Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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2742. HCW
From Rob Lightbrown

The Canadian model ultimately forecasts this to track into the Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday and forecasts this to come ashore along the Mississippi and Alabama coastline next Thursday night or next Friday morning.
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2741. IKE
Lake Charles,LA.....

LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND SO INCREASED
POPS...STILL NOT AS HIGH AS THE LIKELY CHANCE ON THE MEX. LOOKS
LIKE A WET WEEKEND FOR A CHANGE. BLENDED THE EARLIER AND COLDER GFS WITH
THE EURO ON TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A DEEP LOW OVER
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
RECENTLY RECEIVED EURO THEN WAS AVAILABLE AT ANALYSIS TIME SO
TEMPS MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SAID...FCSTED MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO
WILL BE MOST WELCOME AND COULD BE EVEN LOWER.

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12.7n 71w
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2739. HCW
Quoting Cotillion:
Pleasant today: 62F, clear skies. We missed the Indian Summer, but that's okay.

Going to turn cold in a hurry, though. Lows of 39F by the weekend.

Anyone wanna swap?


39 is not cold and sounds perfect :) Can I paypal you money ? I would be glad to trade yucky 70's at night for that
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2737. surfmom
Good Morning~ certainly an interesting one.... everyone has brought such "lovely" pics for show & share this AM

Got my eyes wide open - hoping Matthew doesn't knock on my door

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Quoting apocalyps:
95 L very likely to become Cat3-4.
Lets hope people in florida are prepared.


Good morning! And thank you for the daily dose of gloom and doom.
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2735. IKE
Atlanta,GA. extended...

A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY CERTAIN AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DIVING OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES GETS WOUND UP INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MODEL TIMING MAY BE A BIT TOO
QUICK WITH SUCH A FEATURE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TO
REPLACE THESE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..........................................

5 day Precipitation...



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2734. scott39
The potiential track of 95L is no where near set in stone yet in the GOM. Everyone needs to stay aware from the E side of LA all the way around to the E coast of FL.
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Pleasant today: 62F, clear skies. We missed the Indian Summer, but that's okay.

Going to turn cold in a hurry, though. Lows of 39F by the weekend.

Anyone wanna swap?
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95 L very likely to become Cat3-4.
Lets hope people in florida are prepared.
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2731. HCW
95L model runs from the NHC . Have a great day :)

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2730. srada
Quoting IKE:
10 day GFS...



Good Morning Everyone!

I know the focus is on the GOM with 95L but the way the GFS is setting up, the east coast looks to get back to back hits..It shows 95L coming in the east side of FL and affecting GA and the Carolinas, then there is a second 992mb storm off the coast of Carolinas and last but not least a third 992mb storm approaching from the west that is heading for the Carolinas..Really GFS, Really?
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Invest 95-L In The Eastern Caribbean:
We have inserted information about Invest 95-L into our Atlantic Tropical Weather Page which can be accessed at http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.

The tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean has been designated Invest 95-L by the National Hurricane Center. This system will be the main concern for at least the next 7 to 10 days as environmental conditions are favorable for development and I suspect that this will be our next tropical storm (Matthew) by the end of this week or at the very latest this weekend.

Satellite imagery this morning has shown some increase in organization compared to 24 hours ago. Pretty much all of the global model guidance forecast that this will develop into a tropical cyclone over the coming days. Indications are that this system should track westward over the next couple of days and be located in the western Caribbean by about Friday. The GFS and European models forecast a landfall in Honduras and Nicaragua on Saturday before it turns northward into the northwestern Caribbean early next week. Both the European and GFS models forecast an impact on the Florida Peninsula on either September 30th or October 1st.

The Canadian model forecasts this system to track along the north coast of Honduras from Friday night through Saturday night before impacting Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday and Monday. The Canadian model ultimately forecasts this to track into the Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday and forecasts this to come ashore along the Mississippi and Alabama coastline next Thursday night or next Friday morning.

The NOGAPS model forecasts Invest 95-L to scrape along the north coast of Honduras on Saturday and then turn northwestward and impact the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday into Tuesday before tracking into the southern Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday.

