Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

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Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted Buoy (Maciejewski)
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Uprooted Buoy

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Aye. That's why I generally try and get the people here to stop focusing on long-range forecast tracks. It can be difficult not to worry, I know, but worrying doesn't change anything. And speculating is pretty useless when uncertain is this high.


Uncertain, yes. But still, the GFS has been consistent. I read the cut off low is suppose to stick around over Arkansas for quite a while, allowing Matthew to travel towards the north longer. Not just a dip and exiting trough scenario.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm not saying there won't be a poleward component of motion. That appears to be very likely at this point. I'm just saying the GFS is overdoing it a tad.


And that is the main problem, a La Nina year typically has weak troughs which in turn calls for a warmer South colder North. The GFS usually overdoes troughs (It is the nature of the actual model, why it does that, I don't know). There is also climatology at play. Deep troughs that go all the way down to the Gulf Coast are late October and early November periods according to climatology. At least in this area (FWB, FL), the first cool day happens around Halloween. That is why when I see such a deep trough coming down, I have to be skeptical of that.
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Quoting 1992Andrew:


GFS run is most ominous as well. With that scenario Matthew may hook northeast and then meander off the florida east coast before hooking back west. From what I can tell experts have low confidence. Difficult storm to track seven days out.


Seven days out is even harder to 'track' when it has yet to actually develop.

Give it a few more days and things will come together a bit.
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Quoting 1992Andrew:
Good morning Chicklit-
Vorticity is impressive.


95L is getting itself together. Thing is keeping me awake.

I am going to try to go back to sleep.
It may take just a few hours to get to TD though.
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Quoting 1992Andrew:


GFS run is most ominous as well. With that scenario Matthew may hook northeast and then meander off the florida east coast before hooking back west. From what I can tell experts have low confidence. Difficult storm to track seven days out.


Aye. That's why I generally try and get the people here to stop focusing on long-range forecast tracks. It can be difficult not to worry, I know, but worrying doesn't change anything. And speculating is pretty useless when uncertainty is this high.
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Good morning Chicklit-
Vorticity is impressive.


95L is getting itself together. Thing is keeping me awake.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm not saying there won't be a poleward component of motion. That appears to be very likely at this point. I'm just saying the GFS is overdoing it a tad.


GFS run is most ominous as well. With that scenario Matthew may hook northeast and then meander off the florida east coast before hooking back west. From what I can tell experts have low confidence. Difficult storm to track seven days out.
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good morning, checking on 95L



as you all have said, finding its center of circulation and strengthening.
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In the short run it's important to ascertain whether the storm will crash into honduras/nicaragua and meander over land. Strangely enough, the GFS is forecasting another entity forming south of cuba which is suppose to merge with future Matthew.
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 230836
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010
500 AM AST THU SEP 23 2010

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF LISA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM PRIMARILY
NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT GENERALLY LACK MUCH
ORGANIZATION. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LISA HAS ALSO BECOME
MORE ASYMMETRIC DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS AND SEEMS PARTIALLY
INVOLVED WITH A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 0600 UTC HAVE
DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THESE
ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. AS LISA ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEARBY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK ARE MARGINALLY WARM...THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS NOT
ESPECIALLY HIGH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER A SOMEWHAT
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND 48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF LISA IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND RESULT IN WEAKENING WHICH
COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.

LISA HAS CONTINUED MOVING EASTWARD IN A WEAK WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/04. AS THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPARTING THIS MOTION LIFTS OUT DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF LISA WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL/
HWRF CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT OUTLIERS AS A RESULT OF WEAKER RIDGING.
THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...DOWNPLAYING THE
CONTRIBUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.7N 29.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.1N 29.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 18.5N 29.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 19.1N 30.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 20.0N 31.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 21.5N 32.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 23.5N 35.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 26.0N 38.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Quoting 1992Andrew:
There's a dip in temperatures all across the south with that forecast trough. Don't think its just the GFS predicting an unseasonal front. NOGAPS and Euro models also push teh storm northward .


