Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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2942. cirrocumulus
4:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
06 Dynamic Model Runs:



The runs make it look like 95L is going to make it into the gulf. Some models are starting to hedge north.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
2941. CaneHunter031472
1:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting reedzonemyhero:
What a great year for US! Troughs have picked everything up along the eastern seaboard and very strong high pressure has forced everything in the Gulf/Caribbean West away from US. This appears to be the case with 95L as well as most of the models are trending towards the mountains of Central America:-)


I would not be too sure just yet, but I sure hope you are right. The same systems that were pulling CV storms away from the US can also Pull caribean systems towrds the US. The Ridge that protects the GOMEX is constantly eroded by those same systems. The only difference is that this time we have more Caribean systems forming. It is just a matter of timing when the ridge will be eroded and where the hurricane is. If everything match you can have a direct hit anywere from TX to FL which is a bad thing.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 199
2940. Neapolitan
1:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
An interesting feature I bring up only for curiosity's sake, and not because there's any chance of regeneration: has anyone noticed the remnants of Julia still spinning around the Atlantic? The RGB wide shot clearly shows her COC at around 33.0N/38.5W, or a thousand or so miles NNW of Lisa. She's got good low-level circulation, but some very hefty shear is ripping off what tiny bit of convection she can produce and smearing it into a cirrus plume several hundred miles to her south. Strange to think that she and Igor were close to kissing last week, but now he's off to visit Santa's workshop while she's headed toward the Mediterranean... ;-)

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
2939. sammywammybamy
1:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
2938. reedzonemyhero
1:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
What a great year for US! Troughs have picked everything up along the eastern seaboard and very strong high pressure has forced everything in the Gulf/Caribbean West away from US. This appears to be the case with 95L as well as most of the models are trending towards the mountains of Central America:-)
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
2937. CaneHunter031472
1:28 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting Cotillion:
It couldn't be Wilma track entirely, anyway.

That storm formed just off Jamaica.


True, but there is a posibility. I suggest that From Louisiana TX border to Florida people should keep an eye on this one. I would not be surprised if Mississipi gets hit by this, so Im looking at my insurance papers just in case.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 199
2936. myway
1:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


I just worry about the boy who cried wolf syndrome with him. What if there actually is a CAT 5 barreling down on Florida and people just think he's still playing...?


Most of us that live in Florida will listen to the NHC and OEM for decision making. Anyone who has been on this blog for any time is aware of the people (several) who continue to preach Florida events as soon as there is one model or condition that could even remotely make a strike possible.

For the people that have not lived in a hurricane zone for very long, please do not make life decisions based on the opinion voiced on any blog. Yoou should follow the direction of the NHC and your local OEM
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 450
2935. scott39
1:26 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
2000-2009 Sept/Oct GulfCoast TCs landfalls FL. WestCoast--1

N/NE GulfCoast--6
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6881
2934. cat5hurricane
1:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
New Blog
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
2933. Gearsts
1:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
I like that alot. I can actually see that.
The models arent really developing this until it gets south of jamaica.Vort is really increasing!
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1948
2932. sammywammybamy
1:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
I like that alot. I can actually see that.


lol
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
2931. cat5hurricane
1:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:
I like that alot. I can actually see that. Leaning more toward the former though.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
2930. GeoffreyWPB
1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
AL, 95, 2010092206, 125N, 675W, 25, 1009, DB
AL, 95, 2010092212, 125N, 694W, 25, 1009, DB
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11398
2929. cat5hurricane
1:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting coffeecrusader:
I believe 95L will be a all or nothing storm. It will either dissipate over Central America or it is stays over water, become a Cat 3-5 storm and threaten the Gulf Coast (most likely Florida somewhere between Miami and Pensacola). Any thoughts?
I like that alot. I can actually see that.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
2928. kimoskee
1:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Met Service of Jamaica

NEWS RELEASE
September 22, 2010 – 6:00 a.m.

*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL PARISHES ***


The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for all parishes effective until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means flooding is possible and citizens are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further News Releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a warning is issued.

An Area of Low Pressure is currently generating unstable weather over most of the Central Caribbean. The disturbance is expected to continue moving westward and should continue to affect the weather over Jamaica.

Currently, Satellite Imagery indicates a large area of showers with embedded thunderstorm across the central Caribbean. RADAR imagery shows some outbreaks of showers and vigorous thunderstorms along and off the south east coasts of Jamaica.

The forecast is for increasingly cloudy conditions with continued outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms particularly over eastern parishes this morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity should spread to the west later today. This is expected to persist over the island into Thursday morning as the system moves south of the island, then into the western Caribbean. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for all parishes.

Fishers and other marine interests are being advised to exercise caution as strong, gusty winds are likely in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

rar
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
2927. coffeecrusader
1:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
I believe 95L will be a all or nothing storm. It will either dissipate over Central America or it is stays over water, become a Cat 3-5 storm and threaten the Gulf Coast (most likely Florida somewhere between Miami and Pensacola). Any thoughts?
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
2926. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
2925. scott39
1:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
06 Dynamic Model Runs:

that trend would be good for a weaker TC. Now the GOM needs to bring its boxing Gloves out!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6881
2924. cat5hurricane
1:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting Gearsts:
But this is a wave so it wont take that long to develop.
It shouldn't, but I'm just not impressed w/ current imagery. I was pitching for him to become a TD later today, but don't think that'll happen till late tmrw evening at the earliest, at this point.
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2923. GeoffreyWPB
1:15 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
06 Dynamic Model Runs:

