Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS is showing how the storm tries to get jammed into central America but then gets drawn slowly northward as it is denied access to the eastern Pacific. There is so much heat involved that the model tries to develop two systems, but in reality it will likely be just one. The GFS often has a hard time bundling a large amount of heat. It had that problem with Alex when it tried to spin off a 2nd tropical storm out of Alex's outer bands in the Gulf of Mexico.

12z GFS Day 7 surface:



You can also see the weakness in the NE GOM which in theory take whatever forms in the NW Carib to the N/NE.
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Well so far looks like the trend continues. recurvature or mexico. 95l headed to the yucatan to fizzle and lisa out to the fish. It hasn't rained here in Milton , FL in over 3 weeks. maybe more but it's really dry thanks to the high.
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12z GFS is showing how the storm tries to get jammed into central America but then gets drawn slowly northward as it is denied access to the eastern Pacific. There is so much heat involved that the model tries to develop two systems, but in reality it will likely be just one. The GFS often has a hard time bundling a large amount of heat. It had that problem with Alex when it tried to spin off a 2nd tropical storm out of Alex's outer bands in the Gulf of Mexico.

12z GFS Day 7 surface:

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Quoting MiamiThreater:


Ike, it meanders it right off the Yucatan Peninsula, without an official inland landfall.


See post 354. It definitely takes it on shore for a while in this run. Look at the 102hr forecast. Inland.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Quoting Levi32:
We can't know the details of how this situation will evolve, but we have known for a while now that there is going to be a situation, and likely a dangerous one for the U.S. coastline as well as several Caribbean countries. In this kind of a pattern you almost cannot avoid getting a storm in this area, so I doubt we'll see any fizzling. We don't know how strong this storm will be but we know that there probably will be one, threatening somebody.
Levi, what is wind shear like in the GOM this time of year?
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
Igor isn't done yet it seems... and it seems that his COC will indeed make landfall on the far southeastern portion of Newfoundland.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=updates__igors_impact_on_a _200 910&warningtype=sw?ref=stormwatch_home

Of course, if you don't speak Canadian, this may be difficult to read. =P But winds are gusting up to Cat 2 strength in places.


Sustained winds of 97 mph at this buoy off of Newfoundland, and 945 mb pressure at Cape Pine Lighthouse!
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Are the chances pretty slim that 95 could end up in South Texas?
We are saturated at this point
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Keeping it inland for what looks to be 24-36hrs before moving it back off shore. Then seems to dissipate it for 12-24hrs.

12z GFS 102hrs

I like dissipate, keeps it weaker going in the GOM.
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We can't know the details of how this situation will evolve, but we have known for a while now that there is going to be a situation, and likely a dangerous one for the U.S. coastline as well as several Caribbean countries. In this kind of a pattern you almost cannot avoid getting a storm in this area, so I doubt we'll see any fizzling. We don't know how strong this storm will be but we know that there probably will be one, threatening somebody.
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Nicaragua looks to be in for quite a pounding. Quite possibly along the lines of what it sustained with Mitch.

I was looking at tht GFS first hand for the first time in a while, and it has 95L meandering over Nicaragua for several days.

Eventually the remnants wander back into the caribbean and rejuvinate into the sub 980mb storm that eventually threatens the GOMEX.

I had friends that went to Nicaragua after Mitch. I was amazed by the AAR! It literally changed the topography of that country. There were pictures of a highway bridge that spanned over nothing. The river was redirected and not even visible in the picture...

Hope this plays out differently.
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So what from what i am reading we here on the southeast coast of florida should not be affected by this 95L
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Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:
Thanks Levi, we will be watching the gulf explode in the next few weeks.


Didn't that already happen? As if we need another mess.
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Great video Levi 32,wish you the best!
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Thanks Levi, we will be watching the gulf explode in the next few weeks.
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the most awesome hurricane chase in history!

No one has a clue what or where 95 is going to end up. The crossing Cuba, through the Bahamas, and out to sea is just as possible as any other scenario...Including dissipating over Nic/Hond...That's just comical to me to make a statement like that at this point.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Quoting kshipre1:
Hey Levi! Great to see you as always! excellent update.

fantastic synopsis. I tell ya, we here on the west coast of Florida in Tampa Bay will get ready just incase Matthew does come that far east

From what it looks like right now, I am not scared, just cautious. However, it seems like day by day the picture becomes clearer that a strong trough is going to pull this northward and maybe east enough to affect western florida.

We will see!

also, by the way, your commentating is fantastic. you are better than the guys at the NNHC!


Thanks :)
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Quoting Levi32:


UAF in Fairbanks, Alaska.


Very cool! Er, literally :) I enjoy your updates.
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361. HCW
Quoting oceanblues32:
anyone have any hurricane models of 95l that i can just c lick on a see run? am a resident of southeast florida and just concerned!!!


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Quoting TimTebow:
Can someone tell me if Hurricane Matthew is going to strike Caloosahatchie as a major?
most likely will strike Fort Myers Shores..
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anyone have any hurricane models of 95l that i can just c lick on a see run? am a resident of southeast florida and just concerned!!!
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356. JLPR2
95L looks scary! <---Wow, awesome contribution, right? XD LOL

Sorry got no time for images, off to my classes. :|
Later!
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355. IKE
CycloneOz heading to Honduras...Belize and the Yucatan?
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Keeping it inland for what looks to be 24-36hrs before moving it back off shore. Then seems to dissipate it for 12-24hrs.

12z GFS 102hrs

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Hey Levi! Great to see you as always! excellent update.

fantastic synopsis. I tell ya, we here on the west coast of Florida in Tampa Bay will get ready just incase Matthew does come that far east

From what it looks like right now, I am not scared, just cautious. However, it seems like day by day the picture becomes clearer that a strong trough is going to pull this northward and maybe east enough to affect western florida.

We will see!

also, by the way, your commentating is fantastic. you are better than the guys at the NNHC!
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Quoting cmahan:


Morning, Levi. You might have said before, but where are you going to school?


UAF in Fairbanks, Alaska.
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348. HCW
95L GREarth image pretty windy down there


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This is sad...So many good posts not showing up even when the filter is set to show bad. I think we should all start using the button a little more, and a little less of these two . you don't always have to agree with a point of view or post for it to earn a imvho.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, September 21st, with Video


Morning, Levi. You might have said before, but where are you going to school?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.