I see no reasons why this will not develop into a tropical storm and probably a hurricane. Environmental conditions are quite favorable in the western Caribbean and ocean water temperatures in the western Caribbean are the warmest anywhere in the Atlantic Basin. This is a system that will need to be watched very closely. Right now, Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba are at most risk from this system and all interests in these areas should closely monitor this system. Further down the road, it is too soon to say how much of a threat this system will pose to the US Gulf coast, however, areas from the Louisiana coast eastward to the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor this system.

Right now, there are a couple of scenarios that could unfold with Invest 95-L. The first is that if the core of this system remains over water or just scrapes along the coast of Honduras, then we may be looking at a fairly strong hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean by the end of this weekend. With this system forecast to be pulled northward by an approaching trough of low pressure, we could be looking at a scenario of a strong hurricane tracking into the Gulf of Mexico by next Wednesday or so.

The second scenario is that this system will make landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday night and Saturday and end up dissipating over the mountainous terrain of Central America and never reach the Gulf of Mexico.

It should be noted that this system will produce heavy rainfall over the next couple of days across the Windward Islands, the Netherlands Antilles and the northern coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. This heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides across these areas.

Needless to say, I will be closely monitoring this system over the coming days and all interests in the western Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico should pay close attention to the progress of Invest 95-L.

For information about Tropical Storm Lisa, which is expected to remain out in the open Atlantic and not be a threat to any landmasses, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3234 .
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Those TCPH's are enough to make you cry. I don't wish anyone bad luck but we would all be better if by some luck nothing travels through that area except a cold front.
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2727. IKE
Quoting aislinnpaps:
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD AND MUCH
OF THIS NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER AND DRY.


But this will continue to protect the northern Gulf. However after it passes the northern Gulf could then be open if another storm should pull together and get into the Gulf. Correct??


But the days are getting shorter...northern GOM SST's will start dropping by next week if the models verify. The odds of a major hit here are diminishing. Getting too late in the season here. An Opal track for 95L looks less likely this morning.

I noticed the leaves are starting to fall off of the trees here in the Florida panhandle and the acorns are starting to fall and hit the tin roofs.

Welcome to fall 2010 starting today.
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2726. scott39
Quoting QMiami:
morning

Thats pretty clear. If 95L enters the GOM at the Yucatan point, look out N Gulf Coast and Fl. Panhandle. If it enters at the W side of Cuba. Look out W Coast of FL. and possible E side.
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2725. QMiami
local met here this morning said right now it looks like 2 scenarios for 95- a cold front comes down and pushes the storm central or south florida or it crosses yucatan into gulf
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2724. WxLogic
Quoting scott39:
Which means what? Slower that is?


If 95L develops it will display a slow movement. So whenever it decides to go... that location and areas around it should be in for quite a bit of rain, if it pans out that way.
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2722. QMiami
morning

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NASA Geos-5 model, same basic senerio broad low pressure in the western Caribbean.


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2720. shawn26
Sammy, those models tell one story pretty much.
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2719. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:


I was a bit afraid of this system being kind of slow... I guess your post is confirming it "...slow to push eastward...".
Which means what? Slower that is?
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THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD AND MUCH
OF THIS NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER AND DRY.


But this will continue to protect the northern Gulf. However after it passes the northern Gulf could then be open if another storm should pull together and get into the Gulf. Correct??
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2717. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Good Morning, NW Carribean track looks pretty solid. GOM probably coming more together on track soon. Looks like a N to NE track coming out NW Carribean.How far W it comes out in the GOM will determine how far N and E landfall happens on the Gulf Coast IMO.
Which this is all determined on the weakness of the High and the timing of the trough!
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Good Morning All,

Current Conditions in Barbados

Grantley Adams, BR (Airport)

Light Rain Showers
27 °C
Light Showers Rain
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 23 °C
Wind: 22 km/h / 6.2 m/s from the East
Pressure: 1010 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 30 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 487 m
Scattered Clouds 1158 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 56 m
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2714. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the GFS and ECMWF have come into a better agreement. Looks like the northern GOM will have a cold front come through by the middle of next week and 95L will be a threat to peninsula Florida...Cuba and the Bahamas.