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2922. scott39
1:13 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


I just worry about the boy who cried wolf syndrome with him. What if there actually is a CAT 5 barreling down on Florida and people just think he's still playing...?
Unless they are 5 or under they would know better. Not a good example of cried wolf story! LOL
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2921. sammywammybamy
1:13 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
95L Already has a Broad Circulation.. Once it Consalidates and Because its soo Close to land.. the Minute this thing pops up more convection and they find 30mph winds it will become a td
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
2919. divdog
1:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Most of the Models are taking it through the Yuctan Channel and up into Florida or Cuba
not true .. see post 2906
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
2918. PcolaDan
1:11 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link radar from netherland antilles


Looks like some spinup may be starting.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2917. Gearsts
1:11 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Alex and Karl both waited to spin up right before land. 95L probably wont be any different. IMO I dont think this one is going to Mexico or Texas. The weaker it stays though it will go farther W into the GOM, which I think would put a landfall farther N than E. IMHO
But this is a wave so it wont take that long to develop.
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2916. sammywammybamy
1:11 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


This Post has the models
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
2915. cat5hurricane
1:10 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
He'll definitely spin up much later in the stage like Alex & Karl. How soon & how much he intensifies thereafter will ultimately determine his fate after docking in Central America. With the rugged terrain & topography there, he could die off there & just his remnants will be pulled north.

Afterall, we do need some good rain in SC, just not hurricane conditions!!
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 6939
2914. BLee2333
1:10 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
I would't discount the possibility of future TCs following a similar path simply because Matthew would be churning up the deeper colder waters in his path.

The currents in that area are VERY strong and VERY warm. This should quickly erase any sign he was there in the SSTs.

As a matter of fact, if he sits his butt off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras for a few days, he'll be sitting right over one of the strongest of these currents. This will essentially spoon feed him all the warm water he needs...



Member Since: January 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
2913. MiamiThreater
1:09 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:
06z nogaps heading NE at the end of its run.Link


The link stays blank on my PC,a Adrian
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
2912. scott39
1:09 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:


12:00Z
The models are picking up on a weaker storm in the Carribean.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6881
2911. FSUCOOPman
1:09 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



That guy is a booger-eating fool. No one should ever respond to his posts.
Clarity edit. The insult is directed at apocalypse, not Goldenpixie.


I just worry about the boy who cried wolf syndrome with him. What if there actually is a CAT 5 barreling down on Florida and people just think he's still playing...?
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2910. RidingTheStormOut
1:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Happy Equinox my friends.
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2909. sammywammybamy
1:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane:


12:00Z


The Black , Purple and Red Model are the most relaible
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
2908. hurricane23
1:07 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
06z nogaps heading NE at the end of its run.Link
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2907. Cotillion
1:07 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
It couldn't be Wilma track entirely, anyway.

That storm formed just off Jamaica.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2906. cat5hurricane
1:06 PM GMT on September 22, 2010


12:00Z
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2905. sammywammybamy
1:06 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
I Say 95L will become a TD Thursday Night.
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
2904. scott39
1:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Is GFS forecasting a stronger TC with its turn to the N sooner?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6881
2903. southernstorm
1:05 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiThreater:


link plz.


Google stormw to find his blog. Watching 95L from South Mississippi.
Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
2902. sammywammybamy
1:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:


Unfortunatly the models have trended towards the GFS idea of the deepening CONUS trough picking this thing up. Still plenty of time to watch but its certainly possbile this system could track in a similar fashion to that of wilmas. Conditions also look great across the NW caribbean sea were some serious deeping may occur if it doesn't get to tangled with central america.


Yea look at all that Hot water in the Carribean...

Could be a Major Hurricane...
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
2901. scott39
1:03 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Most of the current models are taking to the west into the Yucatan/Central America area and not "through" the Yucatan Channel.....Merely commenting on the general proposition that a weak system will trend west and that it would have to spin up quickly before the models would start trending more to the North.
Alex and Karl both waited to spin up right before land. 95L probably wont be any different. IMO I dont think this one is going to Mexico or Texas. The weaker it stays though it will go farther W into the GOM, which I think would put a landfall farther N than E. IMHO
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6881
2900. MiamiThreater
1:03 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Poof.


Likewise, ......,as the old saying would go in SPN, ''No hay mas ciego que el que no quiera ver''.
Member Since: September 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
2899. stormwatcherCI
1:03 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiThreater:


link plz.
u have mail
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2898. sammywammybamy
1:03 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
weathermanwannabe:

I Think that 95L is a Significant threat to Cuba and Florida.

It Seems like it might take the same track as Hurricane W Did in 2005.
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
2897. NotJFV
1:03 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

Member Since: August 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
2896. jason2010xxxx
1:02 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 1561
2895. hurricane23
1:02 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Adrian we looking at a Southwest florida hit?

Like a Wilma Track.

TIA


Unfortunatly the models have trended towards the GFS idea of the deepening CONUS trough picking this thing up. Still plenty of time to watch but its certainly possbile this system could track in a similar fashion to that of wilmas. Conditions also look great across the NW caribbean sea were some serious deeping may occur if it doesn't get to tangled with central america.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
2894. islander101010
1:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
a td this afternoon this is no karl
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4866
2893. sammywammybamy
1:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Most of the Models are taking it through the Yuctan Channel and up into Florida or Cuba
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
2892. weathermanwannabe
1:00 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiThreater:


Correct, however, those are only the ''short'' term runs, the long term runs, unanimously take it north. Where are you falling to see this, sir, if I may ask?


Poof.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9323

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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