Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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2157. JLPR2
I got to my 3,000th Comment! :O

Also...
Lisa is looking sad.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735


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wow
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2150. jonelu
Quoting MississippiBoy:
if 95l gets pulled to the north by the front,the front does not pick it up and take it what happens to it?

If it gets pulled it will follow...I think its rare...for a system to get pulled and then not follow...unless it weakens rapidly for some other reason.
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2149. JLPR2
Starting to look TDish...
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I agree but, that trough is sure to make it move North for sure.....when, where, and how strong is what is in question.....which means we don't know crap yet......LOL


Well one thing is becoming pretty clear, and that is the fact that nearly all the reliable models show much less land interaction in the near term.
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2145. ackee
if 95L continue slow down in the central carrbean it could get stroger than anticipate in central carrbean track further WNW than models have it now avoid central america
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I agree but, that trough is sure to make it move North for sure.....when, where, and how strong is what is in question.....which means we don't know crap yet......LOL


yeah it "should move north" but I want to see near term of how much affect Honduras has. If it weakens it enough.. it will meander to Belieze and up the yucitan..or cut south missing it cause it will be so weak. I dont think that part will happen though. I think it brushes Honduras..ends up near Rotan Honduras then moves N.. but I'm not sure really. :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't drink it either. :/


and you probably have a Panama City Landfall on your mind huh??
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2139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
XX/XX/95L
MARK
13.11N/73.89W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
2138. EricSFL
Quoting traumaboyy:


You don't drink coffee???

REPORTED!!


Ease down, Tazmanian!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


You don't drink coffee???

REPORTED!!
LOL
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Quoting traumaboyy:


You don't drink coffee???

REPORTED!!


I don't drink it either. :/
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

Wow! You have not been on in a while, how are you doing?


I stay away from the drama on here now. Its really not healthy......LOL
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Quoting NRAamy:
Archery?! Damn, that's hardcore!!!!

:)

Post some photos when you come back....

will do.
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2133. flsky
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Going up to the Centenials to archery hunt. Elk and deer are open. My buddy is up already with the horses and mules.

I've never understood the joy of a "sport" where you have to kill something....
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2132. jonelu
Quoting sunlinepr:


Notice that when that dry air area over PR moves west, that wind shear over the N of 95L is going to end... Then there will be more favorable conditions for 95L to develop



That upper level low will definitely provide some shear...I wonder if it will lead it west..
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Quoting scottsvb:
95L still too early on to tell.. give it @ least till Sunday before we know where it will go , if any. Placement of trough and strength of 95L/position will matter also.


I agree but, that trough is sure to make it move North for sure.....when, where, and how strong is what is in question.....which means we don't know crap yet......LOL
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like a West Coast Florida problem coming next week.

Wow! You have not been on in a while, how are you doing?
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2128. xcool
any from nola to fl
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like a West Coast Florida problem coming next week.


Agreed.
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95L still too early on to tell.. give it @ least till Sunday before we know where it will go , if any. Placement of trough and strength of 95L/position will matter also.
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Man, if the models hold true, a storm weary section of the gulf is going to get it again. The only parts of the gulf coast that are mostly unscathed since 2004 are around Tampa and Corpus Christi.
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2122. JLPR2
I'm watching Ex-Julia in awe, that is one persistent bugger. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Yes, it is located S of Haiti/RD, but wind shear has flared up some activity SSW of PR..... but it is located S of Haiti and .....
and....

so it's located.... S of.....
sorry man I'm gettin ZZZZZZZZ Zleeppy...

Quoting flsky:

SSE of PR isn't S of Haiti. Check your map.
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Good morning night shift!!!...Coffee and Oatmeal rasin cookies ready!!
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Looks like a West Coast Florida problem coming next week.
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2115. flsky
Quoting sunlinepr:
Yes it is, thou it has flared up SSE of PR.....


SSE of PR isn't S of Haiti. Check your map.
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2113. ackee
pre Matthew might cause lot flooding in the region from central amermica to the Greater Antellies could be in for a lot of rain seem like the GFS also hiting next storm in central Carrb hope this senario does not play out
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You're in big trouble, son.


Succinct but to the point. I like that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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