Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Dude, this is JFV. He wants this storm. Ignore the troll.



aargghhhhh##$^88^%^$.......I fell for it again...again.!!! Uhhhhhh...I am going to bed. Have a great late shift you guys.:)
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Did you get distracted by the OJ simpson trial, I have heard that the OJ simpson trial took attention away from Opal while it was blowing up in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward the panhandle.


I was at work while it was brewing in the BOC. Info was pretty sketchy, since we were in Port Fourchon and TV reception wasn't all that great.

After we evacuated the rig and got everyone ashore and safe, I was waiting for crew change the next morning as scheduled. About mid afternoon, the office called and said for the two of us that lived in FL didn't need to wait for relief - just get going. When we left, we figured we had plenty of time to get home.

The other guy was my deckhand, he was following me across I-10. About Mobile, he started flashing his headlights. I pulled over thinking he had something wrong with his truck. He came running up and asked if I had heard the radio. Viva la CD player, I hadn't. That was when I found out that Opal was a speed demon.

I got in around 4am and hoped that my wife and girls were at our apartment. We were in the process of moving at the time and I had no way of being really sure where they would be. Worst part is, they had sent me the paperwork for the lease on the new home, and I didn't even really know where it was. I was gone for 4 weeks outta 6, I didn't care where we lived, as long as they liked it. lol

I woke my wife up, she thought I was nuts. Told her we need to start looking at getting in one house or the other and be ready, the storm would be there that afternoon. After she realized I was serious, and we listened to John Hope tell us we were the apparent target, we bailed outta the apartment and headed out.

By the time we started getting people and pets packed up to go, I had been up for the better part of 48 hours. 14 of those hours I was driving the boat and doing the evac, then the 9 hour drive home to begin another evac.

So yeah, Opal had a couple surprises for us - But O.J. wasn't part of the equation.
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Quoting Grecojdw:


Either your being funny or a Florida wishcaster. I am not quite sure yet. I am actually repeating what Dr.M said on his hurricane haven program so you can debate that if you want:0


Dude, this is JFV. He wants this storm. Ignore the troll.
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Damn, you're up late.
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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/Irene_1999_track.png

Hurricane Irene(1999) ??????
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Quoting MiamiThreater:


one model does not signify a pattern shift, OK? This will only end up being a SF trheater and that's it, -__-.


Either your being funny or a Florida wishcaster. I am not quite sure yet. I am actually repeating what Dr.M said on his hurricane haven program so you can debate that if you want:0
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Just a thought if 95L ends up in the Gulf of Mexico. The only thing I have taken away from CNN's Chad Myers (me coughing sarcastically) is when he said "once its in the Gulf of Mexico, it has to hit something"

I thought it really funny when a storm pops up, CNN plays that clip "once its in the Gulf of Mexico, it has to hit something. CNN, your hurricane headquarters."

More like "what Chad Myers blow up! CNN, your hurricane headquarters."
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
What? Who was I rude to? If it was you or to anyone I apologize. It's just a misunderstanding. Perhaps a lil' joke taken the wrong way. These things can happen as different people read the same words differently..
.
.
If you'd like I can direct you back to 5 posts, today alone, where someone announced that they were posting for the first time, and in 5 of the 5 cases I was the first one to welcome them. In 4 of the 5 the only one.


I haven't seen you being rude to anyone, really...at least not to anyone that didn't deserve it, but I can see what he's saying, in general; I've been here for a while and nothing irks me more than a newb talking down to someone in here...

How is everyonwe by the way?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
144hr 00z CMC has it big and right over Cancun and moving N. I think Euro needs to be watched. Once it locks on it is consistent and rarely off too much.


What about after Cancun?

By the way early this afternoon, when I saw 95L popped up like 92L (pre-Karl) did, I was like, "man, another Karl? Another storm for Mexico after Alex, TD2, and Karl?!" Then I saw the models hooking it northward. S Mexico doesn't need another storm, but unfortunately a turn north comes at the sacrifice for others. But S Mexico need a break! It would be best for 95L to not form at all.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


You say LA? Could the left shift be because 95L is haulin' west? Now the west case scenario is LA? What's the east case scneario now?