Northern gulf coast...the clock is ticking. The fat lady is clearing her throat in anticipation.
...............................................


Here's the "pattern change"....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
510 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY THE MODELS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...THE WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE CHANCES
OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE THEN QUITE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND DRIVING A FRONT INTO AND THROUGH SE TX
ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD AND MUCH
OF THIS NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER AND DRY.



I was a bit afraid of this system being kind of slow... I guess your post is confirming it "...slow to push eastward...".
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so it looks like it will depend on the weakness or lack of weakness with the ridge.
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2712. scott39
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone, running late here.

Anything new in paths, etc.?
Good Morning, NW Carribean track looks pretty solid. GOM probably coming more together on track soon. Looks like a N to NE track coming out NW Carribean.How far W it comes out in the GOM will determine how far N and E landfall happens on the Gulf Coast IMO.
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2710. IKE
Looks like the GFS and ECMWF have come into a better agreement. Looks like the northern GOM will have a cold front come through by the middle of next week and 95L will be a threat to peninsula Florida...Cuba and the Bahamas. Subject to change.

Northern gulf coast...the clock is ticking. The fat lady is clearing her throat in anticipation.
...............................................


Here's the "pattern change"....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
510 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY THE MODELS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...THE WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE CHANCES
OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE THEN QUITE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND DRIVING A FRONT INTO AND THROUGH SE TX
ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD AND MUCH
OF THIS NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER AND DRY.

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2709. WxLogic
There's an upper level anticyclone setup around 73W or so which has been "hanging" around. Once 95L goes underneath it, it should have a better chance to increase its convection prior to getting close to C. America:

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2706. markot
shear is not going to be strong,,,,to affect matthew....
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possibility of a faster turn north?
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Good morning.

It feels weird to have no hurricanes out there, almost.

Not too surprised to see 95L being a bit patchy this morning. 'John Hope Rule' and all. Its proximity to South America probably doesn't help a lot, either. Once it clears 75W, then see.

Beyond that, how far south it goes will be key. If it travails Central America for the longest of time, the longer it'll take to re-organise.

The Euro has completely changed its tune on the last run too it seems... Lisa doesn't last long and while 95L ends up on a similar track to the GFS, it doesn't stall it for nearly as long and the intensity isn't that strong. About a TS, really.
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Good morning, everyone, running late here.

Anything new in paths, etc.?
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might just nick s florida hopefully follow the gulf stream out which would put miami on the weak side
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4743
2699. WxLogic
Quoting gordydunnot:
Wxlogic look at the radar link I posted that where the rotation is on the radar.Link


Nice link... LLC is a bit broad at this time, but should get better as it pulls away from the coast.
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2698. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:


Here's a comparison...

12HRs ago:



Now (or basically latest output currently out):



As you can see the flow is starting to become more SE in the Carib. so I will expect 95L to start pulling away soon to the WNW. How soon? I believe this might start happening at or after it crosses 70W.
Thanks
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2697. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:
MLB NWS Starting to introduce some info on the possible tropical system.

"...SLIGHT RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH GFS/ECMWF IN HANDLING
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...BUT
THE 00Z RUN SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...."
Agreement is now needed in the GOM. Time Time Time
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Florida seems to be in the cone.
Keep safe
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2695. WxLogic
Quoting scott39:
will it slow down and start moving more WNW some?


Here's a comparison...

12HRs ago:



Now (or basically latest output currently out):



As you can see the flow is starting to become more SE in the Carib. so I will expect 95L to start pulling away soon to the WNW. How soon? I believe this might start happening at or after it crosses 70W.
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2694. scott39
Quoting IKE:
GFS has it moving NE or even ENE at 174 hours.


I hope thats right and wind shear knocks it down to nothing!
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2692. WxLogic
MLB NWS Starting to introduce some info on the possible tropical system.

"...SLIGHT RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH GFS/ECMWF IN HANDLING
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...BUT
THE 00Z RUN SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...."
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.