Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I do go by the name Mighty Oracle on pretty much every other site besides this one, so I'll see what I can do.

*invokes inherent supernatural power in an attempt to manipulate nature*


woot, lol
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I do go by the name Mighty Oracle on pretty much every other site besides this one, so I'll see what I can do.

*invokes inherent supernatural power in an attempt to manipulate nature*


I'm going to remember this if it ends up hitting Destin lol
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Quoting RuBRNded:


Idaho, i live in w/washishington and have bow hunted elk since i got out of active duty army (88), u have to be a total idiot to stab yourself.
" there but for the grace of god...."
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Quoting RuBRNded:



Make it hit destin so destin Jeff and I have somethin to do


Well I do go by the name Mighty Oracle on pretty much every other site besides this one, so I'll see what I can do.

*invokes inherent supernatural power in an attempt to manipulate nature*
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
nope just google I AM THE SMARTEST COASTY AND THE NHC SUCKS and you will go right to his site.


Why say that?
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Quoting bballerf50:
I remember when Dr. M would reference Storm for his expertise and now the guy is gone. What a huge loss. I don't feel like this blog has any prestige now.


He is gone for a reason. There is a lot more to the story than most know i suspect! Move on as there are many on here that do as good as job as Storm did. He is doing his own blog and it can be found!
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95L looks to be a whopper. I can see this becoming a very large storm. If the GFS verifies the SE is going to need to build a bigger boat. This is going to be a long October with all the energy the GFS is showing out there. I hope the GOM and SE has their supplies ready.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Very true!!
Would love some elk...maybe couple more months!!


Idaho, i live in w/washishington and have bow hunted elk since i got out of active duty army (88), u have to be a total idiot to stab yourself.
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just to let ya'll know i find this blog both informative (sometimes) & entertaining. It can get really boring on this drilling rig at night. Ya'll keep it up. But someone please forecast this soon to be storm away from the GOM lol... wish it away, we don't need it.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Redbull is the greatest invention in the last 20 years!


Okay, Red Bull's a close second. lol
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2196. flsky
Quoting NRAamy:
Flsky.....are you a vegetarian?

Nope
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2195. jonelu
Quoting reedzone:
95L is becoming better organized tonight, I will not rule out classification around 5-11 a.m. if the trend continues. Again, whatever is left of 95L, whether it be a Hurricane or a remnant low, will go north. Mitch in 1998 is a good example, while it stayed in CA for days, it was pulled north by a strong trough. The great news out of this whole thing is that Florida will receive a good drenching, but how strong it will be depends on how long it stays in CA, if it even hits it.
we need water for sure...I just feel a Charley from this one...which wont effect me WPB...but screw up west and central fl
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
Well, seems like GFS ensemble models, finally agree on what will happen, at least one hour from now.... Good nite...., (at least I won't notice one hour from now....ZZZ)

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Quoting CoopNTexas:
CMC struggles with 95L....

Long range CMC - more L's for Fla




That's great news, a broad low for Florida would be great news for the drought.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
2188. NRAamy
Yes, bballer, he's really gone....this is not a nightmare you can wake up from....
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wow


what is the blue and purple in the GOM?
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2185. xcool
cmc 00z hah
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CMC struggles with 95L....

Long range CMC - more L's for Fla


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2183. xcool
hmmmm candayy starburst
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95L is becoming better organized tonight, I will not rule out classification around 5-11 a.m. if the trend continues. Again, whatever is left of 95L, whether it be a Hurricane or a remnant low, will go north. Mitch in 1998 is a good example, while it stayed in CA for days, it was pulled north by a strong trough. The great news out of this whole thing is that Florida will receive a good drenching, but how strong it will be depends on how long it stays in CA, if it even hits it.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I will have to try deer curry....got a recipe? LOL!

Haha, unfortunately I haven't cooked curry in a while...at least not since I was living by myself, but my mom cooks good & my dad would've been glad to give anyone his recipe as he always use to get compliments for his cooking.
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2170. EricSFL
Quoting BreadandCircuses:








LOL
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2169. xcool
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If you all would like to view i have 4 different imiage floaters up on my Website. Anything more than that things will work too slow.
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Quoting scottsvb:


yeah it "should move north" but I want to see near term of how much affect Honduras has. If it weakens it enough.. it will meander to Belieze and up the yucitan..or cut south missing it cause it will be so weak. I dont think that part will happen though. I think it brushes Honduras..ends up near Rotan Honduras then moves N.. but I'm not sure really. :)


MOre likely a stall will occur at some point for up to maybe 12hrs. That time will be very important if it is off shore and not on land before the turn toward the north. Does it cross Cuba will also help. Not sure it will be a major in the GOM with the increased Shear i believe that the GOM will have when it gets there.
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Quoting JLPR2:
I got to my 3,000th Comment! :O

Also...
Lisa is looking sad.
Congrats! a lofty achievement. I'm taking up a collection to get you a plack.
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Nearly textbook

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Quoting traumaboyy:


and you probably have a Panama City Landfall on your mind huh??


bwahaha, actually no. :P
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.