I'm not saying there won't be a poleward component of motion. That appears to be very likely at this point. I'm just saying the GFS is overdoing it a tad.
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There's a dip in temperatures all across the south with that forecast trough. Don't think its just the GFS predicting an unseasonal front. NOGAPS and Euro models also push teh storm northward .
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Quoting Grecojdw:
Why can't the rest of the time this forum have sane people. The wishcasters were wishcasting so much that it was irritating earlier today. Everyone of them were directing this invest towards their direction. It's only going to get worse tomorrow:0


I agree completely. I'm fearful sometimes at posting any question, especially when things are getting weird and furious. Been lurking for years but posting becomes problematic when 1) the bullies are on board and not being moderated, and 2) trusted sources of information, are mostly absent until they see a break in the fray...and I'm not talking about you know who.

Anyway, that's my two cents. Just finished skyping with family in NZ...they just had a wicked system come through two days ago. Must go. Thanks for the answers and commentary.
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Quoting 1992Andrew:


The GFS has been consistent with a trough ejecting a cut off low. Trough is suppose to go as far as south as north florida. Accuweather temps for Tallahassee on the 29th is ten degrees cooler than tomorrow's.


I am with you on this I was just passing on what the "buz" was on arounf there. I got home after 11pm and oddly the new 12z hwrf depicted what "some" of their thought were. Either way, a better handle should be had once the models are initialized with a closed low (depression.
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Quoting 1992Andrew:


The GFS has been consistent with a trough ejecting a cut off low. Trough is suppose to go as far as south as north florida. Accuweather temps for Tallahassee on the 29th is ten degrees cooler than tomorrow's.


It's very possible the GFS is overdoing the strength and amplitude of this trough, given not only the time of year, but also because the GFS has a known poleward bias due to constantly predicting strong baroclinic systems.

Then there's the upward MJO, which appears poised to return to our basin soon, which typically favors less troughing.
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Quoting barotropic:


Well I guess there are no mexicans on this board cause no one is calling for a a track across to mexico like some of the forecasters at the NHC were suggesting last night when I stopped by and visited (they are doubtful of the depth of the trough being depicted by the models .


The GFS has been consistent with a trough ejecting a cut off low. Trough is suppose to go as far as south as north florida. Accuweather temps for Tallahassee on the 29th is ten degrees cooler than tomorrow's.
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Quoting Grecojdw:
Why can't the rest of the time this forum have sane people. The wishcasters were wishcasting so much that it was irritating earlier today. Everyone of them were directing this invest towards their direction. It's only going to get worse tomorrow:0


Well I guess there are no mexicans on this board cause no one is calling for a a track across to mexico like some of the forecasters at the NHC were suggesting last night when I stopped by and visited (they are doubtful of the depth of the trough being depicted by the models .
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Quoting barotropic:


LOL......where on earth are you getting these percentages from and based on what??


From my own head, based on climatology, model trends, and my expectations of that front making it through LA and acting as a road block to anything coming W of Mobile.

Anthony
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 206
Quoting Grecojdw:
Why can't the rest of the time this forum have sane people. The wishcasters were wishcasting so much that it was irritating earlier today. Everyone of them were directing this invest towards their direction. It's only going to get worse tomorrow:0


LOL....+10
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2389. leo305
95L should become a depression by 11.. 5 am is also a possibility but.. I doubt it since the NHC doesn't have enough information to validate classifying it a TD
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Why can't the rest of the time this forum have sane people. The wishcasters were wishcasting so much that it was irritating earlier today. Everyone of them were directing this invest towards their direction. It's only going to get worse tomorrow:0
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Quoting reedzone:


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.



Okay. Thanks. I was thinking that if 95L were dawdling around near Haiti, well, not good. I'll get better at looking these things up but I'm just learning my way around :)
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Reed -

Have any idea on how strong the cut off low ejected from the trough will be?
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Quoting AnthonyJKenn:
So, right now, we can say that anyone from SE LA (Grand Isle/NOLA/Mouth of the Miss. River) to the Keys/FL Straits/Miami-Ft.Lauderdale area should remain abreast of the situation and prepare to take action if needed.

