Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

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Quoting bird72:


Oh sorry, lately the cheap shots are the order of the day, sorry again, lol:!


It's ok, it happens

Intent does not always come across when typing
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Quoting dmh1026:
Hope 95l doesn't pull a Charley....


I hope it brings us some plentiful rain!
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Quoting NASA101:
Latest 12Z Dynamical/Statisticalmodels for 95L have it hitting Yucatan and south!
So, lets not get carried away with East Gulf/FL hit just yet!


in 5 days yes, but all models that go past that, draw the system north into the Gulf of Mexico
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689. IKE
72 hour ECMWF...

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
679. bird72 6:11 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

Wow what a way to be a jerk about it, I was joking with you and actually thought it was funny.

It was not a shot on you at all.


Oh sorry, lately the cheap shots are the order of the day, sorry again, lol:!
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Latest 12Z Dynamical/Statisticalmodels for 95L have it hitting Yucatan and south!
So, lets not get carried away with East Gulf/FL hit just yet!
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Quoting IKE:
95L may wind up with a track similar to this beast...



OH boy I hope not.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think it is a bit too soon to look for analog tracks


Just intrigued by the hints: it's not a common track if it does a 'triple whammy', so to say.
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683. HCW
18Z 95L model runs from the NHC

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679. bird72 6:11 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

Wow what a way to be a jerk about it, I was joking with you and actually thought it was funny.

It was not a shot on you at all.
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:
the "storm" is forecast to go straight west and not even come close to the US. but go right ahead and board up now. might as well get in the closet with the mattress too. emerge on Nov. 30.

I hope you are being sarcastic, considering there is not a forecast track yet on the system.
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678. IKE
12Z ECMWF @ 24 hours...



48 hours...

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Quoting btwntx08:
lots of rain in my area now becoming more widespead ughhh


I see from the radar in CC that you are still getting clobbered! Victoria has lucked out in the last couple of days.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
WINDS BACK UP TO 80 MPH....


HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 54A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
200 PM AST TUE SEP 21 2010

...IGOR PRODUCING GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE OVER PORTIONS OF
NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.5N 52.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
TO FOGO ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BURGEO NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
TO TRITON
* THE ISLANDS OF ST-PIERRE AND MIQUELON

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 48.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 46 MPH...74 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
ISLAND OF NEWFOUNDLAND.


SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CANADA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
IGOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY. BONAVISTA NEWFOUNDLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 73 MPH...117 KM/HR...AND A GUST TO 90 MPH...144 KM/HR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
460 MILES...740 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

MY GOD HURRICANE WINDS WAY UP IN NEWFOUNDLAND


Is that a record for how far the tropical storm force/hurricane winds extend out?
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Quoting swlaaggie:


Indeed! When asked how I'm coping with life in the 50's, I always say there is a very young man trapped in this older man's body.....and I try to live that way, although my back will sometimes take issue with that philosophy.

:-)


I have always felt 19; when asked I tell people that I am 19 with 31 years experience...
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Hope 95l doesn't pull a Charley....
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Quoting hydrus:
Good afternoon Flood..If this NCEP model pans out, The Gulf will not get much of anything....Link


Sorry, man, I just saw this post...95L is looking somewhat threatening...my "floodman" sense isn't really tingling with this one though
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Quoting swlavp:


Unfortunately some of us ARE old enough to remember him...lol
And some of us are old enough but can't.
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Quoting 69Viking:


I can throw a rock from my back yard and hit the sound. I lived a lot further inland back then too. My house is one row in from the water, the houses in front of me are waterfront. Luckily my house is raised 5' off the ground and the garage walls are cement, Dennis put 20 inches of water in my garage. Ironically the house is up for sale but the market sucks right now, my plan is to move further inland when I do sell. Dennis was enough of to convince me of that!


Ever since I saw what Katrina did to the Southern Mississippi towns near their sound. I've been a little weary of something like that happening in FWB:0
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Quoting reedzone:
You have to be insane to like any of the model runs at this point. No one wants a storm, well at least after you've been through one. Hopefully this will stay weak, but odds are that it becomes a powerful storm do to all that heat in the Caribbean that has NOT been touched this year.
Reed, no disrespect intended, but SOME of us DO like storms and actually look forward to the season. One of the main reasons I relocated to FL in the first place. I have been through Wilma, Fay, and Ike and loved every minute of it. Now, I don't wish any destruction or loss of life on anyone, but your statement may be a little overzealous. I will happily admit that I truly enjoy a good...umm...blowing..as it were. =)
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667. IKE
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
the "storm" is forecast to go straight west and not even come close to the US. but go right ahead and board up now. might as well get in the closet with the mattress too. emerge on Nov. 30.