The model he posted shifted to Louisiana. That could be due to the fast movement and something with the front/weakness/trough trajectory change. But as we have seen before, those bad boys swing the other direction when just a slight variation of atmospheric conditions come into fruition.
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Good night all

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16295
2575. palmpt
Quoting reedzone:
(sigh) I wish people on here would take me seriously and not a joke or troll. Thank you so much scottsvb for ruining my reputation on here.


Reedzone... Your reputation is good... Let it go. You have many friends here. And we appreciate your point of view.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


RI (rapid intensification) is so frustrating. So after Opal, do the officials now have to issue evacuation orders for something like a strong tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane becuase of our lack of skill in foreseeing some RI events?


There still pretty lax about just a Cat 1. Only the military, since we have three bases in our area, are pretty on to it about evacuating early. The local authorities don't budge until it enters the two realm. Though, when it comes to the barrier islands, I think with a cat 1 they close the bridges when winds reach 55mph so you can't get on the barrier island but they still don't mandatory evac the island until a cat 2 typically. But we really hadn't had anything bad hear since Ivan, so with Katrina as a model, I don't know how strict it is now.
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Quoting Grecojdw:


95L is really going back and forth right now. What a difference a few hours can make with those models huh...


You say LA? Could the left shift be because 95L is haulin' west? Now the west case scenario is LA? What's the east case scneario now?
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2571. xcool
yeah
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2570. leo305
Quoting hurricane23:


OoO
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Quoting Grecojdw:


It was literally 11pm, "ehh...the storms not going to be that bad..will make our usual preparations for a hurricane while we watch the OJ coverage," to 7am "whaaattttt!!!! 150mph...half a day to landfall...lets go lets go lets go." RI was insane with that storm and the authorities at the time did not head evacuation calls very early. I think they have learned their lessons now.


RI (rapid intensification) is so frustrating. So after Opal, do the officials now have to issue evacuation orders for something like a strong tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane becuase of our lack of skill in foreseeing some RI events?
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Quoting xcool:


240 00z CMC Global Forecast Mode head back to la


95L is really going back and forth right now. What a difference a few hours can make with those models huh...
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2567. flsky
2am TWO
Link
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2566. xcool


240 00z CMC Global Forecast Mode head back to la
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Quoting flsky:
Link
2am update


2 AM update shows 95L haulin' westward, its already at the longitudes of Puerto Rico. Satellite imagery concurs.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Man, I am glad you made it out of there. I'd never wish for anyone to have to panic evacuate.

By the way, was it like, "hmmm OJ Simpson. Two hours later: what the heck, Opal?! Oh my gosh, I gotta get out of here. Oh no, traffic!"


It was literally 11pm, "ehh...the storms not going to be that bad..will make our usual preparations for a hurricane while we watch the OJ coverage," to 7am "whaaattttt!!!! 150mph...half a day to landfall...lets go lets go lets go." RI was insane with that storm and the authorities at the time did not head evacuation calls very early. I think they have learned their lessons now.
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Quoting reedzone:


I wasn't playing around or wishcasting when I said the pattern favored Alex to hit Northern Mexico, perhaps Southern Texas. If Earl didn't take that east jog after reaching 75W, it would have made landfall on Cape Hatteras, NC. Last year, I had my reasons on predicting Bill to clip New England, in which it did. Danny, I was off on the characteristic, but the storm did move up the East Coast as a Noreaster. Ida did in fact become close to a Perfect Storm as it merged with the Hybrid low, and 96E from the Pacific. I have my reasons, back my statements up as much as I can. Yet, I still get called the biggest wishcaster on here, some have said I am worse then JFV. If I am that bad, why have I never gotten banned on here? I know my limits, and if I go far, I know to stop. Though it'll never stop me from making predictions, opinions on where the storms could go. Alot of people look up to me here in my town when it comes to the weather. When they had questions, they came to me and I gave them my opinions. I remember (lol) drawing the track of Rita to the borderline of LA/TX. It's a passion I've had for 10 years, still going, as well as music. I learn more everyday. :)