Or, to put it in probability percentages:

Morgan City - NOLA/Grand Isle?Mouth of Miss. River: <5%
NOLA - Mobile: 5 - 10%
Mobile - Pensacola: 10 - 15%
Pensacola to Panama City: 15 - 25%
Panama City to Tampa Bay: 25 - 35%
Tampa Bay to Key West: 35 - 40%
Keys to Miami: 40 - 50%
E of Miami/Bahamas: 30 - 40%

The dreaded "cone of uncertainity" would probably stretch from Mobile to the Keys, with possible expansion west to Grand Isle (probably unlikely) and east to the Bahamas. (And possibly later on, to the east coast of FL/GA/SC/NC, too.)


Anthony



LOL......where on earth are you getting these percentages from and based on what??
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Latest...

""
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting bcycsailor:


I'm wondering...do you know the forward speed? Is there one? Sorry, just got on an hour ago..


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:
So, right now, we can say that anyone from SE LA (Grand Isle/NOLA/Mouth of the Miss. River) to the Keys/FL Straits/Miami-Ft.Lauderdale area should remain abreast of the situation and prepare to take action if needed.

Or, to put it in probability percentages:

Morgan City - NOLA/Grand Isle?Mouth of Miss. River: <5%
NOLA - Mobile: 5 - 10%
Mobile - Pensacola: 10 - 15%
Pensacola to Panama City: 15 - 25%
Panama City to Tampa Bay: 25 - 35%
Tampa Bay to Key West: 35 - 40%
Keys to Miami: 40 - 50%
E of Miami/Bahamas: 30 - 40%

The dreaded "cone of uncertainity" would probably stretch from Mobile to the Keys, with possible expansion west to Grand Isle (probably unlikely) and east to the Bahamas. (And possibly later on, to the east coast of FL/GA/SC/NC, too.)


Anthony



I wouldn't put numbers on it till cyclone genesis occurs. Place your percentages around the 5pm time period. It might be a depression by then. So just figure an area roughly from NO to the Keys over to Miami should monitor the situation.
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Quoting reedzone:


I feel 95L is on the verge of TD status right now. The banding has gotten more apparent and convection organizing quite well. If the trends continue, advisories may be initialized by 11 a.m.


I'm wondering...do you know the forward speed? Is there one? Sorry, just got on an hour ago..
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Quoting traumaboyy:


First year I have ever bought hay for my horses in September....usually mid to late October. But the grass just does not grow without rain for some crazy reason!!


It's been crazy. We gave up on everything we planted - sometimes watering just isn't enough. Everything that was seeds just never came up, or if they did they lasted a week or two. We seemed to go from cold to roasting in a week. Weird year, for sure.

Reed - I'm glad to see that you used a term I can relate to and understand re: time for TD status. People earlier were referring to something they called "5am". I'm not sure what that is... ;-)
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Reminds me of a typhoon trying to wind up. This could be a massive storm. The Caribbean and GOM better hope these bundles of energy aren't going to do this one after another during the month of October. The final act of the 2010 season could be quite terrifying for this region.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907


I feel 95L is on the verge of TD status right now. The banding has gotten more apparent and convection organizing quite well. If the trends continue, advisories may be initialized by 11 a.m. However, I wouldn't be surprised that they issued a special advisory around 8 a.m. due to it being close to land.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Yup, same here. Our average September rainfall is 6.14" but so far we have gotten a whopping 0.15" - and that was on two separate days.


First year I have ever bought hay for my horses in September....usually mid to late October. But the grass just does not grow without rain for some crazy reason!!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


ROFL.....the truth if I ever heard it...we have made it a month with no appreciable rain.


Yup, same here. Our average September rainfall is 6.14" but so far we have gotten a whopping 0.15" - and that was on two separate days.
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


I got here in '89 so I guess that one was before my time. Had to count on somebody else's record-keeping. Looks like they missed one.

As a side note, if that ugly purple line that xcool posted verifies Marianna will probably see very little rain. As dry as it is around here, the ground will actively and aggressively suck all moisture from the storm before it ever makes it ashore.


