Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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2692. WxLogic
MLB NWS Starting to introduce some info on the possible tropical system.

"...SLIGHT RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH GFS/ECMWF IN HANDLING
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...BUT
THE 00Z RUN SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...."
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Wxlogic look at the radar link I posted that where the rotation is on the radar.Link
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2690. IKE
10 day GFS...

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2689. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:
We have a LLC near 12.5N 69W based on Shortwave SAT.

I expect changes to be increased from 60 to close to 80% as it moves further away from land (SA)and as it gets more convection going.

Continues to show improvement on its low level 850MB VORT:



and 500MB:

will it slow down and start moving more WNW some?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Neapolitan on the Cimms chart you will also see lower convergence and upper divergence in the same area. with what looks like a high starting to build in from the north.
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2687. IKE
GFS has it moving NE or even ENE at 174 hours.


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2685. WxLogic
Quoting scott39:
Good morning


:)
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2684. scott39
Quoting Chicklit:
The models look farther S with 95L than both Alex and Karl. The not so funny thing is that it will probably be the worst out of both of them, if it tracks like all the models are saying.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
2683. WxLogic
We have a LLC near 12.5N 69W based on Shortwave SAT.

I expect changes to be increased from 60 to close to 80% as it moves further away from land (SA)and as it gets more convection going.

Continues to show improvement on its low level 850MB VORT:



and 500MB:

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2682. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Ike, If 95L does make it into the GOM, I cant help but to keep thinking this maybe an event for you. Im not wishing it on you. It just looks like the trend.


ECMWF and GFS have trended well east and south of here. Can't see it coming up here with a big ULL camped over the SE USA next week...

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Quoting gordydunnot:
Well interesting radar link. Think you will see some rotation in rain bands forming N. of South America Curacao.Link


Definite circulation there. And the 850mb vorticity maps show that cyclonic spin extends up higher than standard radar tilt can see. The problem, is, of course, proximity to land, though 95L will eventually move into more open waters north of Panama, and at the same time begin its more NW path. There's an awful lot of energy down that way, so I'd actually be surprised to see 95L (or likely Matthew by then) destroyed on the Yucatan; it's more probable that he will become somewhat more of a threat than he looks like this morning.

Farther east, Lisa's definitely having issues with shear, as expected, and now the NHC says she'll probably not make it to hurricane status after all. No big surprise there; for every Igor or Earl this season, we've had a Fiona or Gaston. Such is life in the tropics.

There's a nice wad of vorticity several hundred miles to Lisa's east, just offshore Africa and adjacent to the Cape Verde Islands. It'll be interesting to see what happens with this energy over the next few days. There's also another fairly healthy (and slightly cyclonic) wave moving across central Africa, but between it and the Atlantic is about the biggest patch of dry air we've seen in a few months there, a sure signal that the CV season is set to close shop for another year.

Lots to look at, but nothing major. Just the way I like it...
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2679. scott39
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Good Morning, all.
Good morning
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Good Morning, all.
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2677. scott39
Is the possibility still there for 95L to meander in the GOM?
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2676. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning....
Morning...
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2675. WxLogic
Good Morning....
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2674. scott39
Ike, If 95L does make it into the GOM, I cant help but to keep thinking this maybe an event for you. Im not wishing it on you. It just looks like the trend.
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good morning.
dangerous 95L forms JM

SWCaribLoop\

cimssshearmap

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2672. IKE
Latest GFS has 95L making landfall in 84 hours over Honduras....then heading toward Belize and the Yucatan.
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The morning downcasting crew aboard this morning... later
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The outer effects of 95L/ Matthew-to-be being felt along the southern Lesser Antilles this morning. Light gusting winds here over Dominica from before dawn although depression is heading into the Central Caribbean already.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
and Karl only became a ts before hitting land. this could die over Nicaragua or even the Yucatan.


Not likely!
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2668. IKE
Looks like the HPC preliminary has a low east of the NE Yucatan on day 6...then has it move NE, to even ENE, to south of western Cuba on day 7.

GFS and ECMWF seem to agree, on their earlier model runs.
.............................................

post#2666...maybe.
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2667. myway
Quoting all4hurricanes:
and Karl only became a ts before hitting land. this could die over Nicaragua or even the Yucatan.


That is one of the posibilities mentioned by Dr. M. Living in south florida i hope it has a rapid death.
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2666. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Looks like about Monday, based off of the SHIPS.

.................................................

Birmingham,AL. extended....

..NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN UNTIL LATE NIGHT FRI INTO
EARLY SAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. GFS/EURO ARE PRETTY CLOSE
IN AGREEMENT...WITH THE EURO BEING A TAD STRONGER AND FASTER IN
THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING IN ALABAMA. ALL AGREE THAT
MOISTURE WITH INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH FOR TSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS INDICATING OUR FIRST FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH NOT MUCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH INITIALLY AND WILL
MOST LIKELY STALL OUT. A SECOND SYSTEM ACROSS THE C U.S. DIGS SEWD
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. IF THIS
SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE
PUSH TO CLEAR RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND BRING A REAL TASTE OF FALL. IF NOTHING ELSE...HOPEFULLY
WE CAN SAY GOODBYE TO THE UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
Dont you think 95L needs to gain some lattitude and slow down to be influenced by the trough?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You do realize, your doing the same exact thing we all did with 92L, the system that became Karl.
and Karl only became a ts before hitting land. this could die over Nicaragua or even the Yucatan.
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2664. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Ike when do you think 95L will slow down?


Looks like about Monday, based off of the SHIPS.

.................................................

Birmingham,AL. extended....

..NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN UNTIL LATE NIGHT FRI INTO
EARLY SAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. GFS/EURO ARE PRETTY CLOSE
IN AGREEMENT...WITH THE EURO BEING A TAD STRONGER AND FASTER IN
THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING IN ALABAMA. ALL AGREE THAT
MOISTURE WITH INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH FOR TSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS INDICATING OUR FIRST FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH NOT MUCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH INITIALLY AND WILL
MOST LIKELY STALL OUT. A SECOND SYSTEM ACROSS THE C U.S. DIGS SEWD
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. IF THIS
SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE
PUSH TO CLEAR RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND BRING A REAL TASTE OF FALL. IF NOTHING ELSE...HOPEFULLY
WE CAN SAY GOODBYE TO THE UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
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Quoting bird72:
Sorry, but 95l, just poof.


You do realize, your doing the same exact thing we all did with 92L, the system that became Karl.
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2662. scott39
Ike when do you think 95L will slow down?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting bird72:
Sorry, but 95l, just poof.


Heard that before and boom!!
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Well interesting radar link. Think you will see some rotation in rain bands forming N. of South America Curacao.Link
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2659. scott39
Quoting bird72:
Sorry, but 95l, just poof.
Why do you do that?
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2658. IKE
Lisa having issues...

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2657. bird72
Sorry, but 95l, just poof.
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good morning, folks. Just going to pop in very quickly and try to scan the maps without getting steamrolled by the blog family dynamics this morning.

Ike - a couple of those model images imply you should keep an eye to the South - not that you don't do that everyday of the season. :)

Still not seeing anything in the near outlook that might trouble VA...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


lulz we should liek, run for teh hills mirite lol


Yup..... but boss we ain't got narry a hill in south La.
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HPC Preliminary Graphics


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Morning everybody.

I notice some energy is poised just off the coast of Niguaraga / El Salvador again... wonder if that scenario with the Central America crossing storm later impacting somewhere in the GoM is more likely than we might have thought...

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2652. scott39
95L already at 68W! trough-- not for at least 48 hours.
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hopes rule is not as effective in the early part and late part of the hurricane season because the heat low is weaker over northern s. america moisture is really building up in the sw carib. most characters know this already
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2650. scott39
Goodmorning 95L has been going 26mph for the last 6 hours according to tropical atlantic. If he doesnt slow down the trough will be missed. IMO
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2649. zen427
morning
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2648. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE E CARIBBEAN INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FRI
AND SAT. THE LOW AND WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN. EASTERLY TRADES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRI THEN WILL WEAKEN SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN U.S.. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER IN
THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E
CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT
APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE SUN.

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2647. ackee
If 95L does not begin to move away from the south America coast dont think it will devlop ,until it reach SW carrb probaly continue WEST die over central America
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Keeper, as always, some nice graphics outta you. Good Stuff, makes it easy to viaualize what might develop next week.

Good Job!
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Imho Mathew will reach hurricane status Friday evening in the western carib. It will then track north into the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall wednesday afternoon just west of due east on the southwest side of the northern edge of the mouth of the Ms. river, as a category 9 Hurricane on the Homer Simpson scale. Imho.. you can correct me if you feel i'm wrong. I can take it.


lulz we should liek, run for teh hills mirite lol
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2643. jonelu
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that run keeps it hovering off the coast of Nicaragua for 3 days...
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2642. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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