Don't worry dude a lot of people like to read their typing on this forum. Wow if your a guess caster, I can't imagine all of those people that were on earlier in the evening already making exact pinpoint landfalls for future Matthew way before cyclone-genesis. It was crazy reading all those statements. Its like they really want those storms to hit them. I just like reading peoples personal experience and learning the science of TC's, but many really are making these outrages guesses of exact storm track because they really want a storm to hit them no matter how strong the storm is. Your not one of them, but it is a shame that many do that. I wish I could mention names (I really want to mention names), but I'm not going to open up that can of worms.
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2562. flsky
Link
2am update
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btw.. reedzone NEVER said N Mexico.. he always said Louisiana or NE Tx until just before landfall he changed it to SE Tx near the Mexico boarder and threw a FIT at people telling him to stop wishcasting it into Texas. Well it ended up 150 miles south of the boarder!
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Quoting Grecojdw:


Heck yeah it did. It literally went from a 3 to either a strong 4 or a 5. It became a flee for your lives type situation where a 150k at least in my area fleeing from the storm down one road because everybody else from the other counties were using their own evac routes. We could leave it got too late. By the time we were going to leave, the leading edge of the storm came in. There were people stranded along the evac route highway 85 right near Eglin AFB right when the storm started. The military actually began getting people out of their cars and taking then to the base when that chaos occurred. It was a crazy situation indeed:0


Man, I am glad you made it out of there. I'd never wish for anyone to have to panic evacuate.

By the way, was it like, "hmmm OJ Simpson. Two hours later: what the heck, Opal?! Oh my gosh, I gotta get out of here. Oh no, traffic!"
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Did you get distracted by the OJ simpson trial, I have heard that the OJ simpson trial took attention away from Opal while it was blowing up in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward the panhandle. Did Opal take you by surprise?

Story about Opal and OJ Simpson:
http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=23421


Heck yeah it did. It literally went from a 3 to either a strong 4 or a 5. It became a flee for your lives type situation where a 150k at least in my area fleeing from the storm down one road because everybody else from the other counties were using their own evac routes. We could leave it got too late. By the time we were going to leave, the leading edge of the storm came in. There were people stranded along the evac route highway 85 right near Eglin AFB right when the storm started. The military actually began getting people out of their cars and taking then to the base when that chaos occurred. It was a crazy situation indeed:0
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Reed is cool because his comments are rich in content.
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2557. JRRP
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Reedzone is probably the biggest guesscaster in Wunderground
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2555. flsky
Quoting reedzone:


I wasn't playing around or wishcasting when I said the pattern favored Alex to hit Northern Mexico, perhaps Southern Texas. If Earl didn't take that east jog after reaching 75W, it would have made landfall on Cape Hatteras, NC. Last year, I had my reasons on predicting Bill to clip New England, in which it did. Danny, I was off on the characteristic, but the storm did move up the East Coast as a Noreaster. Ida did in fact become close to a Perfect Storm as it merged with the Hybrid low, and 96E from the Pacific. I have my reasons, back my statements up as much as I can. Yet, I still get called the biggest wishcaster on here, some have said I am worse then JFV. If I am that bad, why have I never gotten banned on here? I know my limits, and if I go far, I know to stop. Though it'll never stop me from making predictions, opinions on where the storms could go. Alot of people look up to me here in my town when it comes to the weather. When they had questions, they came to me and I gave them my opinions. I remember (lol) drawing the track of Rita to the borderline of LA/TX. It's a passion I've had for 10 years, still going, as well as music. I learn more everyday. :)

You're freaking out, kid. Take a breath.
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Quoting Grecojdw:


Why? You've always been serious on this forum for as long as I have been on. (I actually have been on since 05 but for some reason my original handle was canceled for some reason, never resolved the issue but I know it wasn't a PB.


I wasn't playing around or wishcasting when I said the pattern favored Alex to hit Northern Mexico, perhaps Southern Texas. If Earl didn't take that east jog after reaching 75W, it would have made landfall on Cape Hatteras, NC. Last year, I had my reasons on predicting Bill to clip New England, in which it did. Danny, I was off on the characteristic, but the storm did move up the East Coast as a Noreaster. Ida did in fact become close to a Perfect Storm as it merged with the Hybrid low, and 96E from the Pacific. I have my reasons, back my statements up as much as I can. Yet, I still get called the biggest wishcaster on here, some have said I am worse then JFV. If I am that bad, why have I never gotten banned on here? I know my limits, and if I go far, I know to stop. Though it'll never stop me from making predictions, opinions on where the storms could go. Alot of people look up to me here in my town when it comes to the weather. When they had questions, they came to me and I gave them my opinions. I remember (lol) drawing the track of Rita to the borderline of LA/TX. It's a passion I've had for 10 years, still going, as well as music. I learn more everyday. :)
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Haven't been across that way in a while on 98. From north of town it was a pretty quick shot across, speed limits loosely interpreted. So all in all, I don't think 1:15 is something I should readily admit to. ;-)