ROFL.....the truth if I ever heard it...we have made it a month with no appreciable rain.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Don't forget Kate please...November storm 1985..between pc and mexico beach..blew two oaks over on house and no power for 6 days!!


I got here in '89 so I guess that one was before my time. Had to count on somebody else's record-keeping. Looks like they missed one.

As a side note, if that ugly purple line that xcool posted verifies Marianna will probably see very little rain. As dry as it is around here, the ground will actively and aggressively suck all moisture from the storm before it ever makes it ashore.
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So, right now, we can say that anyone from SE LA (Grand Isle/NOLA/Mouth of the Miss. River) to the Keys/FL Straits/Miami-Ft.Lauderdale area should remain abreast of the situation and prepare to take action if needed.

Or, to put it in probability percentages:

Morgan City - NOLA/Grand Isle?Mouth of Miss. River: <5%
NOLA - Mobile: 5 - 10%
Mobile - Pensacola: 10 - 15%
Pensacola to Panama City: 15 - 25%
Panama City to Tampa Bay: 25 - 35%
Tampa Bay to Key West: 35 - 40%
Keys to Miami: 40 - 50%
E of Miami/Bahamas: 30 - 40%

The dreaded "cone of uncertainity" would probably stretch from Mobile to the Keys, with possible expansion west to Grand Isle (probably unlikely) and east to the Bahamas. (And possibly later on, to the east coast of FL/GA/SC/NC, too.)


Anthony

Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 206
2 cents worth before I turn into nightie night. System appears to be a lot more organized than some expected. A little north also, so if it's not your night shift, relax and see what happens tomorrow.
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95L just needed to pull away form Venezuela. It's getting ready to take off. It is consolidating and is starting to have a nice spin to it. This could be a very big storm. Look at those shrimp tails...

""
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting CaptnDan142:
Panama City has a pretty mild record when it comes to hurricanes, compared to some other places around here.

1877 115mph Oct 2nd
1896 direct hit by hurricane july 7th causes heavy damage 90mph
1924 sept 15th 75mph,
1929 sept 30th 100mph press 28.80 heavy coastal damage
1936 july a storm surge of 6 ft bar 28.47 in a cat 3
1950 aug 30th gusts to 98mph rainfall=14.96 inches heavy flooding
1953 florence sept 26thsustained winds of 87mph while just west of here,press 29.35
1972 Agnes 85mph July 19th
1975 sept 23rd hurricane Eloise hits just west of here with 130mph winds.Winds here were gusting over 130mph &a 16 ft storm surge caused very heavy dmage
1994 t.s beryl hit with 50mph winds bar 29.59 4 ft storm surge
1995 opal oct 4th 125mph winds hit just west area has bad damage when it hit ft walton bch 50 homes destroyed in mexico bch
1998 hurricane Earl hits in early sept with 80mph winds moving from s.w fast causes minor to moderate damage here.

Source


Don't forget Kate please...November storm 1985..between pc and mexico beach..blew two oaks over on house and no power for 6 days!!
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2366. xcool


here we go
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Quoting Grecojdw:


personally these models have been shifting wildly in terms of the strength of the trough. the problem is that strong troughs usually don't occur till mid-October that far South. They can't really figure it out until they find out the relative weakness and strength of the trough versus the genesis of the storm. We will know more about the movement in roughly a day and a half to two days.



Ah, I see. Up north here, we are usually at the "top" end of those troughs. I guess once the Jet moves more southerly, the models are searching to get a handle on it until the trough extends that far south. thx.
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Speaking of little monsters, Invest 95L in the Caribbean is getting it's act together fast this A.M. .... very fast ....

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2363. xcool


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Quoting bcycsailor:


Thanks. So, Charley hit a trough at a crucial moment...and if the current troughs are predicted to be weak, steering currents are not going to affect the developing system to such a dramatic degree I guess. Hmm. Appreciate your response.


personally these models have been shifting wildly in terms of the strength of the trough. the problem is that strong troughs usually don't occur till mid-October that far South. They can't really figure it out until they find out the relative weakness and strength of the trough versus the genesis of the storm. We will know more about the movement in roughly a day and a half to two days.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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