Is it safe to come out then or should I wait til Christmas?
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If one has a disability...or knows or cares for someone who does...this is a good time to consider a few things:

- If you're staying...make sure you have plenty of whatever medications you may take...

- If evacuating, line up accessible transportation...

- If sheltering, make sure the shelter is accessible...and be specific with accessibility questions...the Red Cross has a horrible track record with this
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Quoting IKE:


Sorry...I'm not trying to scare anyone.


I know you're not, that's what is scary!! LOL!! ;)
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Quoting lilthns:
from post 570 "Hi, everyone. Long time lurker here. (:-

The Weather Underground forecast for Qikiqtaruaq is showing a tropical storm warning with respect to Igor.

What makes this remarkable is that Qikiqtaruaq is a small island off the coast of Baffin Island, and lies within the Arctic Circle at 67.6N.

Does anyone have any insight as to whether the effects of a tropical storm have ever been felt so far north before?"

I'd love to know this as well.


I'm not an expert. I just found this on wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tropical_cyclones#Extreme_latitudes
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663. HCW
We have plenty of time to watch this one. IF the HWRF model is correct this is where 95L will be located Sunday afternoon.

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Quoting presslord:



...which is located in South Carolina...
And how does this make a difference to someone who isn't from the Cacalacies?
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Quoting Grecojdw:


I remember clearly, I stayed for it. At the time I lived near Bruner Middle School and it was rough. Now I live even closer to the sound:0


I can throw a rock from my back yard and hit the sound. I lived a lot further inland back then too. My house is one row in from the water, the houses in front of me are waterfront. Luckily my house is raised 5' off the ground and the garage walls are cement, Dennis put 20 inches of water in my garage. Ironically the house is up for sale but the market sucks right now, my plan is to move further inland when I do sell. Dennis was enough of to convince me of that!
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My discussion of 95L and how this system is developed by GFS:
Link
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Actually a loop back was shown on a couple runs a day or two back...Granted it looped back the other way towards the Bahamas.

See y'all later.


That's true.

If it were to stay a bit north and avoid the Nic/Hon border, it could resemble this:



Or this:

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HurricaneIgor's heading had turned northward to (9.5degrees north of) NorthNorthEast
from its previous heading of (6.1degrees north of) NorthNorthEast
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~54.3mph(~87.5km/h)

20Sep 06pmGMT - - 37.1n62.5w - - 75mph - - 965mb - - #50A
20Sep 09pmGMT - - 38.2n61.5w - - 75mph - - 968mb - - #51
21Sep 12amGMT - - 39.0n60.5w - - 75mph - - 968mb - - #51A
21Sep 03amGMT - - 39.9n59.3w - - 75mph - - 968mb - - NHC.Adv.#52
21Sep 06amGMT - - 41.3n57.5w - - 75mph - - 968mb - - #52A
21Sep 09amGMT - - 42.8n55.1w - - 75mph - - 966mb - - #53
21Sep 12pmGMT - - 44.5n53.5w - - 75mph - - 960mb - - #53A
20Sep 03pmGMT - - 46.2n52.8w - - 75mph - - 952mb - - #54
21Sep 06pmGMT - - 48.5n52.0w - - 80mph - - 950mb - - #54A

Copy&paste 37.1n62.5w, 38.2n61.5w, 39.0n60.5w, 39.9n59.3w, 41.3n57.5w-42.8n55.1w, 42.8n55.1w-44.5n53.5w, 44.5n53.5w-46.2n52.8w, 46.2n52.8w-48.5n52.0w, goh, yyt into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Actually a loop back was shown on a couple runs a day or two back...Granted it looped back the other way towards the Bahamas.

See y'all later.


Later,SJ. Have fun.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Agreed. How about a circulation first, at least.


according to the NHC, there is a circulation
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Quoting dmh1026:
Wilma's track come to my mind..


Not just the track, again these waters haven't been touched since Alex.
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Quoting Cotillion:
Ignoring the loop back, here's a possible (though it takes it over Central America perhaps a bit too much - also swings it over Cuba rather than the GoM. That said, it was nasty for the Keys):





Actually a loop back was shown on a couple runs a day or two back...Granted it looped back the other way towards the Bahamas.

See y'all later.
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Quoting Cotillion:
Ignoring the loop back, here's a possible (though it takes it over Central America perhaps a bit too much - also swings it over Cuba rather than the GoM. That said, it was nasty for the Keys):




Hmmm....
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644. IKE
Quoting 69Viking:


IKE I remember that one on Oct. 4th, 1995 all too well! Never thought I'd see huge sailboats sitting in the median of Hwy 98 but I did. We don't need another one like that but the timing of it won't be that far off from being the same time of year, kind of scary when you think about it.


I saw them too. Incredible sight.
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Afternoon all. A beautiful fall like day here in the northeast.

95L looks to be a real pain for Florida.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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