in the Caribbean by Matthew.
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2096. ackee
LOOKS LIKE 95L is slowing down to me anyone else see that
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My Panama City prediction of earlier today is now part of the AEMN model.

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2094. EricSFL
Quoting islandeye:
if you look closer I think that might be a second storm that you see 'dancing' towards the end of the run..


Nicole IS the second storm...
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Quoting victoriahurricane:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but that "S" shape apparent in 95L is a sign of just before a TD right? Or is it only a V shape that I'm thinking about (I remember someone mentioning an S shape earlier in the season)? The center's completely covered now, organization continues.


The S shape would indicate banding features setting up and yes, increased organization. Fuel is there for rapid intensification once 95L decides to pull the trigger.

Another note, when looking at the global model runs (GFS, NoGAPS ect..) they don't accurately predict intensity. The storm the GFS is modeling could easily be a CAT 5 or a tropical storm. Storm specific models like the GFDL and HWRF are the ones to look at for intensity and even those are often wrong.
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Quoting BenBIogger:
GFS has Nicole dancing around the Gulf of Mexico.
if you look closer I think that might be a second storm that you see 'dancing' towards the end of the run..
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

Yes he is a very good guy, he knows how to hold his cool. If I knew him I would say he is very friendly.
xcool! Keep the good info coming!
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GFS has Nicole dancing around the Gulf of Mexico.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Yes,
Quoting flsky:

Is the rotation south of Haiti at this point?



Yes, south of Haiti/RD

take a look
Link
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Quoting EricSFL:


And don't forget this system was forecasted by some of the models since about a week ago. All showing a very similar track, but different intensities.

Aha yep you got that right!
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but that "S" shape apparent in 95L is a sign of just before a TD right? Or is it only a V shape that I'm thinking about (I remember someone mentioning an S shape earlier in the season)? The center's completely covered now, organization continues.
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2086. xcool
lol
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
XCOOL......just so you know...you're very much appreciated to us out here lurking...many thanks

Yes he is a very good guy, he knows how to hold his cool. If I knew him I would say he is very friendly.
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you reckon we could get a little rain out of it in miss.?
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

How is the 00Z GFS handling the cutoff?


Also it keeps the cutoff stationary over the southern plains through most of the run.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Nicole taking shape in the Cntrl Caribb @ 228
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Ships puts L95 at 116 MPH in 72 hours.
I think that is possible but unlikly. Karl was able to go from what, 40 to 120 in a day?
See you guys later, im going to hit the old dusty trail.......
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2079. xcool
hmm
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2078. EricSFL
Quoting GTcooliebai:

I know there is a saying take it with a grain of salt, but it's getting to a point that a FL. landfall seems inevitable, & what does this make 4 runs in a row? So I'm looking for trends & the GFS seems pretty consistent.


And don't forget this system was forecasted by some of the models since about a week ago. All showing a very similar track, but different intensities.
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Quoting xcool:
GTcooliebai HMM how you know my name .?

LOL~P
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Take that back, just N of TPA. That's a worst case scenario for them depending on the strength.
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Yes it is, thou it has flared up SSE of PR.....

Quoting flsky:

Is the rotation south of Haiti at this point?
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I've been away from the blog for the day, can anyone give me a quick update on 95l? Just curious if we are still looking for development to enter the GOM or if things have changed? I think I saw something that looked like it might stay south or west. If it makes the turn to the north later than forecasted that could mean more time spent over the Yucatan and therefore a weaker system.
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2073. xcool
GTcooliebai HMM how you know my name .?
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

How is the 00Z GFS handling the cutoff?



Pretty much the same as the previous runs.
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Quoting xcool:


JUST LIKE 18Z ensemble DING DING

GREAT SCOTTS!
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Landfall just south of TPA.

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Quoting futuremet:

I know there is a saying take it with a grain of salt, but it's getting to a point that a FL. landfall seems inevitable, & what does this make 4 runs in a row? So I'm looking for trends & the GFS seems pretty consistent.
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2068. 7544
looks like the models still showing a fl landfall should now be a good time to check your supplies . we start the coutdown ?

around t- 7days
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2067. xcool


JUST LIKE 18Z ensemble DING DING
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Quoting xcool:
174HRS HEAD BACK TO NW JUST LIKE 18Z ensemble

How is the 00Z GFS handling the cutoff?
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2065. JLPR2
Quoting EricSFL:


Hey JLPR2.


Hiya! :D
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XCOOL......just so you know...you're very much appreciated to us out here lurking...many thanks
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how big in size and strenth do ya'll think it will get,i know it's an educated guess.
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2062. xcool
174HRS HEAD BACK TO NW JUST LIKE 18Z ensemble
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Quoting futuremet:


At least the GFS is consistent with the 18Z on the time line. That was a big jump on the 18Z.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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