Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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2261. jonelu
Quoting nickih:
long time lurker...y'all, is That Which Has No Name gonna ruin our holiday? Brunswick County, NC, beach house 10/2-10/9. We can drive in the rain on the second. But, as y'all know, driving in wind would be a problem. Please be gentle. We love our NC beach. Just want to get there. We'll deal with causeway closing or whatever else nature throws. ??? With nervous respect to y'all.

PS - went through the secondary backlash of Ivan and a no-name in 2008 there ... not that that matters.

Its early...just be on guard....yer far away.
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Hey guys watching 95L closely here in tampa still a lot of uncertainty with this system.
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Nite all.......just some quick reference. I will be needing 2nd hand children Coats that look new for a charity drive .......info to come. Thanks for anyone that can help out as these jackets and Coats will be given out to kids that need them. Thanks!
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I'm out everyone! Good Night!
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Quoting JLPR2:
I'm watching Ex-Julia in awe, that is one persistent bugger. XD

Man, if that thing comes around for round two, I'm going to be more than a little amazed. It's very rare to see one do this.
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Quoting btwntx08:
it will like kman said starting to take advantage and what is hard just raising to 70% theyre scared lol


I respectfully disagree.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
So does anyone have a link to imagery that shows some rotation to 95L?...still a little skeptical.


Go to my blog and follow the links to my site.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

Hey Hades have they actually seen any development out there this season?


No they haven't, but it's not that uncommon to go several years without cyclogenesis occurring there.
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Quoting xcool:
yayy

What you yayying about?
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2250. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
nope

The central pacific has not had any cyclones this year.
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95L is really going to pop once it gets further W into the Caribbean. Intensity is the big ? It could be a strong TS to a major hurricane. Interesting weeks ahead as the GFS and long range CMC show more systems in this region. Fasten your seat belts because the final act of the hurricane season could go out with a bang.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
6:00 AM UTC September 23 2010
====================================

The center of trough of low pressure located about 490 miles south of Molokai continues to move west around 10 MPH over the past 6 hours. Thunderstorms along the east flank of the low moved more slowly.. thus becoming increasingly separated from the center. The coverage and intensity of these thunderstorms has diminished over the past 6 hours as well. Slow development of this feature is possible as it continues to move towards the west at about 10 MPH during the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
There is a LOW chance of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours

---
97C went from high chance of development to low in 12 hours.

Hey Hades have they actually seen any development out there this season?
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Quoting RuBRNded:


But this is the 1st year in a long time that fires are allowed since this summer sucked and fall is hitting the NW as forecast pretty hard.


The only thing my garden has produced is zucchini, snap peas, and maybe corn in a month. everything else was a waste of effort.
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2244. xcool
yayy
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2243. ackee
I thinking 95L will be TD by 11am
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2242. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
6:00 AM UTC September 23 2010
====================================

The center of trough of low pressure located about 490 miles south of Molokai continues to move west around 10 MPH over the past 6 hours. Thunderstorms along the east flank of the low moved more slowly.. thus becoming increasingly separated from the center. The coverage and intensity of these thunderstorms has diminished over the past 6 hours as well. Slow development of this feature is possible as it continues to move towards the west at about 10 MPH during the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
There is a LOW chance of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours

---
97C went from high chance of development to low in 12 hours.
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Quoting JRRP:
out for now

That's all, what happen to the rest of the run?
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2239. nickih
long time lurker...y'all, is That Which Has No Name gonna ruin our holiday? Brunswick County, NC, beach house 10/2-10/9. We can drive in the rain on the second. But, as y'all know, driving in wind would be a problem. Please be gentle. We love our NC beach. Just want to get there. We'll deal with causeway closing or whatever else nature throws. ??? With nervous respect to y'all.

PS - went through the secondary backlash of Ivan and a no-name in 2008 there ... not that that matters.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I hear that!...after the 'cane season I will post some cold weather hunting pics from my trip into the Frank Church Wilderness last year in December. I know it is hard to believe but ...turns out it was cold.


But this is the 1st year in a long time that fires are allowed since this summer sucked and fall is hitting the NW as forecast pretty hard.
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Quoting btwntx08:
consertative kimberlain i see should be 70% sir look at the convection


Nah I agree with his assessment. I think he probably wants to if this convection persists.
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So does anyone have a link to imagery that shows some rotation to 95L?...still a little skeptical.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Dont you dare because it will miss there for sure and then hit Tampa.......LOL

You beat me to it, I was just about to say Tampa is out of the woods! Of course I base my reasoning off this: http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/tampa.htm. Then again this is 2010 so what makes this yr. any different than others. Well we'll soon find out...
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2234. jonelu
Quoting JRRP:
out for now

just like Levi said...its gonna light up in the Carib
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
'cause I'm an ass....you should ignore me.


Hah! You and I may have a lot in common.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh come on. Your voice can't be that bad, can it? :/


cuts diamonds
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Quoting RuBRNded:


Ok, brandon
Quoting KoritheMan:


:)


" got the chicken foot and sacrificial candle burning, chanting in the background, a zombie Donald Duck chanting....."
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still 60%
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 230549
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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2224. JRRP
out for now
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Quoting RuBRNded:


But i have a girlfriend in tampa i can stay with


Ok, brandon
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I guess self restraint and courtesy are dead concepts. Geez, I'm getting old.
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Quoting victoriahurricane:


I'm going to remember this if it ends up hitting Destin lol


:)
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Dont you dare because it will miss there for sure and then hit Tampa.......LOL


But i have a girlfriend in tampa i can stay with
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Yee haw. Time to break out the wind kite.


Areal Flood Watch
Statement as of 8:53 PM CDT on September 22, 2010


... Flood Watch remains in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday evening...

The Flood Watch continues for

* portions of central Upper Michigan and western Upper Michigan... including the following areas... in central Upper
Michigan... Baraga... Dickinson... Iron... Keweenaw... Marquette... northern Houghton and Ontonagon. In western Upper Michigan...
Gogebic and southern Houghton.

* From Thursday evening through Friday evening

* total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected from Thursday evening through Friday morning. Rain will fall very heavily at times... which will increase the flood risk.

* Runoff from this significant rainfall will cause river levels to rise... and may cause flooding to occur along area rivers and low lying areas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.





High Wind Watch
Statement as of 9:52 PM EDT on September 22, 2010


... High wind watch remains in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening...

A high wind watch remains in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

* Expect strong wind gusts to develop Friday afternoon and continue into Friday evening before diminishing overnight.

* North to northwest winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph are possible near the Lake Superior shoreline. Winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are possible across inland areas.

* People should be prepared for the possibility of downed trees and power outages Friday afternoon into Friday night...
especially in areas that were affected by the Labor Day weekend wind storm. In addition... large waves will also be generated late Friday into Friday night possibly causing beach
erosion and minor Lakeshore flooding.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph... or gusts of 58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I do go by the name Mighty Oracle on pretty much every other site besides this one, so I'll see what I can do.

*invokes inherent supernatural power in an attempt to manipulate nature*


Dont you dare because it will miss there for sure and then hit Tampa.......LOL
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I do go by the name Mighty Oracle on pretty much every other site besides this one, so I'll see what I can do.

*invokes inherent supernatural power in an attempt to manipulate nature*


woot, lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.