Sure did take a while to get over that way after Ivan though, didn't it? That was crazy. Come to think of it, Opal was a trip too. Hope the shored up roadway holds up next time around. (Which I hope isn't soon)


Did you get distracted by the OJ simpson trial, I have heard that the OJ simpson trial took attention away from Opal while it was blowing up in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward the panhandle. Did Opal take you by surprise?

Story about Opal and OJ Simpson:
http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=23421
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2501. I'll attest to that, Cosmic!

BTW, thanks for the warm welcome! Missed your greeting as I was at work when I posted.

No worries. I'm quite comfortable reading about people making fools of themselves without needing to jump in. I've found quite a bit of valuable information on this blog, and hope to contribute as I learn more about tropical weather.
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Haven't been across that way in a while on 98. From north of town it was a pretty quick shot across, speed limits loosely interpreted. So all in all, I don't think 1:15 is something I should readily admit to. ;-)

Sure did take a while to get over that way after Ivan though, didn't it? That was crazy. Come to think of it, Opal was a trip too. Hope the shored up roadway holds up next time around. (Which I hope isn't soon)


Both Ivan and Opal broke Okaloosa Island into pieces between Destin and FWB. What would normally take no more than 8 or 9 minutes became a 45 minute drive just to get around to Destin. It was truly insane.
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2549. JRRP
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2548. jonelu
The model ensembles dont look good from Florida. Supposed to be in KW Sun-Tue....lousy weather more than likely.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL, models runs are everywhere. Looks like models take this thing northward, the west-case scenario being the Florida panhandle (just west of Pensacola), the east-case scenario being across peninsular Florida and then up the east coast.

Well at least this isn't the 1900s. They thought the Galveston hurricane in 1900 would go up the east coast after Cuba, when in fact it went to Texas! But even since the 1900s, we can't tell where these storms will be a week from now. We've gotten better, but not best.


That would have been scary. To think you were going through a regular storm only to fight for your life. For a modern example, I mentioned earlier about my worse fear was for a Katrina like storm surge situation to happen to Destin-FWB. Opal and Ivan wiped out a lot of the height from our barrier islands so I don;t know what a 30 or 40 ft wall of water would do now. Think about what it could of done in the 1900s.
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Quoting Grecojdw:


...


Haven't been across that way in a while on 98. From north of town it was a pretty quick shot across, speed limits loosely interpreted. So all in all, I don't think 1:15 is something I should readily admit to. ;-)

Sure did take a while to get over that way after Ivan though, didn't it? That was crazy. Come to think of it, Opal was a trip too. Hope the shored up roadway holds up next time around. (Which I hope isn't soon)
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Quoting reedzone:
(sigh) I wish people on here would take me seriously and not a joke or troll. Thank you so much scottsvb for ruining my reputation on here.


Why? You've always been serious on this forum for as long as I have been on. (I actually have been on since 05 but for some reason my original handle was canceled for some reason, never resolved the issue but I know it wasn't a PB.
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Quoting CaptnDan142:


Hour and a quarter west of me.

OK, that's two of us that don't like it. Toss that run out and try again please.


LOL, models runs are everywhere. Looks like models take this thing northward, the west-case scenario being the Florida panhandle (just west of Pensacola), the east-case scenario being across peninsular Florida and then up the east coast.

Well at least this isn't the 1900s. They thought the Galveston hurricane in 1900 would go up the east coast after Cuba, when in fact it went to Texas! But even since the 1900s, we can't tell where these storms will be a week from now. We've gotten better, but not best.
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(sigh) I wish people on here would take me seriously and not a joke or troll. Thank you so much scottsvb for ruining my reputation on here.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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